FC Porto
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FC Porto were clear favourites.
FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for FC Porto. FC Porto had 6.1 days of rest, Moreirense 5.1 and had to travel 35 km.
Away travel35 kmRest days6.1 · 5.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
FC Porto79%
Draw14%
Moreirense7%
FC Porto77%
Draw15%
Moreirense8%
FC Porto79%
Draw14%
Moreirense7%
FC Porto73%
Draw17%
Moreirense10%
FC Porto79%
Draw14%
Moreirense7%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 43%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Porto)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalAntonio Nobre
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 81
Team strength
FC Porto
Moreirense
79
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
80
Current StrengthIn forecast
25
74
AttackIn forecast
17
80
DefenceIn forecast
27
85
Form indexContext
45
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMoreirense
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC PortoMoreirense
2.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
2.25
xGVia Att/Def
0.33
0.90
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.67
100%
Scored inContext
67%
100%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
12.75
ShotsContext
6.00
5.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
45%
On target shareContext
50%
9.25
Shots in the boxContext
2.67
74%
Box shareContext
46%
18%
ConversionContext
17%
3.33
OffsidesContext
—
10.25
Shots allowedContext
14.00
2.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.00
BlocksContext
3.00
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
100%
Save rateContext
50%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
421
PassesContext
367
358
Accurate passesContext
277
85%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
7.19
Team ratingContext
6.44
14.50
FoulsContext
14.00
8.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.67
0.25
Yellow cardsContext
3.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.94
xGVia Att/Def
0.59
0.93
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
-0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
90%
Scored inContext
60%
70%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.90
ShotsContext
8.20
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
35%
On target shareContext
37%
9.40
Shots in the boxContext
4.40
67%
Box shareContext
53%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.63
OffsidesContext
1.20
10.40
Shots allowedContext
12.00
3.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
2.67
BlocksContext
3.40
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
79%
Save rateContext
61%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
428
PassesContext
414
361
Accurate passesContext
335
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.70
13.40
FoulsContext
13.00
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.90
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Porto
WWWW
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km160 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 85 · 12 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +3.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Porto |
Moreirense |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 29 Aug | 5.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 35 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 160 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
FC Porto
Confirmed XI
99Diogo Costa(G)
74Francisco Moura
4J. Kiwior
5J. Bednarek
20Alberto Baio
10Gabri Veiga
13P. Rosario
8V. Froholdt
11Pepê
19André Silva
7William Gomes
Moreirense
Confirmed XI
13André Ferreira(G)
27Kiko
26Maracás
66G. Dambi Batista
11Landerson
65Guilherme Liberato
23N. John
76Dinis Pinto
20João Veloso
9A. Duville-Parsemain
7Manuel Mendonça
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Porto
Absences are shown before kick-off
Moreirense
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Porto+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Moreirense+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Porto · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Moreirense · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | FC Porto | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| Arouca | W 2–0 H | L 0–4 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
6 FC Porto wins0 draws0 Moreirense wins
Goals per game3.00 – 0.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 15 Mar 2026FC Porto3–0Moreirense
- 27 Oct 2025Moreirense1–2FC Porto
- 2 May 2025FC Porto3–1Moreirense
- 21 Dec 2024Moreirense0–3FC Porto
- 20 Jan 2024FC Porto5–0Moreirense
- 14 Aug 2023Moreirense1–2FC Porto
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Porto | Moreirense | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.25 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.18 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 67% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 33% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 4 | 3 |
| FC Porto | Moreirense | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.50 | 3.18 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Porto | Moreirense | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 2.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 6.67 | 8.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 3/4 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 75% 3/4 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.25 | 3.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 1.25 | 5.67 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 1/4 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/4 | 67% 2/3 | |
| FC Porto | Moreirense | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.11 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 10.55 | 8.00 | 8.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 5.20 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Antonio Nobre Portugal · 81 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.00league 3.88
Red cards0.41league 0.15
Cards 5+57%league 33%
Fouls27.6league 25.6
Penalties0.33league 0.27
Home wins60%league 42%
FC Porto9 with this referee
Record6-2-1
Cards · opp.3.4 · 3.7
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds4
- W22 Mar 26A · SC Braga2–15
- W26 Jan 26H · GIL Vicente3–02
- W11 Aug 25H · Guimaraes3–01
- D24 Feb 25H · Guimaraes1–12
- L30 Mar 24A · Estoril0–110
Moreirense5 with this referee
Record1-2-2
Cards · opp.3.6 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L30 Jan 26A · Guimaraes0–15
- L29 Aug 25A · GIL Vicente0–22
- W5 Dec 24H · Sporting CP2–13
- D21 Sep 24H · Famalicao0–05
- D21 Aug 23A · Famalicao0–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Porto4 games · scored 9 · conceded 0
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Moreirense3 games · scored 3 · conceded 6
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
FC Porto10 games · scored 16 · conceded 5
3
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Moreirense10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
3
3
0-15
2
5
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
