Famalicao
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Famalicao were slight favourites.
Famalicao were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Alverca. Famalicao had 23.2 days of rest, Alverca 23.1 and had to travel 282 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel282 kmRest days23.2 · 23.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Famalicao54%
Draw24%
Alverca22%
Famalicao55%
Draw23%
Alverca22%
Famalicao54%
Draw24%
Alverca22%
Famalicao46%
Draw25%
Alverca28%
Famalicao54%
Draw24%
Alverca23%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila Nova de Famalicão)
17°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 3 km/h
- Humidity 91%
RefereeSérgio José dos Santos Guelho
- Cards per match 0.0
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 1
Team strength
Famalicao
Alverca
42
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
38
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
24
AttackIn forecast
38
36
DefenceIn forecast
42
34
Form indexContext
43
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlverca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FamalicaoAlverca
1.29
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.29
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.57
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.88
+0.42
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
71%
Scored inContext
86%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
9.57
ShotsContext
11.71
3.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
36%
On target shareContext
34%
4.71
Shots in the boxContext
7.14
48%
Box shareContext
58%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
1.25
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.57
Shots allowedContext
12.00
3.14
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.57
2.71
BlocksContext
2.83
2.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
68%
Save rateContext
72%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
463
PassesContext
350
396
Accurate passesContext
278
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.72
11.71
FoulsContext
12.86
13.57
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.14
Yellow cardsContext
2.29
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
0.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
70%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.70
ShotsContext
10.60
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
33%
On target shareContext
33%
5.70
Shots in the boxContext
6.40
51%
Box shareContext
58%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.14
10.00
Shots allowedContext
11.70
2.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.56
BlocksContext
3.11
1.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
71%
Save rateContext
70%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
448
PassesContext
353
385
Accurate passesContext
284
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.72
11.70
FoulsContext
13.60
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Famalicao
LDDDW
Rest23.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 34 · 6 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -0.7 vs expected
Alverca
LDLWW
Rest23.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel282 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 43 · 7 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · +1.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Famalicao |
Alverca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 23.2Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 19 Sep | 23.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 19 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 282 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 12.9 | 11.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Famalicao
Confirmed XI
25L. Carević(G)
28Pedro Bondo
15Víctor Rofino
36M. Mattara
17Rodrigo Pinheiro
21Tamás Szücs
8Marcos Peña
7Sorriso
14M. De Amorim
23Gil Dias
70G. Koutsias
Alverca
Confirmed XI
31Matheus Mendes(G)
12Isaac James
21Sergi Gómez
14S. Baseya
55Francisco Chissumba
6D. Gui
35Rayan Lucas
20Diogo Spencer
22Figueiredo
19D. Camara
10Chiquinho
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Famalicao
Absences are shown before kick-off
Alverca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Famalicao+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Alverca+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Famalicao · Home
0.67points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-1
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Alverca · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Famalicao | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| Nacional | W 4–0 A | W 3–1 A |
| Sporting CP | D 1–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Estrela | D 2–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Santa Clara | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 5 of 12 · 1.25 per game | 5 of 12 · 1.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Famalicao wins0 draws1 Alverca wins
Goals per game0.50 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 16 May 2026Famalicao1–0Alverca
- 4 Jan 2026Alverca1–0Famalicao
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Famalicao | Alverca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.29 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.57 | |
| Match goals | 2.29 | 2.86 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 57% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 71% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Famalicao | Alverca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.40 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Famalicao | Alverca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.43 | 6.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 9.43 | 10.40 | 8.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.29 | 2.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.43 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 4.72 | 4.14 | 4.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Famalicao | Alverca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 5.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 10.00 | 8.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.20 | 4.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sérgio José dos Santos Guelho 1 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards0.00league 4.26
Red cards0.00league 0.21
Cards 5+0%league 46%
Fouls22.0league 25.0
Penalties0.00league 0.34
Home wins0%league 40%
FamalicaoNo previous matches with this referee.
AlvercaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Famalicao7 games · scored 9 · conceded 7
4
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Alverca7 games · scored 9 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
5
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Famalicao10 games · scored 12 · conceded 9
4
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
Alverca10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
6
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
