Fatih Karagümrük
Attack—
Defense risk—
Fatih Karagümrük
18th · 9 pts · 18 played
LLDLL
1–3Full time
Galatasaray
1st · 43 pts · 18 played
DWWWD
Our take
Galatasaray were clear favourites.
Galatasaray were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 12). Galatasaray usually keep the ball (59% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Fatih Karagümrük had 7.1 days of rest, Galatasaray 7 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days7.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Fatih Karagümrük10%
Draw17%
Galatasaray73%
Fatih Karagümrük10%
Draw18%
Galatasaray72%
Fatih Karagümrük10%
Draw17%
Galatasaray73%
Fatih Karagümrük7%
Draw14%
Galatasaray79%
Fatih Karagümrük10%
Draw18%
Galatasaray72%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAtilla Karaoglan
- Cards per match 6.4
- Penalties per match 0.42
- Matches 19
Team strength
Fatih KaragümrükGalatasaray
12
L90 StrengthIn forecast
71
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
13
AttackIn forecast
57
25
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGalatasaray
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Fatih KaragümrükGalatasaray
0.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.22
1.89
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.72
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.99
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
50%
Scored inContext
89%
6%
Clean sheetsContext
39%
10.06
ShotsContext
16.56
3.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.72
28%
On target shareContext
35%
5.17
Shots in the boxContext
11.56
52%
Box shareContext
67%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
2.56
OffsidesContext
1.93
14.78
Shots allowedContext
9.33
6.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.41
3.41
BlocksContext
2.60
4.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
66%
Save rateContext
79%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
358
PassesContext
493
282
Accurate passesContext
430
79%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.64
Team ratingContext
7.08
13.72
FoulsContext
12.06
14.39
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.83
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
60%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.50
ShotsContext
14.40
3.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
27%
On target shareContext
28%
4.80
Shots in the boxContext
10.50
52%
Box shareContext
66%
8%
ConversionContext
11%
2.80
OffsidesContext
1.33
15.10
Shots allowedContext
11.70
6.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
3.40
BlocksContext
3.00
4.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
68%
Save rateContext
66%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
346
PassesContext
499
271
Accurate passesContext
430
78%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.97
14.10
FoulsContext
12.10
14.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fatih Karagümrük
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Galatasaray
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fatih Karagümrük |
Galatasaray |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 17 Jan | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 17 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fatih Karagümrük
Confirmed XI
13I. Grbić(G)
33Ç. Kurukalıp
29J. Balkovec
4D. Biraschi
47Ricardo Esgaio
72Baris Kalayci
8B. Özcan
14Marius Tresor Doh
88T. Ahmed
70Serginho
23S. Larsson
Galatasaray
Confirmed XI
1U. Çakır(G)
4I. Jakobs
42A. Bardakcı
6D. Sánchez
7R. Sallai
34L. Torreira
20İ. Gündoğan
53B. Yılmaz
8Gabriel Sara
11Y. Akgün
45V. Osimhen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fatih Karagümrük
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Galatasaray
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fatih Karagümrük+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Galatasaray+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Fatih Karagümrük · Home
0.56points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-6
- Scored
- 0.89
- Conceded
- 1.78
Galatasaray · Away
2.38points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-1
- Scored
- 2.13
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Fatih Karagümrük | Galatasaray |
|---|---|---|
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Alanyaspor | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Kocaelispor | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Genclerbirligi | L 0–3 A | W 3–2 H |
| Besiktas | L 0–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Eyüpspor | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Konyaspor | W 2–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Rizespor | L 0–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Kayserispor | D 2–2 H | W 4–0 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 0–2 H | D 1–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 3–4 H | D 0–0 H |
| Samsunspor | L 2–3 A | W 3–2 H |
| Kasimpasa | L 0–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| Antalyaspor | W 2–1 A | W 4–1 A |
| Goztepe | L 0–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| Points | 9 of 51 · 0.53 per game | 40 of 51 · 2.35 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Fatih Karagümrük wins0 draws3 Galatasaray wins
Goals per game0.67 – 2.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets0% · 67%
- 15 Aug 2025Galatasaray3–0Fatih Karagümrük
- 12 May 2024Fatih Karagümrük2–3Galatasaray
- 20 Dec 2023Galatasaray1–0Fatih Karagümrük
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fatih Karagümrük | Galatasaray | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.83 | 2.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.89 | 0.72 | |
| Match goals | 2.72 | 2.94 | 3.21 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 61% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 39% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 56% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 6% | 39% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 11% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| Fatih Karagümrük | Galatasaray | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 3.00 | 3.21 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fatih Karagümrük | Galatasaray | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.44 | 5.18 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 3.47 | |
| Match total | 8.94 | 8.65 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 9/18 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 9/18 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 28% 5/18 | 29% 5/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.11 | 1.94 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.22 | |
| Match total | 4.11 | 4.16 | 4.59 |
| Over 3.5 | 72% 13/18 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 28% 5/18 | 39% 7/18 | |
| Fatih Karagümrük | Galatasaray | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.20 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 8.70 | 8.70 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.80 | 4.59 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Atilla Karaoglan Türkiye · 19 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.11league 4.35
Red cards0.32league 0.24
Cards 5+74%league 44%
Fouls25.0league 25.7
Penalties0.42league 0.25
Home wins37%league 36%
Fatih KaragümrükNo previous matches with this referee.
Galatasaray2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W18 Oct 25A · Istanbul Basaksehir2–16
- W10 May 25A · Trabzonspor2–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fatih Karagümrük18 games · scored 15 · conceded 34
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
6
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
11
61-75
6
6
76-90
Galatasaray18 games · scored 40 · conceded 13
6
2
0-15
7
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
5
2
46-60
8
3
61-75
10
4
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük10 games · scored 8 · conceded 16
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
6
61-75
2
3
76-90
Galatasaray10 games · scored 16 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
