Excelsior
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Excelsior54.4%fair odds 1.84
Draw23.0%fair odds 4.35
Utrecht22.6%fair odds 4.43
Expected goals1.95 – 1.20total 3.15
Likeliest score1–110.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Utrecht
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Excelsior ↓ · Utrecht → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.6 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Excelsior goals, columns Utrecht goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.6%9.47
- 2–19.8%10.22
- 2–08.2%12.22
- 1–07.9%12.73
- 3–16.4%15.71
- 1–26.0%16.68
- 2–25.8%17.09
- 3–05.3%18.79
- 0–04.8%20.71
- 0–14.6%21.71
Winning margin
15.4%
Excelsior by 3+
fair 6.48
16.7%
Excelsior by 2
fair 5.98
22.3%
Excelsior by 1
fair 4.49
23.0%
Draw
fair 4.35
13.4%
Utrecht by 1
fair 7.44
6.3%
Utrecht by 2
fair 15.93
2.9%
Utrecht by 3+
fair 34.97
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
12%1
22%2
22%3
18%4
21%5+
Excelsior goals
14%0
28%1
27%2
18%3
13%4+
Utrecht goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior win | 54.4% | 54.9% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 23.0% | 22.5% | +0.5 pp |
| Utrecht win | 22.6% | 22.7% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 60.9% | 63.2% | -2.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 60.4% | 62.1% | -1.8 pp |
| Expected goals Excelsior | 1.95 | 2.02 | -0.07 |
| Expected goals Utrecht | 1.20 | 1.24 | -0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Excelsior win54.4%1.84
- Draw23.0%4.35
- Utrecht win22.6%4.43
- Double chance Excelsior or draw77.4%1.29
- Double chance Excelsior or Utrecht77.0%1.30
- Double chance Utrecht or draw45.6%2.19
- Draw no bet Excelsior70.7%1.41
- Draw no bet Utrecht29.3%3.41
Goals
- Over 0.595.2%1.05
- Over 1.582.7%1.21
- Over 2.560.9%1.64
- Over 3.538.6%2.59
- Over 4.521.0%4.76
- Under 1.517.3%5.78
- Under 2.539.1%2.56
- Under 3.561.4%1.63
Both teams to score
- Yes60.4%1.66
- No39.6%2.52
- Yes and over 2.549.8%2.01
- Excelsior win and yes29.0%3.45
- Draw and yes18.2%5.50
- Utrecht win and yes13.2%7.57
Team goals
- Excelsior over 0.585.8%1.17
- Excelsior over 1.558.1%1.72
- Excelsior over 2.531.0%3.22
- Utrecht over 0.569.8%1.43
- Utrecht over 1.533.6%2.98
- Utrecht over 2.512.0%8.36
- Excelsior clean sheet30.2%3.31
- Utrecht clean sheet14.2%7.04
- Excelsior win to nil25.4%3.93
- Utrecht win to nil9.4%10.66
Handicap
- Excelsior −1.532.1%3.11
- Excelsior −2.515.4%6.48
- Utrecht +1.567.9%1.47
- Utrecht +2.584.6%1.18
- Utrecht −1.59.1%10.94
- Excelsior +1.590.9%1.10
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored49
Favourite won55.1%
Avg chance given to result41.1%
1X2 Brier0.610
Over 2.5 called right79.6%
BTTS called right73.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 3 | 38.9% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 14 | 45.7% | 42.9% |
| 50–60% | 18 | 55.3% | 66.7% |
| 60–70% | 8 | 65.8% | 62.5% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 73.1% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 83.9% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 24 of 49 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6564 | 0.6702 |
| Avg chance given to result | 38.6% | 38.7% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 24 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 49 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.