Fatih Karagümrük
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Fatih Karagümrük
18th · 8 pts · 13 played
LDLWD
0–2Full time
Besiktas
7th · 21 pts · 13 played
WDLWD
Fatih Karagümrük25.5%fair odds 3.92
Draw25.9%fair odds 3.87
Besiktas48.6%fair odds 2.06
Expected goals1.12 – 1.63total 2.74
Likeliest score1–112.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Besiktas
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Fatih Karagümrük ↓ · Besiktas → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.8 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 12.3 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Fatih Karagümrük goals, columns Besiktas goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.3%8.12
- 0–19.8%10.16
- 1–29.5%10.52
- 0–28.5%11.75
- 0–07.1%14.18
- 1–06.6%15.23
- 2–16.5%15.31
- 2–25.3%18.83
- 1–35.2%19.40
- 0–34.6%21.67
Winning margin
3.1%
Fatih Karagümrük by 3+
fair 32.71
7.1%
Fatih Karagümrük by 2
fair 14.14
15.4%
Fatih Karagümrük by 1
fair 6.49
25.9%
Draw
fair 3.87
22.7%
Besiktas by 1
fair 4.40
15.0%
Besiktas by 2
fair 6.67
10.9%
Besiktas by 3+
fair 9.17
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Fatih Karagümrük goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
8%3
3%4+
Besiktas goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fatih Karagümrük win | 25.5% | 25.9% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 25.9% | 26.1% | -0.3 pp |
| Besiktas win | 48.6% | 47.9% | +0.7 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.7% | 50.9% | +0.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.7% | 54.2% | +0.5 pp |
| Expected goals Fatih Karagümrük | 1.12 | 1.11 | +0.00 |
| Expected goals Besiktas | 1.63 | 1.60 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Fatih Karagümrük win25.5%3.92
- Draw25.9%3.87
- Besiktas win48.6%2.06
- Double chance Fatih Karagümrük or draw51.4%1.95
- Double chance Fatih Karagümrük or Besiktas74.1%1.35
- Double chance Besiktas or draw74.5%1.34
- Draw no bet Fatih Karagümrük34.4%2.90
- Draw no bet Besiktas65.6%1.53
Goals
- Over 0.592.9%1.08
- Over 1.576.5%1.31
- Over 2.551.7%1.93
- Over 3.529.6%3.38
- Over 4.514.4%6.96
- Under 1.523.5%4.26
- Under 2.548.3%2.07
- Under 3.570.4%1.42
Both teams to score
- Yes54.7%1.83
- No45.3%2.21
- Yes and over 2.542.4%2.36
- Fatih Karagümrük win and yes12.9%7.74
- Draw and yes18.8%5.31
- Besiktas win and yes22.9%4.36
Team goals
- Fatih Karagümrük over 0.567.3%1.49
- Fatih Karagümrük over 1.530.7%3.25
- Fatih Karagümrük over 2.510.3%9.70
- Besiktas over 0.580.3%1.24
- Besiktas over 1.548.4%2.07
- Besiktas over 2.522.4%4.47
- Fatih Karagümrük clean sheet19.7%5.09
- Besiktas clean sheet32.7%3.06
- Fatih Karagümrük win to nil12.6%7.93
- Besiktas win to nil25.7%3.90
Handicap
- Fatih Karagümrük −1.510.1%9.87
- Fatih Karagümrük −2.53.1%32.71
- Besiktas +1.589.9%1.11
- Besiktas +2.596.9%1.03
- Besiktas −1.525.9%3.86
- Fatih Karagümrük +1.574.1%1.35
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored123
Favourite won48.0%
Avg chance given to result40.3%
1X2 Brier0.592
Over 2.5 called right53.7%
BTTS called right48.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 19 | 38.1% | 31.6% |
| 40–50% | 55 | 44.2% | 34.5% |
| 50–60% | 27 | 55.3% | 63.0% |
| 60–70% | 13 | 65.5% | 69.2% |
| 70–80% | 7 | 76.1% | 85.7% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 82.6% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 98 of 123 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6000 | 0.5839 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.8% | 41.2% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 52.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 98 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Antalyaspor 1–2 Goztepe28·27·45
- ✗Kasimpasa 1–3 Istanbul Basaksehir41·27·32
- ✓Trabzonspor 3–1 Konyaspor62·22·16
- ✗Gazişehir Gaziantep 1–2 Eyüpspor50·25·25
- ✗Rizespor 0–1 Kayserispor50·26·25
- ✓Kocaelispor 1–0 Genclerbirligi59·23·18
- ✗Konyaspor 0–0 Antalyaspor51·25·24
- ✓Istanbul Basaksehir 3–4 Trabzonspor36·26·37
- ✓Rizespor 2–5 Fenerbahce18·23·60
- ✗Alanyaspor 1–2 Kasimpasa48·26·26
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 123 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.