Falkirk
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Scottish Premiership 2026-2027
Knockout phase Sat, Oct 31 · 15:00
Falkirk Community Stadium, Falkirk
Falkirk18.5%fair odds 5.39
Draw19.5%fair odds 5.12
Celtic61.9%fair odds 1.61
Expected goals1.27 – 2.40total 3.67
Likeliest score1–29.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Celtic
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Falkirk ↓ · Celtic → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Falkirk goals, columns Celtic goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–29.3%10.72
- 1–18.2%12.20
- 1–37.5%13.42
- 0–27.4%13.60
- 2–25.9%16.90
- 0–35.9%17.03
- 0–15.7%17.48
- 2–14.9%20.25
- 2–34.7%21.16
- 1–44.5%22.40
Winning margin
2.4%
Falkirk by 3+
fair 41.52
5.1%
Falkirk by 2
fair 19.51
11.0%
Falkirk by 1
fair 9.08
19.5%
Draw
fair 5.12
21.2%
Celtic by 1
fair 4.72
18.3%
Celtic by 2
fair 5.47
22.5%
Celtic by 3+
fair 4.45
Goal distribution
Total goals
3%0
9%1
18%2
21%3
19%4
31%5+
Falkirk goals
28%0
36%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
Celtic goals
9%0
22%1
26%2
21%3
22%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falkirk win | 18.5% | 16.3% | +2.2 pp |
| Draw | 19.5% | 18.6% | +0.9 pp |
| Celtic win | 61.9% | 65.0% | -3.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 70.9% | 71.1% | -0.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 65.7% | 64.4% | +1.4 pp |
| Expected goals Falkirk | 1.27 | 1.20 | +0.07 |
| Expected goals Celtic | 2.40 | 2.48 | -0.08 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Falkirk win18.5%5.39
- Draw19.5%5.12
- Celtic win61.9%1.61
- Double chance Falkirk or draw38.1%2.63
- Double chance Falkirk or Celtic80.5%1.24
- Double chance Celtic or draw81.5%1.23
- Draw no bet Falkirk23.0%4.34
- Draw no bet Celtic77.0%1.30
Goals
- Over 0.597.0%1.03
- Over 1.588.5%1.13
- Over 2.570.9%1.41
- Over 3.549.9%2.01
- Over 4.530.6%3.27
- Under 1.511.5%8.67
- Under 2.529.1%3.43
- Under 3.550.1%1.99
Both teams to score
- Yes65.7%1.52
- No34.3%2.92
- Yes and over 2.557.6%1.74
- Falkirk win and yes12.4%8.05
- Draw and yes16.5%6.05
- Celtic win and yes36.8%2.72
Team goals
- Falkirk over 0.571.9%1.39
- Falkirk over 1.536.2%2.76
- Falkirk over 2.513.6%7.37
- Celtic over 0.590.9%1.10
- Celtic over 1.569.1%1.45
- Celtic over 2.542.9%2.33
- Falkirk clean sheet9.1%10.99
- Celtic clean sheet28.1%3.56
- Falkirk win to nil6.1%16.31
- Celtic win to nil25.1%3.98
Handicap
- Falkirk −1.57.5%13.28
- Falkirk −2.52.4%41.52
- Celtic +1.592.5%1.08
- Celtic +2.597.6%1.02
- Celtic −1.540.8%2.45
- Falkirk +1.559.2%1.69
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Scottish Premiership 2026-2027
No finished matches with a forecast in this competition yet.