Famalicao vs Alverca – 16 May 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 34 Sat, May 16 · 20:30 Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Vila Nova de Famalicão

Famalicao 5th · 53 pts · 33 played DDWDD

1–0Full time

Alverca 11th · 39 pts · 33 played WLWLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Famalicao were slight favourites.

Famalicao were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Famalicao. Famalicao had 5 days of rest, Alverca 6 and had to travel 282 km.

Away travel282 kmRest days5 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 2

Famalicao55%

Draw27%

Alverca18%

Expected goals 1.56 – 0.80

Famalicao55%

Draw24%

Alverca21%

Expected goals 1.78 – 1.01

Famalicao55%

Draw27%

Alverca18%

Expected goals 1.56 – 0.80

Famalicao48%

Draw29%

Alverca23%

Expected goals 1.39 – 0.89

Famalicao56%

Draw26%

Alverca19%

Expected goals 1.64 – 0.85

Over 2.5 42% Both score 44% Likeliest score 1–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vila Nova de Famalicão)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalClaudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira

Cards per match 5.2
Penalties per match 0.38
Matches 21

Team strength

Famalicao

Alverca

43 L90 StrengthIn forecast 27

38 Current StrengthIn forecast 30

24 AttackIn forecast 38

36 DefenceIn forecast 42

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Famalicao

Attack—

Defense risk—

Alverca

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Famalicao

Alverca

1.24 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.06

0.88 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.55

1.28 xGVia Att/Def 1.12

0.92 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.22

-0.04 Goals minus xGContext -0.06

73% Scored inContext 73%

48% Clean sheetsContext 18%

11.94 ShotsContext 9.33

4.42 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.71

35% On target shareContext 37%

8.26 Shots in the boxContext 5.97

65% Box shareContext 64%

10% ConversionContext 11%

1.60 OffsidesContext 2.11

10.09 Shots allowedContext 13.39

3.69 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.53

2.59 BlocksContext 4.06

3.21 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10

80% Save rateContext 67%

51% PossessionIn forecast 45%

393 PassesContext 355

323 Accurate passesContext 286

82% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.78

15.48 FoulsContext 12.27

16.24 Fouls sufferedContext 13.55

2.52 Yellow cardsContext 2.03

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 33 and 33 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.32 xGVia Att/Def 1.22

0.66 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.90

-0.12 Goals minus xGContext -0.02

80% Scored inContext 70%

50% Clean sheetsContext 10%

11.60 ShotsContext 11.00

4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90

41% On target shareContext 36%

8.33 Shots in the boxContext 6.60

66% Box shareContext 61%

10% ConversionContext 11%

1.80 OffsidesContext 2.33

8.30 Shots allowedContext 12.70

3.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

2.20 BlocksContext 3.67

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30

86% Save rateContext 70%

53% PossessionIn forecast 47%

415 PassesContext 367

345 Accurate passesContext 298

83% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.96 Team ratingContext 6.83

12.50 FoulsContext 10.80

16.40 Fouls sufferedContext 13.60

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Famalicao

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km603 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Alverca

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel282 km506 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Famalicao	Alverca
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 11 May	6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 10 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	282 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	603 km	506 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 4	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	83	84.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Famalicao Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25L. Carević(G)

5Rafa Soares 16J. de Haas 3L. Realpe 17Rodrigo Pinheiro

14M. De Amorim 6T. van de Looi

7Sorriso 20Gustavo Sá 23Gil Dias

12S. Elisor

Alverca Confirmed XI

3-4-3

31Matheus Mendes(G)

15Ikker dos Santos 4Kaiky Naves 14S. Baseya

82Diogo Spencer 18Lincoln 26Rhaldney 2Zoubdi

10Chiquinho 91Sandro Lima 20Figueiredo

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Famalicao Absences are shown before kick-off

Alverca Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Famalicao+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Alverca+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Famalicao · Home 1.75points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 8-4-4
Scored: 1.63
Conceded: 0.75

Alverca · Away 0.81points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 3-4-9
Scored: 1.06
Conceded: 1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Famalicao	Alverca
Estrela	D 0–0 AL 2–3 H	D 1–1 HD 2–2 A
Benfica	D 2–2 HL 0–1 A	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H
Estoril	W 1–0 AW 4–0 H	D 1–1 HL 1–4 A
SC Braga	D 2–2 AL 1–2 H	L 0–5 AL 0–3 H
Moreirense	D 1–1 HD 2–2 A	W 2–1 HL 1–2 A
FC Porto	D 2–2 AL 0–1 H	L 0–1 AL 0–3 H
Nacional	W 1–0 HW 1–0 A	L 0–1 AW 1–0 H
Guimaraes	W 2–1 AW 2–0 H	D 1–1 AW 2–0 H
Arouca	W 1–0 HD 1–1 A	W 2–1 HL 0–1 A
Rio Ave	D 0–0 AD 0–0 H	W 2–1 AD 1–1 H
Casa Pia	W 2–0 HD 1–1 A	W 3–1 HW 2–0 A
Sporting CP	L 0–1 AL 1–2 H	L 1–4 HL 0–2 A
AVS	W 3–1 HW 1–0 A	D 0–0 HW 3–1 A
GIL Vicente	L 0–5 AD 0–0 H	D 2–2 AL 0–4 H
Tondela	W 3–0 HW 1–0 A	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H
Santa Clara	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A
Points	53 of 96 · 1.66 per game	36 of 96 · 1.13 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Famalicao wins0 draws1 Alverca wins

Goals per game0.00 – 1.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets0% · 100%

4 Jan 2026Alverca1–0Famalicao

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Famalicao	Alverca	Forecast
Scored per game	1.24	1.06
Conceded per game	0.88	1.55
Match goals	2.12	2.61	2.36
Over 1.5	55%	79%
Over 2.5	39%	52%	42%
Over 3.5	24%	24%
Both teams scored	36%	58%	44%
Clean sheets	48%	18%
Failed to score	27%	27%
Games	33	33

	Famalicao	Alverca	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.20
Conceded per game	0.80	1.30
Match goals	2.00	2.50	2.36
Over 1.5	50%	70%
Over 2.5	40%	50%	42%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	70%	44%
Clean sheets	50%	10%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Famalicao	Alverca	League
Corners
Corners won	4.94	4.40
Corners conceded	4.94	4.72
Match total	9.88	9.12	9.37
Over 8.5	63% 20/32	56% 14/25
Over 9.5	50% 16/32	48% 12/25
Over 10.5	44% 14/32	32% 8/25
Cards
Cards	2.58	2.15
Opponent cards	2.36	2.39
Match total	4.94	4.54	5.06
Over 3.5	70% 23/33	55% 18/33
Over 4.5	55% 18/33	39% 13/33

	Famalicao	Alverca	League
Corners
Corners won	5.33	5.25
Corners conceded	4.11	4.88
Match total	9.44	10.13	9.37
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	75% 6/8
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.40
Opponent cards	2.80	2.10
Match total	5.30	3.50	5.06
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Claudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira Portugal · 21 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.95league 4.78

Red cards0.24league 0.24

Cards 5+48%league 57%

Fouls27.9league 26.6

Penalties0.38league 0.43

Home wins38%league 41%

Famalicao3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.3.7 · 3.7 Pens for · against0 · 0

L6 Dec 25H · SC Braga1–21
W1 Nov 25A · Nacional1–06
D28 Sep 25H · Rio Ave0–04

Alverca

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.