FC Porto vs Santa Clara – 16 May 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 34 Sat, May 16 · 15:30 Estádio Do Dragão, Porto

FC Porto 1st · 85 pts · 33 played WWWWL

1–0Full time

Santa Clara 12th · 36 pts · 33 played LDWDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

FC Porto were clear favourites.

FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Santa Clara. FC Porto had 5.9 days of rest, Santa Clara 4.8 and had to travel 1,510 km.

Away travel1,510 kmRest days5.9 · 4.8Matches / 14d2 · 2

FC Porto65%

Draw22%

Santa Clara13%

Expected goals 1.88 – 0.71

FC Porto76%

Draw16%

Santa Clara8%

Expected goals 2.50 – 0.72

FC Porto65%

Draw22%

Santa Clara13%

Expected goals 1.88 – 0.71

FC Porto58%

Draw25%

Santa Clara17%

Expected goals 1.67 – 0.79

FC Porto65%

Draw22%

Santa Clara13%

Expected goals 1.95 – 0.74

Over 2.5 48% Both score 43% Likeliest score 1–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Porto)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalJoao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves

Cards per match 5.9
Penalties per match 0.55
Matches 20

Team strength

FC Porto

Santa Clara

77 L90 StrengthIn forecast 26

80 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

74 AttackIn forecast 29

80 DefenceIn forecast 53

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FC Porto

Attack—

Defense risk—

Santa Clara

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FC Porto

Santa Clara

1.97 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.97

0.55 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.21

1.81 xGVia Att/Def 1.00

0.60 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.02

+0.16 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

97% Scored inContext 64%

61% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.27 ShotsContext 11.21

5.18 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.35

36% On target shareContext 28%

9.55 Shots in the boxContext 6.30

66% Box shareContext 55%

14% ConversionContext 9%

2.19 OffsidesContext 2.12

9.00 Shots allowedContext 9.36

2.53 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.61

3.10 BlocksContext 2.54

2.27 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.61

82% Save rateContext 68%

55% PossessionIn forecast 48%

443 PassesContext 360

376 Accurate passesContext 289

85% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.76

13.70 FoulsContext 14.67

12.15 Fouls sufferedContext 14.18

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.73

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 33 and 33 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.75 xGVia Att/Def 0.98

0.99 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.90

-0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.42

90% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 50%

13.80 ShotsContext 10.50

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

30% On target shareContext 29%

8.90 Shots in the boxContext 5.90

63% Box shareContext 56%

12% ConversionContext 13%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.67

10.30 Shots allowedContext 9.90

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.56

2.44 BlocksContext 2.60

3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33

76% Save rateContext 66%

50% PossessionIn forecast 48%

404 PassesContext 332

336 Accurate passesContext 261

83% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.78

12.50 FoulsContext 14.80

12.90 Fouls sufferedContext 14.40

2.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FC Porto

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Santa Clara

Rest4.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,510 km3,074 km in 14d

Schedule load30%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FC Porto	Santa Clara
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 30
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 10 May	4.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 11 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,510 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	3,074 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	85.1	86.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

FC Porto Confirmed XI

4-3-3

99Diogo Costa(G)

74Francisco Moura 4J. Kiwior 5J. Bednarek 20Alberto Baio

86Rodrigo Mora 22A. Varela 8V. Froholdt

17Borja Sainz 27D. Gül 7William Gomes

Santa Clara Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

50João Afonso(G)

64Paulo Victor 4Pedro Pacheco 23Sidney Lima 2Diogo Calila

35Serginho 65José Tavares

10Gabriel Silva 77Gustavo Klismahn 49Welinton

26Fernando

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FC Porto Absences are shown before kick-off

Santa Clara Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

FC Porto+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Santa Clara+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

FC Porto · Home 2.63points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 13-3-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.38

Santa Clara · Away 0.81points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 2-7-7
Scored: 0.94
Conceded: 1.44

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	FC Porto	Santa Clara
AVS	L 1–3 AW 2–0 H	W 1–0 AW 2–0 H
Alverca	W 1–0 HW 3–0 A	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H
Estrela	W 2–1 AW 3–1 H	L 0–1 AD 0–0 H
Tondela	W 2–0 HW 2–0 A	D 2–2 AL 1–2 H
Estoril	W 3–1 AW 1–0 H	L 2–4 HW 1–0 A
Famalicao	D 2–2 HW 1–0 A	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A
SC Braga	W 2–1 AW 2–1 H	W 2–1 HL 0–1 A
Moreirense	W 3–0 HW 2–1 A	L 0–1 AL 0–1 H
Benfica	D 2–2 AD 0–0 H	L 1–2 HD 1–1 A
Arouca	W 3–1 HW 4–0 A	D 2–2 AD 0–0 H
Rio Ave	W 1–0 HW 3–0 A	L 0–2 HD 1–1 A
Nacional	W 1–0 AW 1–0 H	W 2–0 HD 3–3 A
Sporting CP	D 1–1 HW 2–1 A	L 2–4 AL 1–2 H
Casa Pia	L 1–2 AW 4–0 H	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H
GIL Vicente	W 3–0 HW 2–0 A	W 1–0 HL 0–1 A
Guimaraes	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H	W 2–0 HL 1–2 A
Points	82 of 96 · 2.56 per game	36 of 96 · 1.13 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

3 FC Porto wins2 draws0 Santa Clara wins

Goals per game1.40 – 0.60 Over 2.520% Both scored60% Clean sheets40% · 0%

4 Jan 2026Santa Clara0–1FC Porto
26 Jan 2025FC Porto1–1Santa Clara
16 Aug 2024Santa Clara0–2FC Porto
15 Apr 2023FC Porto2–1Santa Clara
29 Oct 2022Santa Clara1–1FC Porto

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	FC Porto	Santa Clara	Forecast
Scored per game	1.97	0.97
Conceded per game	0.55	1.21
Match goals	2.52	2.18	2.58
Over 1.5	73%	58%
Over 2.5	58%	36%	48%
Over 3.5	24%	15%
Both teams scored	39%	42%	43%
Clean sheets	61%	30%
Failed to score	3%	36%
Games	33	33

	FC Porto	Santa Clara	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	1.40
Conceded per game	1.00	1.10
Match goals	2.60	2.50	2.58
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	40%	48%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	40%	43%
Clean sheets	30%	50%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FC Porto	Santa Clara	League
Corners
Corners won	5.25	4.45
Corners conceded	3.32	4.62
Match total	8.57	9.07	9.37
Over 8.5	54% 15/28	62% 18/29
Over 9.5	36% 10/28	48% 14/29
Over 10.5	21% 6/28	31% 9/29
Cards
Cards	2.39	2.85
Opponent cards	3.00	2.94
Match total	5.39	5.79	5.07
Over 3.5	82% 27/33	82% 27/33
Over 4.5	61% 20/33	67% 22/33

	FC Porto	Santa Clara	League
Corners
Corners won	4.75	5.00
Corners conceded	4.50	4.40
Match total	9.25	9.40	9.37
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	3.00	2.20
Opponent cards	3.00	2.80
Match total	6.00	5.00	5.07
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves Portugal · 20 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.10league 4.80

Red cards0.80league 0.24

Cards 5+65%league 57%

Fouls24.8league 26.7

Penalties0.55league 0.43

Home wins25%league 41%

FC Porto2 with this referee

Record2-0-0 Cards · opp.1.5 · 3.5 Pens for · against3 · 0

W18 Jan 26A · Guimaraes1–02
W27 Oct 25A · Moreirense2–11

Santa Clara2 with this referee

Record0-0-2 Cards · opp.6.0 · 4.5 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds2

L8 Nov 25H · Sporting CP1–27
L4 Oct 25A · Guimaraes1–25

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.