FC Porto vs Alverca – 9 Aug 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 1 Sun, Aug 9 · 18:00 Estádio Do Dragão, Porto

FC Porto

2–0Full time

Alverca

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

FC Porto were clear favourites.

FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Alverca. FC Porto had 85.1 days of rest, Alverca 84.9 and had to travel 253 km.

Away travel253 kmRest days85.1 · 84.9Matches / 14d0 · 0

FC Porto72%

Draw17%

Alverca10%

Expected goals 2.26 – 0.73

FC Porto76%

Draw15%

Alverca9%

Expected goals 2.50 – 0.72

FC Porto72%

Draw17%

Alverca10%

Expected goals 2.26 – 0.73

FC Porto65%

Draw21%

Alverca14%

Expected goals 2.01 – 0.81

FC Porto72%

Draw18%

Alverca11%

Expected goals 2.25 – 0.74

Over 2.5 57% Both score 46% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Porto)

No weather data yet

RefereeL. M. Branco Godinho

Cards per match 2.7
Penalties per match 0.33
Matches 3

Team strength

FC Porto

Alverca

77 L90 StrengthIn forecast 26

80 Current StrengthIn forecast 30

74 AttackIn forecast 38

80 DefenceIn forecast 42

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FC Porto

Attack—

Defense risk—

Alverca

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FC Porto

Alverca

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.70 xGVia Att/Def 1.07

0.88 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.82

-0.20 Goals minus xGContext +0.03

90% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

14.30 ShotsContext 10.70

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60

31% On target shareContext 34%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.40

61% Box shareContext 61%

11% ConversionContext 10%

2.13 OffsidesContext 2.50

9.20 Shots allowedContext 12.30

3.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

2.00 BlocksContext 3.67

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

72% Save rateContext 67%

52% PossessionIn forecast 48%

415 PassesContext 368

348 Accurate passesContext 300

84% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.80

12.90 FoulsContext 11.10

12.20 Fouls sufferedContext 12.80

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FC Porto

Rest85.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Alverca

Rest84.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel253 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FC Porto	Alverca
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	85.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 16 May	84.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 16 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	253 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	6.1	5.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FC Porto Confirmed XI

4-3-3

99Diogo Costa(G)

12Z. Sanusi 4J. Kiwior 5J. Bednarek 52Martim Fernandes

10Gabri Veiga 22A. Varela 8V. Froholdt

11Pepê 19André Silva 7William Gomes

Alverca Confirmed XI

3-4-3

31Matheus Mendes(G)

33B. Meupiyou 4Y. Bojang 14S. Baseya

12Isaac James 6D. Gui 25Ian Luccas 2Zoubdi

22Figueiredo 9Vivaldo Semedo 10Chiquinho

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FC Porto Absences are shown before kick-off

Alverca Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

FC Porto+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Alverca+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

FC Porto · Home No home games yet this season.

Alverca · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

2 FC Porto wins0 draws0 Alverca wins

Goals per game2.00 – 0.00 Over 2.550% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 0%

2 May 2026FC Porto1–0Alverca
22 Dec 2025Alverca0–3FC Porto

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	FC Porto	Alverca	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.98
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	57%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	46%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	FC Porto	Alverca	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.10
Conceded per game	1.00	1.30
Match goals	2.50	2.40	2.98
Over 1.5	70%	60%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	57%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	46%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	10%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FC Porto	Alverca	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	9.25
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.50
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	FC Porto	Alverca	League
Corners
Corners won	5.25	5.22
Corners conceded	3.75	5.00
Match total	9.00	10.22	9.25
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.70	1.40
Opponent cards	2.50	2.10
Match total	5.20	3.50	4.50
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · L. M. Branco Godinho 3 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.67league 4.25

Red cards0.00league 0.25

Cards 5+0%league 25%

Fouls22.7league 24.5

Penalties0.33league 0.00

Home wins67%league 25%

FC Porto

No previous matches with this referee.

Alverca

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.