Excelsior
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were slight favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Excelsior. Excelsior had 8 days of rest, PSV Eindhoven 7 and had to travel 87 km.
Away travel87 kmRest days8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Excelsior23%
Draw22%
PSV Eindhoven55%
Excelsior16%
Draw21%
PSV Eindhoven63%
Excelsior23%
Draw22%
PSV Eindhoven55%
Excelsior18%
Draw19%
PSV Eindhoven63%
Excelsior24%
Draw22%
PSV Eindhoven54%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMarc Nagtegaal
- Cards per match 2.6
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 57
Team strength
Excelsior
PSV Eindhoven
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
75
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
21
AttackIn forecast
60
18
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ExcelsiorPSV Eindhoven
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
—
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
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On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
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—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
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BlocksContext
—
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.81
xGVia Att/Def
2.06
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.94
90%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
14.40
ShotsContext
16.40
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.00
35%
On target shareContext
43%
9.60
Shots in the boxContext
11.40
64%
Box shareContext
69%
15%
ConversionContext
18%
1.63
OffsidesContext
1.83
12.20
Shots allowedContext
11.70
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
3.60
BlocksContext
4.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
68%
Save rateContext
69%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
397
PassesContext
541
311
Accurate passesContext
469
78%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.91
Team ratingContext
7.14
10.50
FoulsContext
8.40
8.60
Fouls sufferedContext
6.70
0.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Excelsior
W
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km337 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 62 · 3 pts vs 1.6 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected
- W7 AugA · Cambuur4–01.1 xPts
PSV Eindhoven
D
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel87 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 39 · 1 pts vs 2.2 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected
- D8 AugH · Fortuna Sittard2–22.6 xPts
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Excelsior |
PSV Eindhoven |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Eredivisie 2026-2027, 7 Aug | 7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 8 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 87 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 337 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.9 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Excelsior
Confirmed XI
1S. van Gassel(G)
15Simon Janssen
14J. Plug
4C. Widell
3R. Meissen
6D. van Vianen
20L. Hartjes
8I. Yegoian
21I. Silva Timas
19D. Garden
7Aymen Sliti
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
32M. Kovář(G)
17Mauro Júnior
4A. Obispo
6R. Flamingo
8S. Dest
10P. Wanner
23J. Veerman
20G. Til
7R. van Bommel
9R. Pepi
5I. Perišić
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Excelsior
Absences are shown before kick-off
PSV Eindhoven
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Excelsior+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- PSV Eindhoven+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Excelsior · Home
No home games yet this season.
PSV Eindhoven · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Excelsior wins0 draws3 PSV Eindhoven wins
Goals per game1.00 – 3.33
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 10 Jan 2026PSV Eindhoven5–1Excelsior
- 27 Sep 2025Excelsior1–2PSV Eindhoven
- 13 Jan 2024PSV Eindhoven3–1Excelsior
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Excelsior | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 4.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.21 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Excelsior | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 4.70 | 3.21 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 90% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Excelsior | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.00 | — | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | — | |
| Match total | 13.00 | — | 11.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | — | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | — | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 1/1 | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 0.00 | 2.00 | 2.82 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Excelsior | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 6.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 11.56 | 11.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 2.10 | 2.60 | 2.82 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marc Nagtegaal Netherlands · 57 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.53league 2.67
Red cards0.11league 0.08
Cards 5+21%league 17%
Fouls19.4league 23.0
Penalties0.21league 0.00
Home wins58%league 33%
Excelsior5 with this referee
Record1-2-2
Cards · opp.0.8 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D1 Feb 26H · Ajax2–21
- W20 Sep 25A · FC Volendam2–12
- L25 Feb 24H · Vitesse1–20
- L13 Jan 24A · PSV Eindhoven1–30
- D12 Nov 23A · Utrecht2–21
PSV Eindhoven6 with this referee
Record5-0-1
Cards · opp.0.8 · 1.2
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W23 Apr 26H · PEC Zwolle6–11
- L22 Mar 26A · Telstar1–32
- W8 Feb 26A · Groningen2–11
- W22 Nov 25A · NAC Breda1–01
- W13 Jan 24H · Excelsior3–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Excelsior1 games · scored 4 · conceded 0
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
PSV Eindhoven1 games · scored 2 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Excelsior10 games · scored 21 · conceded 14
2
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
5
1
31-45
3
5
46-60
5
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 30 · conceded 17
3
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
5
3
31-45
7
1
46-60
4
3
61-75
9
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
