FC Porto vs Nice – 27 Nov 2025

UEFA Europa League Matchday 5 Thu, Nov 27 · 17:45 Estádio Do Dragão, Porto

FC Porto 14th · 7 pts · 4 played WWLD

3–0Full time

Nice 35th · 0 pts · 4 played LLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

FC Porto were clear favourites.

FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 37). FC Porto had 18 days of rest, Nice 5.9 and had to travel 1,332 km.

Away travel1,332 kmRest days18 · 5.9Matches / 14d0 · 1

FC Porto69%

Draw19%

Nice12%

Expected goals 2.26 – 0.86

FC Porto67%

Draw20%

Nice13%

Expected goals 2.13 – 0.84

FC Porto68%

Draw20%

Nice13%

Expected goals 2.21 – 0.85

FC Porto61%

Draw22%

Nice17%

Expected goals 2.02 – 0.97

FC Porto67%

Draw20%

Nice13%

Expected goals 2.18 – 0.85

Over 2.5 60% Both score 52% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Porto)

No weather data yet

RefereeMatej Jug

Cards per match 5.1
Penalties per match 0.32
Matches 22

Team strength

FC Porto

Nice

74 L90 StrengthIn forecast 37

80 Current StrengthIn forecast 27

74 AttackIn forecast 26

80 DefenceIn forecast 35

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FC Porto

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nice

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FC Porto

Nice

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.25

1.36 xGVia Att/Def 1.24

1.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42

-0.36 Goals minus xGContext -0.24

75% Scored inContext 100%

25% Clean sheetsContext 0%

14.75 ShotsContext 10.25

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

27% On target shareContext 29%

9.75 Shots in the boxContext 6.75

66% Box shareContext 64%

7% ConversionContext 10%

1.50 OffsidesContext 1.50

10.25 Shots allowedContext 17.25

2.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

3.50 BlocksContext 6.25

1.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25

55% Save rateContext 59%

58% PossessionIn forecast 44%

480 PassesContext 388

406 Accurate passesContext 315

85% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.71

11.00 FoulsContext 10.25

12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 16.25

2.75 Yellow cardsContext 1.25

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

0.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.51 xGVia Att/Def 1.07

0.65 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.89

+0.09 Goals minus xGContext +0.33

80% Scored inContext 90%

50% Clean sheetsContext 10%

14.60 ShotsContext 9.40

4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

32% On target shareContext 37%

9.80 Shots in the boxContext 6.11

66% Box shareContext 61%

11% ConversionContext 15%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.71

8.60 Shots allowedContext 18.80

2.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.90

3.20 BlocksContext 6.80

1.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.56

67% Save rateContext 72%

54% PossessionIn forecast 40%

442 PassesContext 341

372 Accurate passesContext 277

84% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.78

12.50 FoulsContext 11.60

13.10 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FC Porto

Rest18 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Nice

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,332 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FC Porto	Nice
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	18Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 9 Nov	5.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 21 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,332 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 3	1 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	3.1	2.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FC Porto Confirmed XI

4-3-3

99Diogo Costa(G)

74Francisco Moura 4J. Kiwior 13P. Rosario 20Alberto Baio

10Gabri Veiga 22A. Varela 8V. Froholdt

27D. Gül 9Samu Omorodion 11Pepê

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Nice Confirmed XI

3-5-2

80Y. Diouf(G)

26M. Bard 4Dante 33A. Mendy

2A. Abdi 10S. Diop 24C. Vanhoutte 8M. Sanson 92J. Clauss

9T. Moffi 25M. Cho

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FC Porto Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Nice Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

FC Porto+0.6 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Nice-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

FC Porto · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.00

Nice · Away 0.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	FC Porto	Nice	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	2.25
Match goals	2.00	3.25	3.12
Over 1.5	75%	100%
Over 2.5	25%	100%	60%
Over 3.5	0%	25%
Both teams scored	50%	100%	52%
Clean sheets	25%	0%
Failed to score	25%	0%
Games	4	4

	FC Porto	Nice	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	1.40
Conceded per game	0.60	2.00
Match goals	2.20	3.40	3.12
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	80%	60%
Over 3.5	10%	40%
Both teams scored	40%	80%	52%
Clean sheets	50%	10%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FC Porto	Nice	League
Corners
Corners won	7.00	3.50
Corners conceded	2.50	4.75
Match total	9.50	8.25	9.03
Over 8.5	75% 3/4	50% 2/4
Over 9.5	50% 2/4	0% 0/4
Over 10.5	25% 1/4	0% 0/4
Cards
Cards	2.75	1.50
Opponent cards	3.00	2.75
Match total	5.75	4.25	4.23
Over 3.5	100% 4/4	75% 3/4
Over 4.5	75% 3/4	50% 2/4

	FC Porto	Nice	League
Corners
Corners won	6.20	3.50
Corners conceded	2.60	7.40
Match total	8.80	10.90	9.03
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.60	2.20
Opponent cards	3.10	2.40
Match total	5.70	4.60	4.23
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Matej Jug 22 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.86league 4.04

Red cards0.27league 0.17

Cards 5+68%league 43%

Fouls25.0league 24.8

Penalties0.32league 0.39

Home wins64%league 49%

FC Porto

No previous matches with this referee.

Nice

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.