Excelsior
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Excelsior22.8%fair odds 4.38
Draw22.7%fair odds 4.40
PSV Eindhoven54.4%fair odds 1.84
Expected goals1.23 – 1.98total 3.21
Likeliest score1–110.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
PSV Eindhoven
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Excelsior ↓ · PSV Eindhoven → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Excelsior goals, columns PSV Eindhoven goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.3%9.68
- 1–29.7%10.27
- 0–27.9%12.62
- 0–17.5%13.39
- 1–36.4%15.53
- 2–16.0%16.60
- 2–26.0%16.73
- 0–35.2%19.07
- 0–04.5%22.01
- 1–04.4%22.61
Winning margin
3.0%
Excelsior by 3+
fair 33.42
6.4%
Excelsior by 2
fair 15.66
13.5%
Excelsior by 1
fair 7.43
22.7%
Draw
fair 4.40
22.1%
PSV Eindhoven by 1
fair 4.53
16.7%
PSV Eindhoven by 2
fair 5.99
15.7%
PSV Eindhoven by 3+
fair 6.38
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
22%5+
Excelsior goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
PSV Eindhoven goals
14%0
27%1
27%2
18%3
14%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior win | 22.8% | 23.5% | -0.7 pp |
| Draw | 22.7% | 23.6% | -0.8 pp |
| PSV Eindhoven win | 54.4% | 53.0% | +1.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 62.3% | 59.5% | +2.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 61.5% | 59.7% | +1.8 pp |
| Expected goals Excelsior | 1.23 | 1.20 | +0.03 |
| Expected goals PSV Eindhoven | 1.98 | 1.89 | +0.10 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Excelsior win22.8%4.38
- Draw22.7%4.40
- PSV Eindhoven win54.4%1.84
- Double chance Excelsior or draw45.6%2.19
- Double chance Excelsior or PSV Eindhoven77.3%1.29
- Double chance PSV Eindhoven or draw77.2%1.30
- Draw no bet Excelsior29.6%3.38
- Draw no bet PSV Eindhoven70.4%1.42
Goals
- Over 0.595.5%1.05
- Over 1.583.6%1.20
- Over 2.562.3%1.61
- Over 3.540.0%2.50
- Over 4.522.2%4.51
- Under 1.516.4%6.09
- Under 2.537.7%2.65
- Under 3.560.0%1.67
Both teams to score
- Yes61.5%1.63
- No38.5%2.60
- Yes and over 2.551.2%1.95
- Excelsior win and yes13.6%7.33
- Draw and yes18.2%5.50
- PSV Eindhoven win and yes29.7%3.37
Team goals
- Excelsior over 0.570.7%1.41
- Excelsior over 1.534.8%2.88
- Excelsior over 2.512.7%7.89
- PSV Eindhoven over 0.586.3%1.16
- PSV Eindhoven over 1.559.0%1.70
- PSV Eindhoven over 2.531.9%3.13
- Excelsior clean sheet13.7%7.28
- PSV Eindhoven clean sheet29.3%3.41
- Excelsior win to nil9.2%10.87
- PSV Eindhoven win to nil24.7%4.04
Handicap
- Excelsior −1.59.4%10.66
- Excelsior −2.53.0%33.42
- PSV Eindhoven +1.590.6%1.10
- PSV Eindhoven +2.597.0%1.03
- PSV Eindhoven −1.532.4%3.09
- Excelsior +1.567.6%1.48
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored12
Favourite won50.0%
Avg chance given to result39.4%
1X2 Brier0.637
Over 2.5 called right66.7%
BTTS called right50.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 38.7% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 2 | 44.6% | 0.0% |
| 50–60% | 6 | 56.6% | 66.7% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 65.4% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 84.4% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 12 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 12 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.