FC St. Pauli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
FC Augsburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (45 vs 31). Absences weigh more on FC Augsburg. FC St. Pauli had 15.8 days of rest, FC Augsburg 14.9 and had to travel 579 km.
Away travel579 kmRest days15.8 · 14.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
FC St. Pauli36%
Draw27%
FC Augsburg37%
FC St. Pauli35%
Draw27%
FC Augsburg38%
FC St. Pauli35%
Draw27%
FC Augsburg38%
FC St. Pauli29%
Draw26%
FC Augsburg45%
FC St. Pauli36%
Draw27%
FC Augsburg37%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hamburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyHarm Osmers
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 84
Team strength
FC St. Pauli
FC Augsburg
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
45
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
20
AttackIn forecast
72
23
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Augsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC St. PauliFC Augsburg
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
0.76
0.95
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.84
+1.19
Goals minus xGContext
+1.74
100%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.50
ShotsContext
11.00
6.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
48%
On target shareContext
36%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
68%
Box shareContext
64%
19%
ConversionContext
23%
3.00
OffsidesContext
3.00
6.50
Shots allowedContext
17.00
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.50
—
BlocksContext
5.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
67%
Save rateContext
69%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
468
PassesContext
326
384
Accurate passesContext
251
82%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.99
16.00
FoulsContext
15.50
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
4.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.19
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
70%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.70
ShotsContext
12.50
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.22
39%
On target shareContext
30%
7.11
Shots in the boxContext
7.67
58%
Box shareContext
58%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
2.22
OffsidesContext
2.13
9.90
Shots allowedContext
15.30
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.10
3.17
BlocksContext
4.00
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
73%
Save rateContext
66%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
413
PassesContext
403
338
Accurate passesContext
328
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.91
11.20
FoulsContext
9.30
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC St. Pauli
Rest15.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC Augsburg
Rest14.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel579 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC St. Pauli |
FC Augsburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 29 Aug | 14.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 579 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.2 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC St. Pauli
Confirmed XI
22N. Vasilj(G)
25A. Dźwigała
8E. Smith
5H. Wahl
23Louis Oppie
16J. Fujita
6J. Sands
11Arkadiusz Pyrka
10D. Sinani
28M. Pereira Lage
27A. Hountondji
FC Augsburg
Confirmed XI
1F. Dahmen(G)
16C. Zesiger
6J. Gouweleeuw
5C. Matsima
8E. Rexhbeçaj
4H. Massengo
17K. Jakić
27M. Wolf
26E. Saad
32F. Rieder
36M. Kömür
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC St. Pauli
Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Augsburg
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC St. Pauli+1.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- FC Augsburg-1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
FC St. Pauli · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
FC Augsburg · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 FC St. Pauli wins1 draws1 FC Augsburg wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 1 Feb 2025FC St. Pauli1–1FC Augsburg
- 15 Sep 2024FC Augsburg3–1FC St. Pauli
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC St. Pauli | FC Augsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 4.50 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| FC St. Pauli | FC Augsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 4.50 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC St. Pauli | FC Augsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 6.50 | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 4.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.50 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 8.00 | 4.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| FC St. Pauli | FC Augsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 4.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.90 | 5.75 | |
| Match total | 7.40 | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.60 | 4.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Harm Osmers Germany · 84 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.93league 4.44
Red cards0.19league 0.40
Cards 5+38%league 52%
Fouls22.3league 22.9
Penalties0.29league 0.48
Home wins49%league 40%
FC St. Pauli1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.0.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L11 Jan 25H · Eintracht Frankfurt0–10
FC Augsburg7 with this referee
Record2-2-3
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L4 May 25H · Holstein Kiel1–30
- D2 Mar 25H · SC Freiburg0–01
- W3 Dec 23H · Eintracht Frankfurt2–11
- L1 Oct 23A · SC Freiburg0–22
- L4 Sep 22H · Hertha BSC0–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC St. Pauli2 games · scored 5 · conceded 3
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
76-90
FC Augsburg2 games · scored 5 · conceded 4
0-15
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
FC St. Pauli10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
5
61-75
6
1
76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 11 · conceded 20
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
6
46-60
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
