Eyüpspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Eyüpspor were slight favourites.
Eyüpspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (19 vs 13). Absences weigh more on Antalyaspor. Eyüpspor had 9 days of rest, Antalyaspor 8.2 and had to travel 481 km.
Away travel481 kmRest days9 · 8.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
Eyüpspor53%
Draw25%
Antalyaspor23%
Eyüpspor51%
Draw25%
Antalyaspor24%
Eyüpspor51%
Draw25%
Antalyaspor23%
Eyüpspor45%
Draw26%
Antalyaspor29%
Eyüpspor52%
Draw25%
Antalyaspor23%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
RefereeAlper Akarsu
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 20
Team strength
Eyüpspor
Antalyaspor
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
13
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
9
AttackIn forecast
11
10
DefenceIn forecast
14
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAntalyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EyüpsporAntalyaspor
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
0.80
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
-0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
40%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.20
ShotsContext
9.00
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
30%
On target shareContext
51%
6.30
Shots in the boxContext
6.20
57%
Box shareContext
65%
5%
ConversionContext
12%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.78
13.30
Shots allowedContext
15.80
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
4.11
BlocksContext
3.50
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
75%
Save rateContext
64%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
380
PassesContext
342
311
Accurate passesContext
275
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.70
10.70
FoulsContext
11.80
15.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.70
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
0.80
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
-0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
40%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.20
ShotsContext
9.00
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
30%
On target shareContext
51%
6.30
Shots in the boxContext
6.20
57%
Box shareContext
65%
5%
ConversionContext
12%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.78
13.30
Shots allowedContext
15.80
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
4.11
BlocksContext
3.50
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
75%
Save rateContext
64%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
380
PassesContext
342
311
Accurate passesContext
275
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.70
10.70
FoulsContext
11.80
15.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.70
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Eyüpspor
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,807 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Antalyaspor
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel481 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Eyüpspor |
Antalyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 25 Oct | 8.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 26 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 481 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,807 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Eyüpspor
Confirmed XI
1Marcos Felipe(G)
77C. Meraş
18N. Mujakić
6R. Yalçın
2Calegari
20M. Łęgowski
10K. Demirbay
11S. Gürler
30Y. Kayan
7H. Akbunar
9M. Thiam
Antalyaspor
Confirmed XI
21A. Yiğiter(G)
2S. Karakoc
14G. Dzhikiya
23Jesper Ceesay
30L. Giannetti
7B. Balcı
8R. Safuri
88D. Šarić
10A. Ömür
22S. van de Streek
77Yohan Boli
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Eyüpspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Antalyaspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Eyüpspor+1.2 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Antalyaspor-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Eyüpspor · Home
1.40points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.40
Antalyaspor · Away
1.20points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Eyüpspor | Antalyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Trabzonspor | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Kasimpasa | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Genclerbirligi | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | D 0–0 A | L 0–4 H |
| Points | 4 of 12 · 1.00 per game | 6 of 12 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Eyüpspor wins0 draws0 Antalyaspor wins
Goals per game3.00 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 24 May 2025Eyüpspor2–1Antalyaspor
- 4 Jan 2025Antalyaspor1–4Eyüpspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Eyüpspor | Antalyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 3.10 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Eyüpspor | Antalyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 3.10 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Eyüpspor | Antalyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.78 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 10.45 | 9.40 | 9.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 5.60 | 4.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Eyüpspor | Antalyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.78 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 10.45 | 9.40 | 9.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 5.60 | 4.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alper Akarsu 20 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.75league 4.63
Red cards0.15league 0.29
Cards 5+55%league 53%
Fouls23.3league 26.2
Penalties0.40league 0.27
Home wins45%league 38%
Eyüpspor2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.4.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W14 Apr 25H · Adana Demirspor6–03
- L3 Mar 25A · Gazişehir Gaziantep1–36
Antalyaspor3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W9 Aug 25H · Kasimpasa2–13
- D18 May 25H · Gazişehir Gaziantep0–02
- W9 Nov 24H · BB Bodrumspor3–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Eyüpspor10 games · scored 6 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
Antalyaspor10 games · scored 11 · conceded 20
2
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
4
6
76-90
Eyüpspor10 games · scored 6 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
Antalyaspor10 games · scored 11 · conceded 20
2
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
4
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
