Fatih Karagümrük
Attack—
Defense risk—
Fatih Karagümrük
18th · 4 pts · 11 played
LLLDL
2–0Full time
Konyaspor
9th · 14 pts · 11 played
DLLWL
Our take
It was too close to call.
Konyaspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (19 vs 13). Fatih Karagümrük had 5.8 days of rest, Konyaspor 7 and had to travel 463 km.
Away travel463 kmRest days5.8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2
Fatih Karagümrük37%
Draw27%
Konyaspor36%
Fatih Karagümrük37%
Draw27%
Konyaspor36%
Fatih Karagümrük37%
Draw27%
Konyaspor36%
Fatih Karagümrük30%
Draw26%
Konyaspor43%
Fatih Karagümrük38%
Draw27%
Konyaspor35%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAdnan Deniz Kayatepe
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.57
- Matches 7
Team strength
Fatih KaragümrükKonyaspor
13
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
13
AttackIn forecast
13
25
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKonyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Fatih KaragümrükKonyaspor
0.91
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.64
2.09
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.64
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
1.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.43
45%
Scored inContext
91%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
9%
11.27
ShotsContext
14.00
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.82
26%
On target shareContext
34%
5.64
Shots in the boxContext
8.45
51%
Box shareContext
61%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.22
14.73
Shots allowedContext
12.73
6.27
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.82
3.50
BlocksContext
3.20
4.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
65%
Save rateContext
64%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
359
PassesContext
381
278
Accurate passesContext
313
78%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.55
Team ratingContext
6.87
13.82
FoulsContext
11.82
14.82
Fouls sufferedContext
13.09
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.09
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
1.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
50%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.90
ShotsContext
13.80
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
25%
On target shareContext
35%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
52%
Box shareContext
61%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
2.63
OffsidesContext
2.38
13.50
Shots allowedContext
12.40
6.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
3.22
BlocksContext
3.22
4.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
65%
Save rateContext
64%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
373
PassesContext
394
290
Accurate passesContext
326
78%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.57
Team ratingContext
6.84
14.00
FoulsContext
11.80
15.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fatih Karagümrük
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,940 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Konyaspor
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel463 km460 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fatih Karagümrük |
Konyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 3 Nov | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 2 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 463 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,940 km | 460 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.1 | 15.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fatih Karagümrük
Confirmed XI
13I. Grbić(G)
33Ç. Kurukalıp
29J. Balkovec
3E. Roco
6A. Çankaya
5M. Kranevitter
14Marius Tresor Doh
23S. Larsson
8B. Özcan
70Serginho
19D. Fofana
Konyaspor
Confirmed XI
13B. Güngördü(G)
12G. Sityá
15J. Ćalušić
37M. Eriş
23Y. Andzouana
77M. İbrahimoğlu
18A. Ndao
8Pedrinho
40J. Muleka
10E. Bardhi
22M. Nayir
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fatih Karagümrük
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Konyaspor
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fatih Karagümrük+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Konyaspor-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Fatih Karagümrük · Home
0.17points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-5
- Scored
- 0.83
- Conceded
- 2.17
Konyaspor · Away
1.60points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-1
- Scored
- 1.80
- Conceded
- 1.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Fatih Karagümrük | Konyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 0–2 H | W 3–0 H |
| Samsunspor | L 2–3 A | L 1–3 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Kasimpasa | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Goztepe | L 0–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Galatasaray | L 0–3 A | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 0 of 18 · 0.00 per game | 8 of 18 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Fatih Karagümrük wins2 draws0 Konyaspor wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 15 Mar 2024Fatih Karagümrük1–1Konyaspor
- 5 Nov 2023Konyaspor1–1Fatih Karagümrük
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fatih Karagümrük | Konyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.91 | 1.64 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.09 | 1.64 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.27 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 73% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 82% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 9% | |
| Failed to score | 55% | 9% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Fatih Karagümrük | Konyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fatih Karagümrük | Konyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.73 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.55 | 5.27 | |
| Match total | 9.28 | 11.27 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 55% 6/11 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 55% 6/11 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 3/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.18 | 2.18 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.27 | 2.45 | |
| Match total | 4.45 | 4.63 | 4.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 82% 9/11 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 5/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Fatih Karagümrük | Konyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 5.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 10.90 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.80 | 4.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Adnan Deniz Kayatepe Türkiye · 7 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.71league 4.61
Red cards0.14league 0.27
Cards 5+57%league 51%
Fouls25.9league 26.1
Penalties0.57league 0.27
Home wins29%league 37%
Fatih KaragümrükNo previous matches with this referee.
KonyasporNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fatih Karagümrük11 games · scored 10 · conceded 23
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
1
3
46-60
7
61-75
5
4
76-90
Konyaspor11 games · scored 18 · conceded 18
1
2
0-15
4
4
16-30
3
2
31-45
5
4
46-60
5
61-75
5
1
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük10 games · scored 10 · conceded 20
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
1
3
46-60
6
61-75
5
3
76-90
Konyaspor10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
2
0-15
3
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
5
3
46-60
5
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
