Excelsior
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Excelsior were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Excelsior. Excelsior had 4.7 days of rest, Utrecht 4.9 and had to travel 48 km.
Away travel48 kmRest days4.7 · 4.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Excelsior55%
Draw22%
Utrecht23%
Excelsior41%
Draw26%
Utrecht33%
Excelsior54%
Draw22%
Utrecht24%
Excelsior47%
Draw24%
Utrecht30%
Excelsior55%
Draw21%
Utrecht23%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSander van der Eijk
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 69
Team strength
Excelsior
Utrecht
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
31
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
21
AttackIn forecast
32
18
DefenceIn forecast
31
66
Form indexContext
10
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUtrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ExcelsiorUtrecht
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
3.60
1.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.11
+0.47
Goals minus xGContext
+0.45
100%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.40
ShotsContext
11.60
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
40%
On target shareContext
35%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
10.50
70%
Box shareContext
74%
19%
ConversionContext
16%
1.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.60
Shots allowedContext
19.40
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
8.00
4.40
BlocksContext
4.80
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
71%
Save rateContext
53%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
376
PassesContext
362
295
Accurate passesContext
283
78%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.49
12.60
FoulsContext
18.00
6.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.60
1.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.53
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.69
+0.65
Goals minus xGContext
+0.27
100%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.50
ShotsContext
14.60
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
37%
On target shareContext
33%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
11.11
64%
Box shareContext
69%
19%
ConversionContext
12%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.75
13.00
Shots allowedContext
16.20
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.20
4.50
BlocksContext
3.50
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
69%
Save rateContext
58%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
394
PassesContext
386
311
Accurate passesContext
314
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.70
12.00
FoulsContext
13.60
6.90
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
0.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Excelsior
WLWWD
Rest4.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km307 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 66 · 10 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +3.5 vs expected
Utrecht
LLDLD
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel48 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 10 · 2 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -4.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Excelsior |
Utrecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 8 Sep | 4.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 8 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 48 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 307 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.3 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Excelsior
Confirmed XI
1S. van Gassel(G)
12K. Bos
14J. Plug
4C. Widell
2E. da Silva Moreira
3R. Meissen
30Á. Þorsteinsson
20L. Hartjes
8I. Yegoian
7Aymen Sliti
19D. Garden
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
1V. Barkas(G)
5N. Panagiotou
3M. Didden
2S. Horemans
92A. Zagré
34D. van den Berg
20D. de Wit
23N. Vesterlund
15A. Blake
9A. Stepanov
11Ángel Alarcón
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Excelsior
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Utrecht
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Excelsior+1.1 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Utrecht-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Excelsior · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Utrecht · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Excelsior | Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 2–1 H | D 3–3 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–2 H | L 1–6 H |
| Points | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Excelsior wins2 draws1 Utrecht wins
Goals per game2.25 – 1.75
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 26 Apr 2026Excelsior5–0Utrecht
- 24 Aug 2025Utrecht4–1Excelsior
- 27 Jan 2024Excelsior1–1Utrecht
- 12 Nov 2023Utrecht2–2Excelsior
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Excelsior | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.40 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 3.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 5.40 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 80% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 100% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Excelsior | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.60 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.80 | 4.40 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 80% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Excelsior | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 10.50 | 10.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.80 | 0.80 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 3.40 | 2.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 1/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Excelsior | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.44 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.00 | 10.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.80 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 2.20 | 2.90 | 2.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sander van der Eijk Netherlands · 69 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.41league 2.73
Red cards0.26league 0.06
Cards 5+32%league 14%
Fouls21.8league 21.0
Penalties0.17league 0.24
Home wins48%league 27%
Excelsior2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.0.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W26 Apr 26H · Utrecht5–00
- W20 Dec 25H · PEC Zwolle2–11
Utrecht3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L26 Apr 26A · Excelsior0–53
- D15 Dec 24H · GO Ahead Eagles3–31
- W16 Sep 23A · Heracles3–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Excelsior5 games · scored 12 · conceded 5
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Utrecht5 games · scored 9 · conceded 18
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
5
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
6
76-90
Excelsior10 games · scored 26 · conceded 12
3
5
0-15
3
16-30
7
31-45
3
5
46-60
5
61-75
5
2
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 18 · conceded 26
1
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
4
7
46-60
3
2
61-75
8
9
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
