Bundesliga Gameweek 3 Sat, Sep 13 2025 · 14:30 MEWA ARENA, Mainz
FSV Mainz 05
0–1 Full time · HT 0–1 xG 0.90 – 1.79
RB Leipzig
  • 40’ S. Bakayoko
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

Bakayoko goal decides it for RB Leipzig

FSV Mainz 05 entered as narrow favourites, but RB Leipzig won 1–0 through a Bakayoko goal. RB Leipzig finished with the higher xG (1.79 vs 0.90). On the chances created, FSV Mainz 05 deserved more: 0.8 expected points against the 0 points they took.

FSV Mainz 0542%
Draw26%
RB Leipzig ✓33%

Model vs reality

FSV Mainz 05 goals
0
Model 1.57 · xG 0.90
RB Leipzig goals
1
Model 1.37 · xG 1.79
Total goals
1
Model 2.93 · xG 2.69
Score 0–1
7%
Most likely 1–1 (12%)
Over 2.5
No
Model 56%
Both scored
No
Model 60%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchV. OrbánRB Leipzig
8.3
  • RefereeSven Jablonski
  • VenueMEWA ARENA
  • Table before kick-offFSV Mainz 05 13th · RB Leipzig 12th

Timeline

  1. S. BellYellow card · Foul
    7’
  2. ⇄ A. Hanche-OlsenFor S. Bell
    15’
  3. ⇄ E. BanzuziFor X. Schlager
    32’
  4. S. Bakayoko 0–1Assist E. Banzuzi
    40’
  5. Half time · 0–1
  6. ⇄ A. SiebFor W. Bøving
    65’
  7. ⇄ C. HarderFor S. Bakayoko
    66’
  8. ⇄ Y. DiomandeFor A. Nusa
    66’
  9. ⇄ S. WidmerFor A. Caci
    75’
  10. ⇄ Sota KawasakiFor A. Nordin
    75’
  11. ⇄ N. VeratschnigFor P. Mwene
    75’
  12. ⇄ F. OuédraogoFor Rômulo
    90’
  13. ⇄ K. KamplFor C. Baumgartner
    90’
  14. Full time · 0–1

Team stats

FSV Mainz 0513 shots · 10 in box, 3 outside
RB Leipzig19 shots · 11 in box, 8 outside
FSV Mainz 05RB Leipzig
56% Possession 44%
0.90 Expected goals (xG) 1.79
0.79 Expected points (xPts) 1.98
13 Shots 19
2 Shots on target 3
7 Shots off target 10
4 Blocked shots 6
10 Shots inside the box 11
3 Shots outside the box 8
451 Passes 361
74% Pass accuracy 72%
3 Corners 5
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
12 Fouls 11
4 Offsides 1
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
6.81 Team rating 7.27

Line-ups

FSV Mainz 05 3-4-2-1

276.2 R. Zentner(G)
318.2 D. Kohr 166.5 S. Bell ↓15’ 216.6 D. da Costa
26.5 P. Mwene ↓75’ 107.2 N. Amiri 67.3 K. Sano 197.0 A. Caci ↓75’
146.2 W. Bøving ↓65’ 97.2 A. Nordin ↓75’
445.9 N. Weiper
  • 27R. Zentner (G)6.2
  • 31D. Kohr8.2
  • 16S. Bell↓15’6.5
  • 21D. da Costa6.6
  • 2P. Mwene↓75’6.5
  • 10N. Amiri7.2
  • 6K. Sano7.3
  • 19A. Caci↓75’7.0
  • 14W. Bøving↓65’6.2
  • 9A. Nordin↓75’7.2
  • 44N. Weiper5.9

Substitutes used

  • 30S. Widmer↑75’6.7
  • 24Sota Kawasaki↑75’6.7
  • 22N. Veratschnig↑75’7.2
  • 11A. Sieb↑65’6.5
  • 25A. Hanche-Olsen↑15’6.6

Unused: L. Rieß, B. Bobzien, L. Maloney, M. Leitsch

RB Leipzig 4-2-3-1

17.5 P. Gulácsi(G)
227.3 D. Raum 237.2 C. Lukeba 48.3★ V. Orbán 177.0 R. Baku
247.2 X. Schlager ↓32’ 137.2 N. Seiwald
76.9 A. Nusa ↓66’ 147.5 C. Baumgartner ↓90’ 97.7 S. Bakayoko ↓66’
406.3 Rômulo ↓90’
  • 1P. Gulácsi (G)7.5
  • 22D. Raum7.3
  • 23C. Lukeba7.2
  • 4V. Orbán ★8.3
  • 17R. Baku7.0
  • 24X. Schlager↓32’7.2
  • 13N. Seiwald7.2
  • 7A. Nusa↓66’6.9
  • 14C. Baumgartner↓90’7.5
  • 9S. Bakayoko↓66’7.7
  • 40Rômulo↓90’6.3

Substitutes used

  • 20F. Ouédraogo↑90’
  • 44K. Kampl↑90’
  • 11C. Harder↑66’6.5
  • 49Y. Diomande↑66’6.5
  • 6E. BanzuziA↑32’7.7

Unused: M. Finkgräfe, K. Nedeljković, E. Bitshiabu, M. Vandevoordt

Player stats

Top rated
V. OrbánRB Leipzig8.3
2nd
D. KohrFSV Mainz 058.2
3rd
S. BakayokoRB Leipzig7.7

FSV Mainz 05

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
R. Zentner G 90 0 0 2 sv 0 51% 39 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.2
D. Kohr M 90 0 0 1 (0) 1 84% 55 3 2 1/1 0/7 8.2
S. Bell D 15 0 0 0 (0) 0 63% 8 0 0 0/0 3/0 6.5
D. da Costa D 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 76% 54 3 3 0/0 1/1 6.6
P. Mwene D 75 0 0 1 (0) 2 68% 28 0 0 0/0 1/0 6.5
N. Amiri M 90 0 0 2 (0) 0 85% 48 2 0 3/5 3/0 7.2
K. Sano M 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 82% 45 2 3 0/0 0/0 7.3
A. Caci D 75 0 0 0 (0) 2 75% 44 1 2 2/2 1/1 7.0
W. Bøving M 65 0 0 1 (0) 0 61% 18 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.2
A. Nordin F 75 0 0 3 (1) 1 82% 28 0 0 0/0 1/0 7.2
N. Weiper F 90 0 0 1 (1) 0 64% 22 0 0 1/2 2/0 5.9
S. Widmer D 15 0 0 0 (0) 0 70% 10 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.7
Sota Kawasaki M 15 0 0 0 (0) 0 60% 5 1 0 0/1 0/1 6.7
N. Veratschnig D 15 0 0 0 (0) 0 57% 7 1 0 0/0 0/0 7.2
A. Sieb M 25 0 0 0 (0) 1 57% 7 0 0 1/1 0/0 6.5
A. Hanche-Olsen D 75 0 0 0 (0) 0 82% 33 1 3 0/0 0/0 6.6

RB Leipzig

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
P. Gulácsi G 90 0 0 2 sv 0 63% 35 0 0 0/0 0/0 7.5
D. Raum D 90 0 0 1 (0) 4 68% 41 1 0 0/0 1/0 7.3
C. Lukeba D 90 0 0 1 (1) 1 76% 37 3 1 1/1 0/0 7.2
V. Orbán D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 89% 27 1 1 1/1 0/1 8.3
R. Baku M 90 0 0 1 (0) 2 59% 46 2 3 1/1 1/2 7.0
X. Schlager M 32 0 0 0 (0) 0 87% 15 1 0 1/1 0/0 7.2
N. Seiwald M 90 0 0 1 (0) 0 75% 24 1 6 1/1 0/0 7.2
A. Nusa M 66 0 0 2 (1) 4 100% 11 1 0 2/6 0/2 6.9
C. Baumgartner M 90 0 0 1 (0) 1 74% 39 3 1 0/0 3/5 7.5
S. Bakayoko F 66 1 0 2 (1) 0 82% 11 0 1 1/1 3/0 7.7
Rômulo F 90 0 0 2 (0) 0 64% 25 1 0 1/1 0/1 6.3
F. Ouédraogo M 1 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 1 0 1 0/0 0/0 —
K. Kampl M 1 0 0 0 (0) 0 — 0 0 0 0/0 0/0 —
C. Harder F 24 0 0 2 (0) 0 57% 7 0 0 0/1 2/0 6.5
Y. Diomande F 24 0 0 0 (0) 0 67% 15 0 1 0/1 1/0 6.5
E. Banzuzi M 58 0 1 0 (0) 2 70% 27 2 1 0/0 0/1 7.7

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.