Famalicao
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sporting CP were slight favourites.
Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 39). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Famalicao. Famalicao had 8.2 days of rest, Sporting CP 4 and had to travel 303 km.
Away travel303 kmRest days8.2 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 2
Famalicao19%
Draw23%
Sporting CP58%
Famalicao19%
Draw22%
Sporting CP59%
Famalicao19%
Draw23%
Sporting CP58%
Famalicao15%
Draw20%
Sporting CP65%
Famalicao19%
Draw24%
Sporting CP57%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila Nova de Famalicão)
No weather data yet
Referee—Not recorded
Team strength
Famalicao
Sporting CP
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
83
38
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
24
AttackIn forecast
75
36
DefenceIn forecast
81
10
Form indexContext
90
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSporting CP
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FamalicaoSporting CP
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.80
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.89
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.81
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.91
60%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.00
ShotsContext
13.60
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.60
30%
On target shareContext
49%
4.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
48%
Box shareContext
62%
8%
ConversionContext
21%
1.33
OffsidesContext
1.75
11.20
Shots allowedContext
7.80
2.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.75
2.60
BlocksContext
1.60
1.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.75
57%
Save rateContext
64%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
510
PassesContext
568
440
Accurate passesContext
503
86%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.77
Team ratingContext
7.05
11.60
FoulsContext
12.60
14.80
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.10
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
2.03
0.88
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.85
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+1.07
70%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.10
ShotsContext
13.50
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.10
34%
On target shareContext
45%
5.67
Shots in the boxContext
9.10
52%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
23%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.25
9.30
Shots allowedContext
9.30
2.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.78
2.56
BlocksContext
1.80
1.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.11
67%
Save rateContext
76%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
449
PassesContext
547
384
Accurate passesContext
485
85%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.84
Team ratingContext
7.07
11.50
FoulsContext
11.90
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Famalicao
DLLDD
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km603 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 10 · 3 pts vs 9.0 for an average club · -5.0 vs expected
Sporting CP
WWWWW
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel303 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 90 · 15 pts vs 9.0 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Famalicao |
Sporting CP |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.2Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 5 Sep | 4UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 9 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 303 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 603 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Famalicao
Confirmed XI
25L. Carević(G)
28Pedro Bondo
4F. van Breemen
15Víctor Rofino
17Rodrigo Pinheiro
8Marcos Peña
14M. De Amorim
7Sorriso
21Tamás Szücs
23Gil Dias
70G. Koutsias
Sporting CP
Confirmed XI
1Rui Silva(G)
20M. Araújo
25G. Inácio
6Z. Debast
22Iván Fresneda
77I. Doumbia
5Sergi Altimira
31Luis Guilherme
58Flavio Goncalves
10Geny Catamo
97L. Suárez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Famalicao
Absences are shown before kick-off
Sporting CP
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Famalicao+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Sporting CP+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Famalicao · Home
0.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Sporting CP · Away
2.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Famalicao | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| Estrela | D 2–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
0 Famalicao wins0 draws8 Sporting CP wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.88
Over 2.563%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 15 Feb 2026Sporting CP1–0Famalicao
- 13 Sep 2025Famalicao1–2Sporting CP
- 15 Mar 2025Sporting CP3–1Famalicao
- 26 Oct 2024Famalicao0–3Sporting CP
- 16 Apr 2024Famalicao0–1Sporting CP
- 27 Aug 2023Sporting CP1–0Famalicao
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Famalicao | Sporting CP | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 2.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.80 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 80% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 80% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Famalicao | Sporting CP | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 3.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 4.10 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 90% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 80% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Famalicao | Sporting CP | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.20 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 6.75 | 8.93 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 4/5 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.20 | 4.25 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Famalicao | Sporting CP | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.90 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 3.78 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 7.56 | 8.93 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.20 | 4.25 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Famalicao5 games · scored 4 · conceded 6
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
Sporting CP5 games · scored 14 · conceded 5
3
0-15
3
16-30
3
31-45
5
46-60
3
61-75
2
76-90
Famalicao10 games · scored 10 · conceded 10
2
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 31 · conceded 10
5
2
0-15
5
16-30
7
31-45
6
46-60
5
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
