Fatih Karagümrük
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Fatih Karagümrük
18th · 4 pts · 11 played
LLLDL
2–0Full time
Konyaspor
9th · 14 pts · 11 played
DLLWL
Fatih Karagümrük37.4%fair odds 2.68
Draw26.8%fair odds 3.73
Konyaspor35.8%fair odds 2.79
Expected goals1.39 – 1.36total 2.76
Likeliest score1–112.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Konyaspor
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Fatih Karagümrük ↓ · Konyaspor → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Fatih Karagümrük goals, columns Konyaspor goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.7%7.87
- 2–18.4%11.88
- 1–08.2%12.16
- 1–28.2%12.18
- 0–18.0%12.49
- 0–07.0%14.30
- 2–06.2%16.18
- 0–25.9%16.99
- 2–25.7%17.46
- 3–13.9%25.56
Winning margin
6.5%
Fatih Karagümrük by 3+
fair 15.48
11.1%
Fatih Karagümrük by 2
fair 8.97
19.8%
Fatih Karagümrük by 1
fair 5.06
26.8%
Draw
fair 3.73
19.3%
Konyaspor by 1
fair 5.19
10.6%
Konyaspor by 2
fair 9.42
5.9%
Konyaspor by 3+
fair 16.81
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
Fatih Karagümrük goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
Konyaspor goals
26%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fatih Karagümrük win | 37.4% | 37.6% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 26.8% | 26.9% | -0.1 pp |
| Konyaspor win | 35.8% | 35.5% | +0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.0% | 51.5% | +0.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.6% | 56.2% | +0.4 pp |
| Expected goals Fatih Karagümrük | 1.39 | 1.39 | +0.00 |
| Expected goals Konyaspor | 1.36 | 1.34 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Fatih Karagümrük win37.4%2.68
- Draw26.8%3.73
- Konyaspor win35.8%2.79
- Double chance Fatih Karagümrük or draw64.2%1.56
- Double chance Fatih Karagümrük or Konyaspor73.2%1.37
- Double chance Konyaspor or draw62.6%1.60
- Draw no bet Fatih Karagümrük51.1%1.96
- Draw no bet Konyaspor48.9%2.04
Goals
- Over 0.593.0%1.08
- Over 1.576.8%1.30
- Over 2.552.0%1.92
- Over 3.529.8%3.35
- Over 4.514.6%6.87
- Under 1.523.2%4.31
- Under 2.548.0%2.08
- Under 3.570.2%1.43
Both teams to score
- Yes56.6%1.77
- No43.4%2.30
- Yes and over 2.543.9%2.28
- Fatih Karagümrük win and yes18.7%5.34
- Draw and yes19.8%5.05
- Konyaspor win and yes18.0%5.54
Team goals
- Fatih Karagümrük over 0.575.2%1.33
- Fatih Karagümrük over 1.540.6%2.46
- Fatih Karagümrük over 2.516.5%6.05
- Konyaspor over 0.574.4%1.34
- Konyaspor over 1.539.5%2.53
- Konyaspor over 2.515.7%6.36
- Fatih Karagümrük clean sheet25.6%3.90
- Konyaspor clean sheet24.8%4.03
- Fatih Karagümrük win to nil18.6%5.36
- Konyaspor win to nil17.8%5.62
Handicap
- Fatih Karagümrük −1.517.6%5.68
- Fatih Karagümrük −2.56.5%15.48
- Konyaspor +1.582.4%1.21
- Konyaspor +2.593.5%1.07
- Konyaspor −1.516.6%6.04
- Fatih Karagümrük +1.583.4%1.20
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored104
Favourite won48.1%
Avg chance given to result40.1%
1X2 Brier0.592
Over 2.5 called right53.8%
BTTS called right49.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 16 | 38.2% | 25.0% |
| 40–50% | 48 | 44.0% | 37.5% |
| 50–60% | 22 | 55.2% | 63.6% |
| 60–70% | 11 | 65.9% | 72.7% |
| 70–80% | 6 | 75.9% | 83.3% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 80.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 79 of 104 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6023 | 0.5799 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.5% | 41.3% |
| Favourite won | 50.6% | 53.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 79 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 104 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.