FC Porto vs Arouca – 23 Aug 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 3 Sun, Aug 23 · 20:30 Estádio Do Dragão, Porto

FC Porto 5th · 6 pts · 2 played WW

2–0Full time

Arouca 4th · 6 pts · 2 played WW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

FC Porto were clear favourites.

FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (78 vs 34). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Arouca. FC Porto had 8 days of rest, Arouca 7.1 and had to travel 39 km.

Away travel39 kmRest days8 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

FC Porto68%

Draw19%

Arouca13%

Expected goals 2.15 – 0.84

FC Porto72%

Draw17%

Arouca11%

Expected goals 2.32 – 0.77

FC Porto68%

Draw19%

Arouca13%

Expected goals 2.15 – 0.84

FC Porto60%

Draw22%

Arouca18%

Expected goals 1.92 – 0.94

FC Porto67%

Draw19%

Arouca14%

Expected goals 2.12 – 0.83

Over 2.5 57% Both score 50% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Porto)

No weather data yet

RefereeJoao Pinheiro

Cards per match 2.9
Penalties per match 0.38
Matches 8

Team strength

FC Porto

Arouca

78 L90 StrengthIn forecast 34

80 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

74 AttackIn forecast 28

80 DefenceIn forecast 37

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FC Porto

Attack—

Defense risk—

Arouca

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FC Porto

Arouca

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50

0.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.00

2.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.34

1.14 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39

-0.31 Goals minus xGContext +1.16

100% Scored inContext 100%

100% Clean sheetsContext 100%

11.50 ShotsContext 9.50

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

39% On target shareContext 42%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

71% Box shareContext 74%

17% ConversionContext 26%

— OffsidesContext 2.00

14.00 Shots allowedContext 14.50

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.00

3.50 BlocksContext 4.00

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

100% Save rateContext 100%

53% PossessionIn forecast 47%

419 PassesContext 436

359 Accurate passesContext 359

86% Pass accuracyContext 82%

7.13 Team ratingContext 7.15

11.50 FoulsContext 8.50

5.50 Fouls sufferedContext 9.00

0.00 Yellow cardsContext 3.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.99 xGVia Att/Def 1.28

0.88 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.95

-0.49 Goals minus xGContext +0.62

90% Scored inContext 90%

50% Clean sheetsContext 40%

14.60 ShotsContext 11.60

4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60

32% On target shareContext 31%

9.40 Shots in the boxContext 6.80

63% Box shareContext 58%

10% ConversionContext 16%

2.29 OffsidesContext 2.00

10.40 Shots allowedContext 10.90

3.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.80

2.56 BlocksContext 3.20

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.80

78% Save rateContext 64%

54% PossessionIn forecast 50%

429 PassesContext 433

361 Accurate passesContext 363

84% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.88

11.80 FoulsContext 11.60

10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 3.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FC Porto WW

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km51 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 69 · 6 pts vs 3.7 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected

W15 AugA · Rio Ave2–02.1 xPts
W9 AugH · Alverca2–02.3 xPts

Arouca WW

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel39 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 71 · 6 pts vs 3.5 for an average club · +3.0 vs expected

W16 AugH · Moreirense4–01.8 xPts
W8 AugA · Guimaraes1–01.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FC Porto	Arouca
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 15 Aug	7.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 16 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	39 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	51 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	5.9	5.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FC Porto Confirmed XI

4-3-3

99Diogo Costa(G)

12Z. Sanusi 4J. Kiwior 5J. Bednarek 20Alberto Baio

10Gabri Veiga 13P. Rosario 8V. Froholdt

11Pepê 19André Silva 7William Gomes

Arouca Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

12I. de Arruabarrena(G)

18O. Lebedenko 3José Fontán 15Javi Sánchez 28Tiago Esgaio

8T. Fukui 6E. van Ee

7N. Djouahra 14Lee Hyun-Ju 19A. Trezza

17Barbero

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FC Porto Absences are shown before kick-off

Arouca Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

FC Porto+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Arouca+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

FC Porto · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.00

Arouca · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

6 FC Porto wins1 draws1 Arouca wins

Goals per game2.75 – 0.75 Over 2.563% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

27 Feb 2026FC Porto3–1Arouca
29 Sep 2025Arouca0–4FC Porto
1 Mar 2025Arouca0–2FC Porto
29 Sep 2024FC Porto4–0Arouca
12 Feb 2024Arouca3–2FC Porto
3 Sep 2023FC Porto1–1Arouca

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	FC Porto	Arouca	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	2.50
Conceded per game	0.00	0.00
Match goals	2.00	2.50	2.99
Over 1.5	100%	50%
Over 2.5	0%	50%	57%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	50%
Clean sheets	100%	100%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	2	2

	FC Porto	Arouca	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.90
Conceded per game	0.70	0.90
Match goals	2.20	2.80	2.99
Over 1.5	70%	60%
Over 2.5	30%	60%	57%
Over 3.5	20%	50%
Both teams scored	40%	50%	50%
Clean sheets	50%	40%
Failed to score	10%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FC Porto	Arouca	League
Corners
Corners won	6.50	3.50
Corners conceded	7.50	4.00
Match total	14.00	7.50	8.62
Over 8.5	100% 2/2	0% 0/2
Over 9.5	100% 2/2	0% 0/2
Over 10.5	100% 2/2	0% 0/2
Cards
Cards	0.00	4.00
Opponent cards	2.00	3.00
Match total	2.00	7.00	4.57
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	100% 2/2
Over 4.5	0% 0/2	100% 2/2

	FC Porto	Arouca	League
Corners
Corners won	5.88	4.00
Corners conceded	4.88	4.60
Match total	10.76	8.60	8.62
Over 8.5	75% 6/8	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	63% 5/8	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	50% 4/8	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	3.20
Opponent cards	2.20	1.80
Match total	3.90	5.00	4.57
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Joao Pinheiro 8 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.75league 4.45

Red cards0.13league 0.23

Cards 5+0%league 41%

Fouls22.4league 25.8

Penalties0.38league 0.32

Home wins38%league 41%

FC Porto

No previous matches with this referee.

Arouca

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.