Famalicao
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Famalicao were slight favourites.
Famalicao were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Famalicao. Famalicao had 6 days of rest, Moreirense 6.1 and had to travel 15 km.
Away travel15 kmRest days6 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Famalicao59%
Draw25%
Moreirense15%
Famalicao53%
Draw25%
Moreirense22%
Famalicao59%
Draw25%
Moreirense15%
Famalicao53%
Draw28%
Moreirense20%
Famalicao60%
Draw25%
Moreirense15%
Over 2.5 42%
Both score 42%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila Nova de Famalicão)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalGustavo Correia
- Cards per match 6.1
- Penalties per match 0.42
- Matches 66
Team strength
Famalicao
Moreirense
41
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
38
Current StrengthIn forecast
25
24
AttackIn forecast
17
36
DefenceIn forecast
27
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMoreirense
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FamalicaoMoreirense
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.11
0.86
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
0.88
0.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
71%
Scored inContext
68%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
12.00
ShotsContext
8.43
4.35
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
34%
On target shareContext
38%
8.19
Shots in the boxContext
4.93
65%
Box shareContext
56%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
1.71
OffsidesContext
1.68
10.75
Shots allowedContext
12.71
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
2.67
BlocksContext
3.41
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.15
80%
Save rateContext
68%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
391
PassesContext
415
320
Accurate passesContext
346
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.72
15.96
FoulsContext
13.50
16.54
Fouls sufferedContext
14.96
2.43
Yellow cardsContext
2.46
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
0.49
0.86
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
70%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.00
ShotsContext
6.30
4.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.50
36%
On target shareContext
40%
7.30
Shots in the boxContext
3.44
61%
Box shareContext
52%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.60
10.60
Shots allowedContext
13.10
4.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.11
2.70
BlocksContext
3.80
3.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
78%
Save rateContext
67%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
410
PassesContext
398
341
Accurate passesContext
328
83%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.67
12.50
FoulsContext
13.10
17.60
Fouls sufferedContext
15.60
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Famalicao
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km60 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Moreirense
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel15 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Famalicao |
Moreirense |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 4 Apr | 6.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 4 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 15 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 60 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9 | 10 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Famalicao
Confirmed XI
25L. Carević(G)
5Rafa Soares
16J. de Haas
55I. Ba
17Rodrigo Pinheiro
14M. De Amorim
6T. van de Looi
20Gustavo Sá
7Sorriso
12S. Elisor
23Gil Dias
Moreirense
Confirmed XI
13André Ferreira(G)
27Kiko
26Maracás
66G. Dambi Batista
70Fabiano
2Diogo Travassos
8M. Stjepanović
23N. John
10Kiko Bondoso
21Rodri Alonso
11Alan
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Famalicao
Absences are shown before kick-off
Moreirense
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Famalicao+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Moreirense+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Famalicao · Home
1.86points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-2-4
- Scored
- 1.64
- Conceded
- 0.64
Moreirense · Away
1.07points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-7
- Scored
- 1.07
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Famalicao | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | L 0–3 AL 1–2 H |
| Nacional | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A | D 1–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Guimaraes | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Arouca | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Rio Ave | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Casa Pia | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Sporting CP | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | L 0–3 HL 0–3 A |
| AVS | W 3–1 HW 1–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| GIL Vicente | L 0–5 AD 0–0 H | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Tondela | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Santa Clara | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Alverca | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Estrela | L 2–3 H | D 0–0 A |
| Benfica | L 0–1 A | L 0–4 H |
| Estoril | W 4–0 H | D 3–3 A |
| SC Braga | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Points | 45 of 81 · 1.67 per game | 34 of 81 · 1.26 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Famalicao wins3 draws1 Moreirense wins
Goals per game0.80 – 0.60
Over 2.520%
Both scored20%
Clean sheets60% · 60%
- 29 Nov 2025Moreirense2–2Famalicao
- 23 Feb 2025Famalicao2–0Moreirense
- 21 Sep 2024Moreirense0–0Famalicao
- 28 Jan 2024Moreirense1–0Famalicao
- 21 Aug 2023Famalicao0–0Moreirense
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Famalicao | Moreirense | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 1.11 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.86 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.11 | 2.54 | 2.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 54% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 39% | 54% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 32% | 46% | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 32% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Famalicao | Moreirense | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.00 | 2.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Famalicao | Moreirense | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.86 | 3.96 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.93 | 4.58 | |
| Match total | 9.79 | 8.54 | 9.24 |
| Over 8.5 | 61% 17/28 | 50% 13/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 13/28 | 38% 10/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 12/28 | 8% 2/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 1.96 | |
| Match total | 4.79 | 4.53 | 5.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 19/28 | 61% 17/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 54% 15/28 | 46% 13/28 | |
| Famalicao | Moreirense | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 5.80 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 9.20 | 9.24 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.10 | 5.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Gustavo Correia Portugal · 66 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.71league 4.80
Red cards0.41league 0.25
Cards 5+71%league 57%
Fouls28.6league 26.9
Penalties0.42league 0.43
Home wins38%league 41%
Famalicao5 with this referee
Record1-2-2
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- L1 Mar 25A · Nacional1–24
- D13 Apr 24A · FC Porto2–23
- D30 Sep 23A · Boavista2–26
- L15 Jan 23A · FC Porto1–41
- W2 Oct 22H · Boavista4–01
Moreirense2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L2 May 25A · FC Porto1–33
- W5 Nov 23H · Guimaraes1–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Famalicao28 games · scored 35 · conceded 24
3
1
0-15
6
4
16-30
5
4
31-45
7
5
46-60
7
2
61-75
7
8
76-90
Moreirense28 games · scored 31 · conceded 40
6
3
0-15
3
5
16-30
2
6
31-45
7
9
46-60
8
7
61-75
5
10
76-90
Famalicao10 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
4
61-75
4
5
76-90
Moreirense10 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
