FC Augsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Bayer Leverkusen were slight favourites.
Bayer Leverkusen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 51). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for FC Augsburg. FC Augsburg had 5.9 days of rest, Bayer Leverkusen 7 and had to travel 408 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel408 kmRest days5.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
FC Augsburg33%
Draw23%
Bayer Leverkusen44%
FC Augsburg29%
Draw26%
Bayer Leverkusen45%
FC Augsburg33%
Draw23%
Bayer Leverkusen44%
FC Augsburg26%
Draw22%
Bayer Leverkusen52%
FC Augsburg35%
Draw23%
Bayer Leverkusen42%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 65%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Augsburg)
22°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 10 km/h
- Humidity 39%
Referee · GermanyDaniel Siebert
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 132
Team strength
FC Augsburg
Bayer Leverkusen
51
L90 StrengthIn forecast
75
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
78
72
AttackIn forecast
87
23
DefenceIn forecast
79
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBayer Leverkusen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC AugsburgBayer Leverkusen
3.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
2.43
xGVia Att/Def
2.50
2.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.83
+1.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.50
100%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
20.50
ShotsContext
21.00
10.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.00
49%
On target shareContext
33%
13.50
Shots in the boxContext
14.50
64%
Box shareContext
69%
17%
ConversionContext
14%
—
OffsidesContext
2.00
16.50
Shots allowedContext
8.00
6.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
3.50
BlocksContext
2.00
5.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
85%
Save rateContext
50%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
66%
390
PassesContext
581
300
Accurate passesContext
516
77%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
7.42
Team ratingContext
7.16
9.00
FoulsContext
13.00
8.00
Fouls sufferedContext
15.00
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.81
xGVia Att/Def
2.26
1.84
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
90%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.60
ShotsContext
17.80
6.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.40
40%
On target shareContext
36%
10.80
Shots in the boxContext
12.90
68%
Box shareContext
69%
14%
ConversionContext
14%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.75
16.90
Shots allowedContext
13.30
5.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.33
5.00
BlocksContext
3.30
4.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.63
71%
Save rateContext
62%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
335
PassesContext
546
257
Accurate passesContext
483
77%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.98
Team ratingContext
7.11
8.80
FoulsContext
8.10
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Augsburg
WW
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km504 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 76 · 6 pts vs 2.8 for an average club · +3.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Augsburg |
Bayer Leverkusen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Bundesliga 2026-2027, 6 Sep | 7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 5 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 408 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 504 km | 382 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 4.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Augsburg
Confirmed XI
1F. Dahmen(G)
2C. Brackelmann
5C. Matsima
40N. Banks
16Hennes Behrens
32F. Rieder
4H. Massengo
27M. Wolf
21A. Ibrahimović
19Robin Fellhauer
11M. Gregoritsch
Bayer Leverkusen
Confirmed XI
1M. Flekken(G)
3Miguel Gutiérrez
2F. Medina
12E. Tapsoba
4J. Quansah
24Aleix García
6E. Fernández
9Afonso Moreira
30I. Maza
19M. Diaby
35Christian Kofane
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Augsburg
Absences are shown before kick-off
Bayer Leverkusen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Augsburg+0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Bayer Leverkusen-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Augsburg · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Bayer Leverkusen · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
4 FC Augsburg wins0 draws6 Bayer Leverkusen wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.80
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets20% · 30%
- 18 Apr 2026Bayer Leverkusen1–2FC Augsburg
- 6 Dec 2025FC Augsburg2–0Bayer Leverkusen
- 26 Apr 2025Bayer Leverkusen2–0FC Augsburg
- 14 Dec 2024FC Augsburg0–2Bayer Leverkusen
- 18 May 2024Bayer Leverkusen2–1FC Augsburg
- 13 Jan 2024FC Augsburg0–1Bayer Leverkusen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Augsburg | Bayer Leverkusen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.50 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 4.50 | 3.31 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| FC Augsburg | Bayer Leverkusen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.80 | 4.20 | 3.31 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 80% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Augsburg | Bayer Leverkusen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.50 | 7.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 13.50 | 9.50 | 11.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 4.50 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| FC Augsburg | Bayer Leverkusen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 7.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 3.22 | |
| Match total | 10.90 | 10.33 | 11.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.00 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniel Siebert Germany · 132 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.41league 3.47
Red cards0.21league 0.11
Cards 5+51%league 21%
Fouls23.1league 23.2
Penalties0.28league 0.05
Home wins42%league 53%
FC Augsburg8 with this referee
Record2-1-5
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.1
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W2 May 26A · Werder Bremen3–11
- L25 Oct 25H · RB Leipzig0–63
- L28 Sep 24A · RB Leipzig0–42
- L20 Dec 23A · VfB Stuttgart0–34
- L27 Aug 23A · Bayern München1–32
Bayer Leverkusen15 with this referee
Record4-8-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L23 Aug 25H · 1899 Hoffenheim1–20
- D4 May 25A · SC Freiburg2–22
- W16 Mar 25A · VfB Stuttgart4–32
- D15 Feb 25H · Bayern München0–02
- D1 Nov 24H · VfB Stuttgart0–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Augsburg2 games · scored 7 · conceded 1
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
3
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen2 games · scored 6 · conceded 3
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 21 · conceded 17
3
4
0-15
4
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 25 · conceded 17
3
4
0-15
4
1
16-30
5
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
7
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
