Fatih Karagümrük
Attack—
Defense risk—
Fatih Karagümrük
18th · 12 pts · 22 played
LLLWL
0–0Full time
Samsunspor
7th · 30 pts · 22 played
DDWLL
Our take
It was too close to call.
Samsunspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (27 vs 12). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Fatih Karagümrük. Fatih Karagümrük had 6 days of rest, Samsunspor 9 and had to travel 619 km.
Away travel619 kmRest days6 · 9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Fatih Karagümrük33%
Draw27%
Samsunspor39%
Fatih Karagümrük29%
Draw27%
Samsunspor44%
Fatih Karagümrük33%
Draw27%
Samsunspor40%
Fatih Karagümrük27%
Draw27%
Samsunspor47%
Fatih Karagümrük34%
Draw28%
Samsunspor39%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOguzhan Cakir
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 16
Team strength
Fatih KaragümrükSamsunspor
12
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
13
AttackIn forecast
15
25
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSamsunspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Fatih KaragümrükSamsunspor
0.91
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.14
1.91
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.23
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
59%
Scored inContext
73%
9%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
10.18
ShotsContext
12.45
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.95
29%
On target shareContext
29%
5.59
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
55%
Box shareContext
60%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
2.70
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.27
Shots allowedContext
11.50
5.95
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.55
3.05
BlocksContext
3.22
3.95
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.74
64%
Save rateContext
70%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
360
PassesContext
407
283
Accurate passesContext
336
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.64
Team ratingContext
6.75
13.50
FoulsContext
14.23
14.73
Fouls sufferedContext
11.32
2.05
Yellow cardsContext
1.95
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.05
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.89
xGVia Att/Def
0.88
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.38
70%
Scored inContext
50%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.00
ShotsContext
11.80
3.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.38
31%
On target shareContext
23%
5.60
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
60%
Box shareContext
53%
9%
ConversionContext
4%
2.70
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.10
Shots allowedContext
10.50
5.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
2.50
BlocksContext
3.57
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.11
63%
Save rateContext
56%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
362
PassesContext
465
291
Accurate passesContext
392
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.66
12.90
FoulsContext
12.60
15.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fatih Karagümrük
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Samsunspor
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel619 km1,375 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fatih Karagümrük |
Samsunspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 16 Feb | 9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 13 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 619 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 1,375 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fatih Karagümrük
Confirmed XI
13I. Grbić(G)
25F. Mladenović
3Igor Lichnovsky
4D. Biraschi
47Ricardo Esgaio
6B. Elmaz
5M. Kranevitter
10D. Verde
8B. Özcan
80S. Babicka
23S. Larsson
Samsunspor
Confirmed XI
1O. Kocuk(G)
17L. Tómasson
4R. van Drongelen
37Ľ. Šatka
18Z. Yavru
29A. Makoumbou
5C. Yüksel
47Jaures Assoumou
21C. Holse
2J. Mendes
19P. Ndiaye
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fatih Karagümrük
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Samsunspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fatih Karagümrük+0.4 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Samsunspor-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Fatih Karagümrük · Home
0.73points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-7
- Scored
- 0.91
- Conceded
- 1.73
Samsunspor · Away
1.45points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-3
- Scored
- 1.45
- Conceded
- 1.36
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Fatih Karagümrük | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| Kasimpasa | L 2–3 AL 0–1 H | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Antalyaspor | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | L 1–3 AL 1–2 H |
| Goztepe | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Galatasaray | L 1–3 HL 0–3 A | L 2–3 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H | L 0–2 H |
| Alanyaspor | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Kocaelispor | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Genclerbirligi | L 0–3 A | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Besiktas | L 0–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Eyüpspor | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Konyaspor | W 2–0 H | W 3–1 A |
| Rizespor | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Kayserispor | D 2–2 H | W 3–1 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 0–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 3–4 H | L 0–3 HD 1–1 A |
| Points | 12 of 63 · 0.57 per game | 27 of 63 · 1.29 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Fatih Karagümrük wins0 draws2 Samsunspor wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 21 Sep 2025Samsunspor3–2Fatih Karagümrük
- 25 May 2024Fatih Karagümrük3–1Samsunspor
- 6 Jan 2024Samsunspor1–0Fatih Karagümrük
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fatih Karagümrük | Samsunspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.91 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.91 | 1.23 | |
| Match goals | 2.82 | 2.36 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 41% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 59% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 9% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 41% | 27% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Fatih Karagümrük | Samsunspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.30 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 30% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fatih Karagümrük | Samsunspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.55 | 5.48 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.27 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.82 | 9.48 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 11/22 | 62% 13/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 10/22 | 43% 9/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 6/22 | 38% 8/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.14 | 2.05 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.23 | 1.86 | |
| Match total | 4.37 | 3.91 | 4.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 16/22 | 55% 12/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 8/22 | 36% 8/22 | |
| Fatih Karagümrük | Samsunspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.30 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 3.22 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 8.89 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.10 | 4.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Oguzhan Cakir Türkiye · 16 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.44league 4.48
Red cards0.19league 0.22
Cards 5+38%league 47%
Fouls25.7league 26.0
Penalties0.50league 0.26
Home wins38%league 38%
Fatih Karagümrük1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L5 Oct 25H · Gazişehir Gaziantep0–21
SamsunsporNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fatih Karagümrük22 games · scored 20 · conceded 42
2
5
0-15
3
5
16-30
4
7
31-45
1
6
46-60
2
13
61-75
8
6
76-90
Samsunspor22 games · scored 25 · conceded 27
5
2
0-15
1
6
16-30
3
3
31-45
5
4
46-60
4
4
61-75
7
8
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük10 games · scored 8 · conceded 19
2
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
6
61-75
3
2
76-90
Samsunspor10 games · scored 5 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
46-60
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
