FC Porto vs Manchester City – 8 Sep 2026

UEFA Champions League Matchday 1 Tue, Sep 8 · 20:00 Estádio Do Dragão, Porto

FC Porto

0–2Full time

Manchester City

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,452 kmRest days4 · 3.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

FC Porto—%

Draw—%

Manchester City—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Porto)

20°CLight rain

Precipitation 0.1 mm
Wind 5 km/h
Humidity 94%

RefereeSzymon Marciniak

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.35
Matches 80

Team strength

FC Porto

Manchester City

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

80 Current StrengthIn forecast 91

74 AttackIn forecast 92

80 DefenceIn forecast 82

89 Form indexContext 88

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FC Porto

Attack—

Defense risk—

Manchester City

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FC Porto

Manchester City

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

2.04 xGVia Att/Def 2.03

0.82 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.26

-0.24 Goals minus xGContext +0.07

100% Scored inContext 100%

70% Clean sheetsContext 40%

15.20 ShotsContext 18.00

5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90

38% On target shareContext 33%

10.40 Shots in the boxContext 12.80

69% Box shareContext 73%

12% ConversionContext 12%

2.78 OffsidesContext 2.20

9.20 Shots allowedContext 9.00

2.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.90

2.22 BlocksContext 2.78

2.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.10

77% Save rateContext 72%

57% PossessionIn forecast 65%

451 PassesContext 630

384 Accurate passesContext 563

85% Pass accuracyContext 89%

7.00 Team ratingContext 7.12

13.60 FoulsContext 8.40

10.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40

1.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FC Porto WWWWW

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km160 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 89 · 15 pts vs 9.2 for an average club · +3.7 vs expected

W4 SepH · Moreirense2–12.5 xPts
W29 AugA · Academico Viseu3–02.1 xPts
W23 AugH · Arouca2–02.2 xPts
W15 AugA · Rio Ave2–02.1 xPts
W9 AugH · Alverca2–02.3 xPts

Manchester City WWW

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,452 km524 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 88 · 9 pts vs 3.5 for an average club · +2.8 vs expected

W5 SepH · Coventry1–02.5 xPts
W28 AugA · Crystal Palace4–11.7 xPts
W23 AugH · Bournemouth2–11.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FC Porto	Manchester City
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 4 Sep	3.2Premier League 2026-2027, 5 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,452 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	160 km	524 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	3.9	4.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FC Porto Confirmed XI

4-3-3

99Diogo Costa(G)

52Martim Fernandes 4J. Kiwior 18P. Pérez 20Alberto Baio

10Gabri Veiga 22A. Varela 13P. Rosario

11Pepê 19André Silva 7William Gomes

Manchester City Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1G. Donnarumma(G)

24J. Gvardiol 3Rúben Dias 6A. Guéhi 27M. Nunes

17E. Fernández 32A. Bouaddi

42A. Semenyo 10M. Cherki 47P. Foden

9E. Haaland

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FC Porto Absences are shown before kick-off

Manchester City Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

FC Porto · Home No home games yet this season.

Manchester City · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	FC Porto	Manchester City
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	FC Porto	Manchester City
Scored per game	1.80	2.10
Conceded per game	0.50	0.90
Match goals	2.30	3.00
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	70%
Over 3.5	10%	20%
Both teams scored	30%	60%
Clean sheets	70%	40%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FC Porto	Manchester City	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	9.50
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.50
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	FC Porto	Manchester City	League
Corners
Corners won	7.00	8.00
Corners conceded	3.78	4.00
Match total	10.78	12.00	9.50
Over 8.5	89% 8/9	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	78% 7/9	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	80% 8/10
Cards
Cards	1.30	1.40
Opponent cards	2.10	1.90
Match total	3.40	3.30	4.50
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Szymon Marciniak 80 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.04league 4.50

Red cards0.13league 0.00

Cards 5+43%league 50%

Fouls24.0league 26.5

Penalties0.35league 0.50

Home wins55%league 50%

FC Porto1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

L7 Sep 22A · Atletico Madrid1–24

Manchester City2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W5 Nov 25H · Borussia Dortmund4–12
L22 Jan 25A · Paris Saint Germain2–41

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.