Bundesliga Gameweek 1 Sun, Aug 30 · 16:30 WWK Arena, Augsburg
FC Augsburg
3–0Full time
FC Schalke 04
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

FC Augsburg were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. FC Augsburg had 106.1 days of rest, FC Schalke 04 ? and had to travel 442 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel442 kmRest days106.1 · ?Matches / 14d0 · 0
FC Augsburg43%
Draw25%
FC Schalke 0432%
Expected goals 1.52 – 1.28
FC Augsburg43%
Draw26%
FC Schalke 0431%
Expected goals 1.47 – 1.22
FC Augsburg43%
Draw25%
FC Schalke 0432%
Expected goals 1.52 – 1.27
FC Augsburg36%
Draw25%
FC Schalke 0439%
Expected goals 1.35 – 1.43
FC Augsburg44%
Draw25%
FC Schalke 0432%
Expected goals 1.57 – 1.30
Over 2.5 53% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Augsburg)
26°CPartly cloudy
  • Precipitation 0.0 mm
  • Wind 10 km/h
  • Humidity 46%
Referee · GermanySascha Stegemann
  • Cards per match 4.4
  • Penalties per match 0.19
  • Matches 98

Team strength

FC AugsburgFC Schalke 04
45 L90 StrengthIn forecast 47
50 Current StrengthIn forecast 46
72 AttackIn forecast 33
23 DefenceIn forecast 50
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FC Augsburg

Attack—
Defense risk—

FC Schalke 04

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FC AugsburgFC Schalke 04
— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —
— Goals concededVia Att/Def —
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
— Scored inContext —
— Clean sheetsContext —
— ShotsContext —
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
— On target shareContext —
— Shots in the boxContext —
— Box shareContext —
— ConversionContext —
— OffsidesContext —
— Shots allowedContext —
— On target allowedVia Att/Def —
— BlocksContext —
— Goalkeeper savesContext —
— Save rateContext —
— PossessionIn forecast —
— PassesContext —
— Accurate passesContext —
— Pass accuracyContext —
— Team ratingContext —
— FoulsContext —
— Fouls sufferedContext —
— Yellow cardsContext —
— Red cardsContext —
This league season, per match
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.63 xGVia Att/Def 1.64
1.85 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.92
-0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.04
80% Scored inContext 90%
0% Clean sheetsContext 40%
13.50 ShotsContext 14.90
4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.90
36% On target shareContext 33%
9.50 Shots in the boxContext 10.70
68% Box shareContext 73%
11% ConversionContext 11%
2.33 OffsidesContext 1.75
16.90 Shots allowedContext 8.50
5.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.10
5.00 BlocksContext 2.00
4.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.20
70% Save rateContext 71%
39% PossessionIn forecast 49%
325 PassesContext 381
250 Accurate passesContext 287
77% Pass accuracyContext 75%
6.82 Team ratingContext 6.92
8.60 FoulsContext 9.90
9.90 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50
1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FC Augsburg
Rest106.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
FC Schalke 04
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel442 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
FC Augsburg FC Schalke 04
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match106.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 16 May—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km442 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 00 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one76

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FC Augsburg Confirmed XI
3-4-2-1
1F. Dahmen(G)
2C. Brackelmann 5C. Matsima 40N. Banks
16Hennes Behrens 32F. Rieder 4H. Massengo 27M. Wolf
19Robin Fellhauer 30A. Kade
11M. Gregoritsch
+3 more reported missing outside this XI
FC Schalke 04 Confirmed XI
3-4-2-1
1L. Karius(G)
4H. Kuruçay 25N. Katić 5T. Becker
33V. Becker 6R. Schallenberg 23S. El-Faouzi 21D. Ljubičić
24A. Aouchiche 20C. Adamu
9M. Sylla
+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
FC Augsburg Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Schalke 04 Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • FC Augsburg-0.2 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • FC Schalke 04+0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

FC Augsburg · Home No home games yet this season.
FC Schalke 04 · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 FC Augsburg wins1 draws0 FC Schalke 04 wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%
  • 18 Mar 2023FC Augsburg1–1FC Schalke 04
  • 2 Oct 2022FC Schalke 042–3FC Augsburg

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

FC AugsburgFC Schalke 04Forecast
Scored per game ——
Conceded per game ——
Match goals —— 2.80
Over 1.5 ——
Over 2.5 —— 53%
Over 3.5 ——
Both teams scored —— 56%
Clean sheets ——
Failed to score ——
Games00
FC AugsburgFC Schalke 04Forecast
Scored per game 1.50—
Conceded per game 2.00—
Match goals 3.50— 2.80
Over 1.5 100%—
Over 2.5 70%— 53%
Over 3.5 50%—
Both teams scored 80%— 56%
Clean sheets 0%—
Failed to score 20%—
Games100

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

FC AugsburgFC Schalke 04League
Corners
Corners won——
Corners conceded——
Match total——10.00
Over 8.5——
Over 9.5——
Over 10.5——
Cards
Cards——
Opponent cards——
Match total——3.38
Over 3.5——
Over 4.5——
FC AugsburgFC Schalke 04League
Corners
Corners won4.304.00
Corners conceded6.604.30
Match total10.908.3010.00
Over 8.570% 7/1050% 5/10
Over 9.570% 7/1040% 4/10
Over 10.560% 6/1020% 2/10
Cards
Cards1.701.70
Opponent cards1.901.50
Match total3.603.203.38
Over 3.550% 5/1050% 5/10
Over 4.520% 2/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sascha Stegemann Germany · 98 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.18league 3.25
Red cards0.18league 0.13
Cards 5+47%league 25%
Fouls23.2league 26.0
Penalties0.19league 0.13
Home wins34%league 75%
FC Augsburg9 with this referee
Record2-4-3 Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 1
  • W31 Jan 26H · FC St. Pauli2–13
  • D14 Feb 25H · RB Leipzig0–02
  • D24 Aug 24H · Werder Bremen2–23
  • L9 Dec 23A · Werder Bremen0–22
  • L16 Sep 23A · RB Leipzig0–30
FC Schalke 04

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

FC Augsburg
No complete event data.
FC Schalke 04
No complete event data.
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 15 · conceded 20
3 4 0-15
3 1 16-30
4 4 31-45
1 4 46-60
3 2 61-75
1 5 76-90
FC Schalke 0410 games · scored 16 · conceded 10
2 2 0-15
2 2 16-30
7 2 31-45
2 46-60
2 1 61-75
1 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

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Bayern München VfB Stuttgart 51 FSV Mainz 05 SC Paderborn 07 00 RB Leipzig Borussia Mönchengladbach 30 Union Berlin Eintracht Frankfurt 33 1.FC Köln 1899 Hoffenheim 32 SV Elversberg Bayer Leverkusen 32 Borussia Dortmund Hamburger SV 20 SC Freiburg Werder Bremen 41 FC Augsburg FC Schalke 04 30