Fatih Karagümrük
Attack—
Defense risk—
Fatih Karagümrük
18th · 3 pts · 7 played
WLLLL
0–2Full time
Gazişehir Gaziantep
8th · 11 pts · 7 played
WWWDD
Our take
It was too close to call.
Gazişehir Gaziantep were the stronger side on L90 Strength (22 vs 15). Fatih Karagümrük had 7.9 days of rest, Gazişehir Gaziantep 8 and had to travel 850 km.
Away travel850 kmRest days7.9 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Fatih Karagümrük37%
Draw27%
Gazişehir Gaziantep36%
Fatih Karagümrük37%
Draw27%
Gazişehir Gaziantep36%
Fatih Karagümrük37%
Draw27%
Gazişehir Gaziantep36%
Fatih Karagümrük30%
Draw27%
Gazişehir Gaziantep43%
Fatih Karagümrük37%
Draw27%
Gazişehir Gaziantep36%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOguzhan Cakir
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 6
Team strength
Fatih KaragümrükGazişehir Gaziantep
15
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
13
AttackIn forecast
15
25
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGazişehir Gaziantep
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Fatih KaragümrükGazişehir Gaziantep
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
2.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.71
0.72
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
43%
Scored inContext
71%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
10.43
ShotsContext
14.57
2.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.71
27%
On target shareContext
26%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.71
49%
Box shareContext
56%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.40
14.00
Shots allowedContext
13.00
5.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.29
3.50
BlocksContext
3.00
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.57
63%
Save rateContext
60%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
384
PassesContext
389
303
Accurate passesContext
322
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.49
Team ratingContext
6.82
12.00
FoulsContext
13.43
14.71
Fouls sufferedContext
16.71
1.71
Yellow cardsContext
3.43
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
2.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.72
xGVia Att/Def
1.47
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
+0.58
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
60%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.80
ShotsContext
13.90
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
32%
On target shareContext
30%
5.70
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
53%
Box shareContext
59%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.88
14.70
Shots allowedContext
13.20
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.67
BlocksContext
3.20
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
60%
Save rateContext
62%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
370
PassesContext
372
290
Accurate passesContext
306
78%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.59
Team ratingContext
6.83
11.50
FoulsContext
13.20
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
15.70
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fatih Karagümrük
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,238 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel850 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fatih Karagümrük |
Gazişehir Gaziantep |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 27 Sep | 8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 27 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 850 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,238 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.1 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fatih Karagümrük
Confirmed XI
13I. Grbić(G)
29J. Balkovec
27N. Ugrekhelidze
32Muhammed Kadioglu
6A. Çankaya
14Marius Tresor Doh
11D. Johnson
23S. Larsson
8B. Özcan
21T. Çukur
91A. Gray
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Confirmed XI
71M. Bozan(G)
77K. Rodrigues
14L. Abena
4A. Kızıldağ
2Luis Pérez
3D. Camara
6M. Kabasakal
11C. Lungoyi
44A. Maxim
10K. Kozłowski
9M. Bayo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fatih Karagümrük
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fatih Karagümrük-0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Gazişehir Gaziantep+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Fatih Karagümrük · Home
0.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-4
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 2.25
Gazişehir Gaziantep · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Fatih Karagümrük | Gazişehir Gaziantep |
|---|---|---|
| Trabzonspor | L 3–4 H | D 1–1 A |
| Samsunspor | L 2–3 A | D 2–2 H |
| Kasimpasa | L 0–1 H | W 3–2 A |
| Galatasaray | L 0–3 A | L 0–3 H |
| Points | 0 of 12 · 0.00 per game | 5 of 12 · 1.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Fatih Karagümrük wins0 draws2 Gazişehir Gaziantep wins
Goals per game0.50 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 18 May 2024Gazişehir Gaziantep3–1Fatih Karagümrük
- 23 Dec 2023Fatih Karagümrük0–3Gazişehir Gaziantep
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fatih Karagümrük | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.29 | 1.71 | |
| Match goals | 3.29 | 3.14 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 71% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 57% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Fatih Karagümrük | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.29 | 1.71 | |
| Match goals | 3.29 | 3.14 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 71% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 57% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fatih Karagümrük | Gazişehir Gaziantep | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.57 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 4.14 | |
| Match total | 9.57 | 10.14 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 5/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.86 | 3.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.57 | 3.86 | |
| Match total | 3.43 | 7.43 | 4.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 100% 7/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 14% 1/7 | 100% 7/7 | |
| Fatih Karagümrük | Gazişehir Gaziantep | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.50 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 10.90 | 10.20 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 6.60 | 4.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Oguzhan Cakir Türkiye · 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.83league 4.64
Red cards0.33league 0.30
Cards 5+17%league 52%
Fouls21.8league 26.7
Penalties0.33league 0.27
Home wins67%league 37%
Fatih KaragümrükNo previous matches with this referee.
Gazişehir GaziantepNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fatih Karagümrük7 games · scored 7 · conceded 16
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
46-60
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep7 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
1
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük10 games · scored 13 · conceded 23
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
5
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
5
61-75
6
6
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep10 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
1
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
