Fatih Karagümrük
Attack—
Defense risk—
Fatih Karagümrük
18th · 8 pts · 13 played
LDLWD
0–2Full time
Besiktas
7th · 21 pts · 13 played
WDLWD
Our take
Besiktas were slight favourites.
Besiktas were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 14). Fatih Karagümrük had 8.1 days of rest, Besiktas 7.1 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days8.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Fatih Karagümrük26%
Draw26%
Besiktas49%
Fatih Karagümrük27%
Draw26%
Besiktas47%
Fatih Karagümrük26%
Draw26%
Besiktas48%
Fatih Karagümrük20%
Draw24%
Besiktas56%
Fatih Karagümrük26%
Draw26%
Besiktas48%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeHalil Umut Meler
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 22
Team strength
Fatih KaragümrükBesiktas
14
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
13
AttackIn forecast
60
25
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBesiktas
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Fatih KaragümrükBesiktas
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.69
1.85
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.31
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.81
1.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
54%
Scored inContext
85%
8%
Clean sheetsContext
15%
10.85
ShotsContext
13.31
3.17
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.85
27%
On target shareContext
36%
5.54
Shots in the boxContext
9.92
52%
Box shareContext
74%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
2.73
OffsidesContext
2.55
14.23
Shots allowedContext
11.38
5.85
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.62
3.42
BlocksContext
2.92
4.08
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.82
65%
Save rateContext
69%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
358
PassesContext
411
277
Accurate passesContext
339
77%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.62
Team ratingContext
6.84
14.31
FoulsContext
13.15
14.54
Fouls sufferedContext
11.62
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.15
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.15
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.70
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.00
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
60%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.00
ShotsContext
12.10
3.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
26%
On target shareContext
38%
6.30
Shots in the boxContext
9.10
59%
Box shareContext
74%
10%
ConversionContext
15%
3.13
OffsidesContext
2.50
13.40
Shots allowedContext
11.80
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
3.10
BlocksContext
3.00
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
67%
Save rateContext
71%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
362
PassesContext
396
277
Accurate passesContext
320
76%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.64
Team ratingContext
6.87
14.80
FoulsContext
12.70
14.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fatih Karagümrük
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Besiktas
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fatih Karagümrük |
Besiktas |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 22 Nov | 7.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 23 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fatih Karagümrük
Confirmed XI
13I. Grbić(G)
47Ricardo Esgaio
29J. Balkovec
3E. Roco
6A. Çankaya
5M. Kranevitter
14Marius Tresor Doh
70Serginho
21T. Çukur
37João Camacho
19D. Fofana
Besiktas
Confirmed XI
30E. Destanoğlu(G)
39D. Jurásek
53E. Topçu
3G. de Abreu
25G. Sazdagi
10O. Kökçü
4O. Ndidi
26Jota Silva
18V. Černý
11C. Ünder
19E. Touré
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fatih Karagümrük
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Besiktas
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fatih Karagümrük-0.7 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Besiktas+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Fatih Karagümrük · Home
0.57points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-5
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.86
Besiktas · Away
1.57points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-2
- Scored
- 1.57
- Conceded
- 1.14
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Fatih Karagümrük | Besiktas |
|---|---|---|
| Eyüpspor | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Konyaspor | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Kayserispor | D 2–2 H | W 4–0 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 1–2 A | L 2–3 H |
| Samsunspor | L 2–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Kasimpasa | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Antalyaspor | W 2–1 A | W 3–1 A |
| Goztepe | L 0–2 H | L 0–3 A |
| Galatasaray | L 0–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 8 of 30 · 0.80 per game | 18 of 30 · 1.80 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Fatih Karagümrük wins0 draws2 Besiktas wins
Goals per game0.00 – 2.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 13 Jan 2024Besiktas3–0Fatih Karagümrük
- 14 Aug 2023Fatih Karagümrük0–1Besiktas
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fatih Karagümrük | Besiktas | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.69 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.85 | 1.31 | |
| Match goals | 2.85 | 3.00 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 62% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 69% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 8% | 15% | |
| Failed to score | 46% | 15% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Fatih Karagümrük | Besiktas | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fatih Karagümrük | Besiktas | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.85 | 5.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.38 | 5.17 | |
| Match total | 9.23 | 10.34 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 54% 7/13 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 54% 7/13 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 23% 3/13 | 33% 4/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.15 | 2.31 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.15 | 2.54 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.85 | 4.74 |
| Over 3.5 | 77% 10/13 | 85% 11/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 5/13 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Fatih Karagümrük | Besiktas | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 5.78 | |
| Match total | 8.70 | 9.89 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 4.70 | 4.74 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Halil Umut Meler Türkiye · 22 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.59league 4.46
Red cards0.23league 0.27
Cards 5+55%league 47%
Fouls24.9league 26.2
Penalties0.27league 0.28
Home wins27%league 37%
Fatih KaragümrükNo previous matches with this referee.
Besiktas2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W17 Aug 25H · Eyüpspor2–12
- L25 May 25H · Rizespor1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fatih Karagümrük13 games · scored 13 · conceded 24
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
5
31-45
1
3
46-60
8
61-75
6
4
76-90
Besiktas13 games · scored 22 · conceded 17
7
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
5
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük10 games · scored 11 · conceded 18
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
6
61-75
5
3
76-90
Besiktas10 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
7
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
