Famalicao vs Moreirense

Primeira Liga Gameweek 31 Sun, Apr 25 · 16:00 Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Vila Nova de Famalicão

Famalicao 13th · 7 pts · 8 played DDDWL

VS— Compare

Moreirense 12th · 8 pts · 8 played LLWDL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel15 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Famalicao—%

Draw—%

Moreirense—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Vila Nova de Famalicão)

Forecast from 10 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Trend Famalicao 63% Both teams scored Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Famalicao

Moreirense

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

38 Current StrengthIn forecast 25

24 AttackIn forecast 17

36 DefenceIn forecast 27

30 Form indexContext 23

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Famalicao

Attack—

Defense risk—

Moreirense

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Famalicao

Moreirense

1.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.38 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.88

0.76 xGVia Att/Def 0.51

1.44 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.46

+0.49 Goals minus xGContext +0.49

75% Scored inContext 63%

25% Clean sheetsContext 13%

10.00 ShotsContext 7.88

3.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.75

33% On target shareContext 35%

4.75 Shots in the boxContext 4.25

47% Box shareContext 55%

13% ConversionContext 13%

1.40 OffsidesContext —

11.88 Shots allowedContext 15.13

3.38 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

2.75 BlocksContext 3.88

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88

59% Save rateContext 58%

55% PossessionIn forecast 36%

472 PassesContext 324

405 Accurate passesContext 244

86% Pass accuracyContext 75%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.48

11.63 FoulsContext 13.63

15.25 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00

2.25 Yellow cardsContext 2.63

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

0.90 xGVia Att/Def 0.53

1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.38

+0.20 Goals minus xGContext +0.27

70% Scored inContext 50%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.50 ShotsContext 8.50

3.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.80

31% On target shareContext 33%

5.10 Shots in the boxContext 4.50

48% Box shareContext 54%

11% ConversionContext 9%

1.57 OffsidesContext 1.00

10.60 Shots allowedContext 14.20

2.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

2.67 BlocksContext 4.00

1.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

62% Save rateContext 56%

55% PossessionIn forecast 41%

465 PassesContext 364

399 Accurate passesContext 286

86% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.54

10.90 FoulsContext 12.70

14.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.90

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Famalicao DDDWL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km195 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 30 · 6 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected

L12 OctH · Alverca1–41.8 xPts
W19 SepA · Nacional4–01.7 xPts
D13 SepH · Sporting CP1–10.8 xPts
D5 SepA · Estrela2–21.4 xPts
D30 AugH · GIL Vicente0–01.6 xPts

Moreirense LLWDL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel15 km3,074 km in 14d

Schedule load10%Low

Form 23 · 4 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected

L9 OctH · GIL Vicente0–11.4 xPts
D20 SepA · Guimaraes1–10.9 xPts
W14 SepH · Maritimo3–11.7 xPts
L9 SepH · Benfica0–40.5 xPts
L4 SepA · FC Porto1–20.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Famalicao	Moreirense
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 10
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 18 Apr	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 18 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	15 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	195 km	3,074 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Famalicao Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Alverca (H) 1–4, 12 Oct

25L. Carević(G)

28Pedro Bondo 15Víctor Rofino 36M. Mattara 17Rodrigo Pinheiro

21Tamás Szücs 8Marcos Peña

7Sorriso 14M. De Amorim 23Gil Dias

70G. Koutsias

Moreirense Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs GIL Vicente (H) 0–1, 9 Oct

13André Ferreira(G)

27Kiko 26Maracás 66G. Dambi Batista 76Dinis Pinto

65Guilherme Liberato 23N. John

19Tiago Andrade 7Manuel Mendonça 10Kiko Bondoso

79L. Vonić

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Famalicao Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Moreirense Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Famalicao · Home 0.50points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 0-2-2
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 1.75

Moreirense · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Famalicao	Moreirense
GIL Vicente	D 0–0 H	L 0–1 H
Maritimo	L 1–2 H	W 3–1 H
Points	1 of 6 · 0.50 per game	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Famalicao wins4 draws1 Moreirense wins

Goals per game0.83 – 0.67 Over 2.517% Both scored33% Clean sheets50% · 50%

10 Apr 2026Famalicao1–1Moreirense
29 Nov 2025Moreirense2–2Famalicao
23 Feb 2025Famalicao2–0Moreirense
21 Sep 2024Moreirense0–0Famalicao
28 Jan 2024Moreirense1–0Famalicao
21 Aug 2023Famalicao0–0Moreirense

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Famalicao	Moreirense
Scored per game	1.25	1.00
Conceded per game	1.38	1.88
Match goals	2.63	2.88
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	50%	63%
Over 3.5	38%	50%
Both teams scored	63%	50%
Clean sheets	25%	13%
Failed to score	25%	38%
Games	8	8

	Famalicao	Moreirense
Scored per game	1.10	0.80
Conceded per game	1.10	1.70
Match goals	2.20	2.50
Over 1.5	60%	70%
Over 2.5	40%	50%
Over 3.5	30%	40%
Both teams scored	50%	40%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	30%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Famalicao	Moreirense	League
Corners
Corners won	5.75	2.50
Corners conceded	3.88	4.88
Match total	9.63	7.38	8.91
Over 8.5	75% 6/8	25% 2/8
Over 9.5	63% 5/8	25% 2/8
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	0% 0/8
Cards
Cards	2.38	2.75
Opponent cards	2.38	1.88
Match total	4.76	4.63	4.55
Over 3.5	75% 6/8	75% 6/8
Over 4.5	63% 5/8	50% 4/8

	Famalicao	Moreirense	League
Corners
Corners won	6.20	3.30
Corners conceded	3.90	4.30
Match total	10.10	7.60	8.91
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	0% 0/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.60
Opponent cards	2.40	1.80
Match total	4.50	4.40	4.55
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.