Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle – 20 Dec 2025

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sat, Dec 20 · 17:45 Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam

Excelsior 14th · 16 pts · 15 played DLWWL

2–1Full time

PEC Zwolle 11th · 19 pts · 16 played WDWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Excelsior had 14.9 days of rest, PEC Zwolle 6.9 and had to travel 128 km.

Away travel128 kmRest days14.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d0 · 2

Excelsior39%

Draw27%

PEC Zwolle34%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.31

Excelsior39%

Draw27%

PEC Zwolle34%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.29

Excelsior39%

Draw27%

PEC Zwolle34%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.28

Excelsior32%

Draw27%

PEC Zwolle42%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.47

Excelsior38%

Draw27%

PEC Zwolle35%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.32

Over 2.5 51% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rotterdam)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsSander van der Eijk

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.19
Matches 48

Team strength

Excelsior

PEC Zwolle

16 L90 StrengthIn forecast 21

21 Current StrengthIn forecast 16

21 AttackIn forecast 17

18 DefenceIn forecast 14

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Excelsior

Attack—

Defense risk—

PEC Zwolle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Excelsior

PEC Zwolle

0.93 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.25

1.73 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.25

1.26 xGVia Att/Def 1.06

2.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.70

-0.33 Goals minus xGContext +0.19

73% Scored inContext 81%

20% Clean sheetsContext 25%

11.73 ShotsContext 8.38

4.13 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.07

35% On target shareContext 34%

7.40 Shots in the boxContext 5.06

61% Box shareContext 61%

8% ConversionContext 15%

1.22 OffsidesContext 2.14

16.80 Shots allowedContext 17.63

6.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.56

4.67 BlocksContext 4.13

4.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.44

71% Save rateContext 68%

44% PossessionIn forecast 41%

361 PassesContext 347

279 Accurate passesContext 270

77% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.73

13.60 FoulsContext 10.69

9.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.88

1.53 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 15 and 16 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.70

1.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.09

1.97 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.82

-0.25 Goals minus xGContext +0.31

80% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.00 ShotsContext 8.70

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.44

35% On target shareContext 36%

7.60 Shots in the boxContext 5.10

60% Box shareContext 60%

9% ConversionContext 16%

1.40 OffsidesContext 2.11

15.80 Shots allowedContext 18.10

5.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.40

4.20 BlocksContext 4.60

4.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

73% Save rateContext 63%

44% PossessionIn forecast 42%

363 PassesContext 345

282 Accurate passesContext 269

78% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.60

13.40 FoulsContext 11.10

8.80 Fouls sufferedContext 13.10

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Excelsior

Rest14.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

PEC Zwolle

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel128 km256 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Excelsior	PEC Zwolle
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	14.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 5 Dec	6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 13 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	128 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	256 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 3	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	21.1	21

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Excelsior Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1S. van Gassel(G)

12A. Zagré 3R. Meissen 4C. Widell 2Ilias Bronkhorst

20L. Hartjes 23I. Yegoian

11G. de Regt 10N. Naujoks 30D. Sanches Fernandes

33Jerolldino Bergraaf

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

PEC Zwolle Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

16T. de Graaff(G)

2S. Floranus 4A. MacNulty 28S. Graves 6T. Gooijer

8Z. Buurmeester 30R. Thomas

22K. de Rooij 25T. Oosting 7S. Shoretire

10Koen Kostons

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Excelsior Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

PEC Zwolle Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Excelsior-0.4 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
PEC Zwolle+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Excelsior · Home 1.13points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 3-0-5
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 1.13

PEC Zwolle · Away 0.75points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 1-3-4
Scored: 1.63
Conceded: 3.13

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 15 this season

Opponent	Excelsior	PEC Zwolle
Groningen	L 0–2 H	D 2–2 A
NAC Breda	W 1–0 H	D 2–2 A
Ajax	W 2–1 A	L 1–3 A
Heracles	L 1–2 H	L 2–8 A
Telstar	D 2–2 A	W 2–0 A
GO Ahead Eagles	L 0–2 A	L 0–2 H
Fortuna Sittard	W 1–0 H	W 1–0 H
Heerenveen	L 1–2 A	W 2–1 H
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–2 H	L 0–4 H
FC Volendam	W 2–1 A	L 1–2 A
Sparta Rotterdam	L 0–1 H	W 1–0 H
Twente	W 1–0 H	W 1–0 H
Utrecht	L 1–4 A	L 0–2 H
Feyenoord	L 1–2 H	L 1–6 A
NEC Nijmegen	L 0–5 A	D 2–2 H
Points	16 of 45 · 1.07 per game	18 of 45 · 1.20 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Excelsior wins0 draws1 PEC Zwolle wins

Goals per game2.00 – 4.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

22 Oct 2023Excelsior2–4PEC Zwolle

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Excelsior	PEC Zwolle	Forecast
Scored per game	0.93	1.25
Conceded per game	1.73	2.25
Match goals	2.67	3.50	2.71
Over 1.5	73%	81%
Over 2.5	60%	63%	51%
Over 3.5	20%	50%
Both teams scored	53%	56%	56%
Clean sheets	20%	25%
Failed to score	27%	19%
Games	15	16

	Excelsior	PEC Zwolle	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.40
Conceded per game	1.40	2.70
Match goals	2.50	4.10	2.71
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	80%	51%
Over 3.5	10%	60%
Both teams scored	60%	70%	56%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Excelsior	PEC Zwolle	League
Corners
Corners won	4.13	2.71
Corners conceded	5.40	6.07
Match total	9.53	8.78	10.21
Over 8.5	60% 9/15	50% 7/14
Over 9.5	33% 5/15	43% 6/14
Over 10.5	33% 5/15	29% 4/14
Cards
Cards	1.73	2.25
Opponent cards	1.47	1.69
Match total	3.20	3.94	3.59
Over 3.5	40% 6/15	56% 9/16
Over 4.5	33% 5/15	38% 6/16

	Excelsior	PEC Zwolle	League
Corners
Corners won	4.20	3.11
Corners conceded	5.50	6.22
Match total	9.70	9.33	10.21
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.20
Opponent cards	1.60	1.70
Match total	3.40	3.90	3.59
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sander van der Eijk Netherlands · 48 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.46league 3.36

Red cards0.33league 0.22

Cards 5+33%league 32%

Fouls22.6league 21.9

Penalties0.19league 0.31

Home wins46%league 48%

Excelsior

No previous matches with this referee.

PEC Zwolle5 with this referee

Record1-0-4 Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.6 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L13 Sep 25A · Ajax1–31
L9 Feb 25A · AZ Alkmaar0–23
W29 Sep 24H · Almere City FC1–02
L24 Aug 24A · NEC Nijmegen0–14
L8 Oct 23H · Feyenoord0–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.