FC Porto
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FC Porto were clear favourites.
FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 28). FC Porto usually keep the ball (57% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. FC Porto had 4 days of rest, Malmo FF 14 and had to travel 2,247 km.
Away travel2,247 kmRest days4 · 14Matches / 14d2 · 1
FC Porto76%
Draw16%
Malmo FF9%
FC Porto73%
Draw17%
Malmo FF9%
FC Porto75%
Draw16%
Malmo FF9%
FC Porto69%
Draw19%
Malmo FF12%
FC Porto74%
Draw17%
Malmo FF9%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Porto)
No weather data yet
RefereeRohit Saggi
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 23
Team strength
FC Porto
Malmo FF
75
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
80
Current StrengthIn forecast
25
74
AttackIn forecast
24
80
DefenceIn forecast
20
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMalmo FF
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC PortoMalmo FF
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.40
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
0.56
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.00
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
80%
Scored inContext
40%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.00
ShotsContext
7.40
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.40
29%
On target shareContext
32%
8.60
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
66%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
5%
1.80
OffsidesContext
1.67
9.80
Shots allowedContext
17.20
2.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.80
3.40
BlocksContext
4.60
1.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.80
55%
Save rateContext
71%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
482
PassesContext
401
411
Accurate passesContext
328
85%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.64
11.80
FoulsContext
9.80
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.37
xGVia Att/Def
0.56
0.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.00
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
80%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.50
ShotsContext
8.00
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.25
38%
On target shareContext
36%
8.70
Shots in the boxContext
5.00
69%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.22
OffsidesContext
1.43
8.60
Shots allowedContext
14.33
2.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.22
3.10
BlocksContext
4.22
1.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
69%
Save rateContext
68%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
464
PassesContext
426
392
Accurate passesContext
352
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.63
13.10
FoulsContext
10.11
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.89
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Porto
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km166 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Malmo FF
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel2,247 km1,926 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Porto |
Malmo FF |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 25 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 7 Dec | 14UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 27 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 2,247 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 166 km | 1,926 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 41.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Porto
Confirmed XI
99Diogo Costa(G)
74Francisco Moura
4J. Kiwior
5J. Bednarek
52Martim Fernandes
86Rodrigo Mora
13P. Rosario
8V. Froholdt
17Borja Sainz
9Samu Omorodion
11Pepê
Malmo FF
Confirmed XI
30R. Olsen(G)
25Gabriel Busanello
19C. Rösler
18P. Jansson
17J. Stryger Larsen
48Theodor Lundbergh
40K. Busuladžić
23L. Berg Johnsen
29S. Hakšabanović
15S. Soumah
37A. Skogmar
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Porto
Absences are shown before kick-off
Malmo FF
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Porto+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Malmo FF-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Porto · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Malmo FF · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | FC Porto | Malmo FF |
|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | L 0–2 A | L 0–3 A |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| FC Porto | Malmo FF | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.40 | 3.27 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 60% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| FC Porto | Malmo FF | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.40 | 3.27 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Porto | Malmo FF | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.40 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.60 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.00 | 8.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 5.60 | 4.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 5/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 3/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| FC Porto | Malmo FF | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 3.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.60 | 4.57 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 8.43 | 8.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 4.50 | 4.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Rohit Saggi 23 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.57league 4.13
Red cards0.35league 0.19
Cards 5+57%league 42%
Fouls26.1league 24.7
Penalties0.22league 0.36
Home wins52%league 51%
FC PortoNo previous matches with this referee.
Malmo FFNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Porto5 games · scored 7 · conceded 4
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Malmo FF5 games · scored 2 · conceded 10
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
1
2
76-90
FC Porto10 games · scored 14 · conceded 6
3
0-15
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
Malmo FF10 games · scored 8 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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