Süper Lig Gameweek 8 Sun, Oct 5 · 15:00 Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, İstanbul
Fatih Karagümrük 18th · 3 pts · 7 played
0–2Full time
Gazişehir Gaziantep 8th · 11 pts · 7 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Fatih Karagümrük37.3%fair odds 2.68
Draw26.9%fair odds 3.71
Gazişehir Gaziantep35.8%fair odds 2.79
Expected goals1.38 – 1.35total 2.73
Likeliest score1–112.8%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Fatih Karagümrük

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Gazişehir Gaziantep

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Fatih Karagümrük ↓ · Gazişehir Gaziantep →0123456+
07.28.15.92.70.90.20.1
18.412.88.23.71.20.30.1
26.28.45.72.50.90.20.1
32.93.92.61.20.40.10.0
41.01.30.90.40.10.00.0
50.30.40.20.10.00.00.0
6+0.10.10.10.00.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Fatih Karagümrük goals, columns Gazişehir Gaziantep goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–112.8%7.82
  • 2–18.4%11.92
  • 1–08.4%11.97
  • 1–28.2%12.20
  • 0–18.1%12.28
  • 0–07.2%13.97
  • 2–06.2%16.08
  • 0–25.9%16.86
  • 2–25.7%17.66
  • 3–13.9%25.87

Winning margin

6.4% Fatih Karagümrük by 3+ fair 15.70
11.1% Fatih Karagümrük by 2 fair 9.01
19.8% Fatih Karagümrük by 1 fair 5.05
26.9% Draw fair 3.71
19.3% Gazişehir Gaziantep by 1 fair 5.17
10.6% Gazişehir Gaziantep by 2 fair 9.44
5.9% Gazişehir Gaziantep by 3+ fair 17.01

Goal distribution

Total goals

7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+

Fatih Karagümrük goals

25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+

Gazişehir Gaziantep goals

26%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
Fatih Karagümrük win 37.3% 37.1% +0.2 pp
Draw 26.9% 27.2% -0.3 pp
Gazişehir Gaziantep win 35.8% 35.7% +0.1 pp
Over 2.5 51.4% 50.1% +1.3 pp
Both teams score 56.1% 55.1% +1.0 pp
Expected goals Fatih Karagümrük 1.38 1.35 +0.03
Expected goals Gazişehir Gaziantep 1.35 1.32 +0.03

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • Fatih Karagümrük win37.3%2.68
  • Draw26.9%3.71
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep win35.8%2.79
  • Double chance Fatih Karagümrük or draw64.2%1.56
  • Double chance Fatih Karagümrük or Gazişehir Gaziantep73.1%1.37
  • Double chance Gazişehir Gaziantep or draw62.7%1.59
  • Draw no bet Fatih Karagümrük51.0%1.96
  • Draw no bet Gazişehir Gaziantep49.0%2.04

Goals

  • Over 0.592.8%1.08
  • Over 1.576.3%1.31
  • Over 2.551.4%1.95
  • Over 3.529.3%3.41
  • Over 4.514.2%7.05
  • Under 1.523.7%4.23
  • Under 2.548.6%2.06
  • Under 3.570.7%1.41

Both teams to score

  • Yes56.1%1.78
  • No43.9%2.28
  • Yes and over 2.543.3%2.31
  • Fatih Karagümrük win and yes18.5%5.41
  • Draw and yes19.8%5.06
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep win and yes17.8%5.60

Team goals

  • Fatih Karagümrük over 0.574.9%1.34
  • Fatih Karagümrük over 1.540.2%2.49
  • Fatih Karagümrük over 2.516.2%6.17
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep over 0.574.1%1.35
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep over 1.539.1%2.56
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep over 2.515.4%6.47
  • Fatih Karagümrük clean sheet25.9%3.86
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep clean sheet25.1%3.98
  • Fatih Karagümrük win to nil18.8%5.33
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep win to nil18.0%5.57

Handicap

  • Fatih Karagümrük −1.517.5%5.72
  • Fatih Karagümrük −2.56.4%15.70
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep +1.582.5%1.21
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep +2.593.6%1.07
  • Gazişehir Gaziantep −1.516.5%6.07
  • Fatih Karagümrük +1.583.5%1.20

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored67 Favourite won43.3% Avg chance given to result40.5% 1X2 Brier0.590 Over 2.5 called right56.7% BTTS called right52.2%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%938.2%11.1%
40–50%3144.3%25.8%
50–60%1455.2%64.3%
60–70%865.8%87.5%
70–80%475.6%75.0%
80%+180.2%100.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 43 of 67 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.60930.5687
Avg chance given to result39.2%42.1%
Favourite won44.2%51.2%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 43 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 67 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.