Bundesliga Gameweek 16 Tue, Jan 27 2026 · 19:30 Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg
FC St. Pauli
1–1 Full time · HT 0–0 xG 1.45 – 1.09
RB Leipzig
  • M. Kaars 90+3’ (P)
  • 66’ Y. Diomande
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

FC St. Pauli snatch a late draw

RB Leipzig entered as favourites and led 1–0 after 66 minutes through a Diomande goal. But Kaars scored to rescue a draw for FC St. Pauli. FC St. Pauli finished with the higher xG (1.45 vs 1.09).

FC St. Pauli18%
Draw ✓22%
RB Leipzig60%

Model vs reality

FC St. Pauli goals
1
Model 1.07 · xG 1.45
RB Leipzig goals
1
Model 2.07 · xG 1.09
Total goals
2
Model 3.14 · xG 2.54
Score 1–1
10%
Most likely 1–1 (10%)
Over 2.5
No
Model 61%
Both scored
Yes
Model 58%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchY. DiomandeRB Leipzig · 1 goal
8.0
  • RefereeFlorian Exner
  • CoachesA. Blessin · —
  • VenueMillerntor-Stadion
  • Table before kick-offFC St. Pauli 17th · RB Leipzig 5th

Timeline

  1. Half time · 0–0
  2. C. BaumgartnerYellow card
    49’
  3. ⇄ C. HarderFor Rômulo
    64’
  4. Y. Diomande 0–1
    66’
  5. ⇄ M. KaarsFor R. Jones
    67’
  6. ⇄ M. Pereira LageFor D. Sinani
    76’
  7. ⇄ J. IrvineFor J. Sands
    76’
  8. ⇄ M. RasmussenFor J. Fujita
    76’
  9. ⇄ Tidiam GomisFor A. Nusa
    85’
  10. ⇄ E. BanzuziFor C. Baumgartner
    85’
  11. ⇄ A. CeesayFor E. Saliakas
    88’
  12. M. Kaars (pen) 1–1
    90+3’
  13. ⇄ B. HenrichsFor Y. Diomande
    90+4’
  14. Full time · 1–1

Team stats

FC St. Pauli7 shots · 3 in box, 4 outside
RB Leipzig12 shots · 9 in box, 3 outside
FC St. PauliRB Leipzig
46% Possession 54%
1.45 Expected goals (xG) 1.09
1.62 Expected points (xPts) 1.11
7 Shots 12
2 Shots on target 5
3 Shots off target 5
2 Blocked shots 2
3 Shots inside the box 9
4 Shots outside the box 3
505 Passes 597
78% Pass accuracy 85%
4 Corners 3
5 Goalkeeper saves 1
6 Fouls 8
5 Offsides 3
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
6.87 Team rating 6.96

Line-ups

FC St. Pauli 3-4-2-1

227.3 N. Vasilj(G)
37.3 K. Mets 57.2 H. Wahl 156.9 Tomoya Ando
116.9 Arkadiusz Pyrka 86.7 E. Smith 66.7 J. Sands ↓76’ 27.0 E. Saliakas ↓88’
166.7 J. Fujita ↓76’ 106.6 D. Sinani ↓76’
266.2 R. Jones ↓67’
  • 22N. Vasilj (G)7.3
  • 3K. Mets7.3
  • 5H. Wahl7.2
  • 15Tomoya Ando6.9
  • 11Arkadiusz Pyrka6.9
  • 8E. Smith6.7
  • 6J. Sands↓76’6.7
  • 2E. Saliakas↓88’7.0
  • 16J. Fujita↓76’6.7
  • 10D. Sinani↓76’6.6
  • 26R. Jones↓67’6.2

Substitutes used

  • 19M. Kaars↑67’6.7
  • 20M. Rasmussen↑76’6.3
  • 7J. Irvine↑76’6.5
  • 28M. Pereira Lage↑76’6.7
  • 9A. Ceesay↑88’

Unused: B. Voll, Jannik Thomas Robatsch, L. Ritzka, Louis Oppie

Coach: A. Blessin

RB Leipzig 4-3-3

17.3 P. Gulácsi(G)
226.2 D. Raum 57.5 E. Bitshiabu 47.6 V. Orbán 177.3 R. Baku
146.3 C. Baumgartner ↓85’ 136.7 N. Seiwald 246.9 X. Schlager
76.9 A. Nusa ↓85’ 405.5 Rômulo ↓64’ 498.0★ Y. Diomande ↓90’
  • 1P. Gulácsi (G)7.3
  • 22D. Raum6.2
  • 5E. Bitshiabu7.5
  • 4V. Orbán7.6
  • 17R. Baku7.3
  • 14C. Baumgartner↓85’6.3
  • 13N. Seiwald6.7
  • 24X. Schlager6.9
  • 7A. Nusa↓85’6.9
  • 40Rômulo↓64’5.5
  • 49Y. Diomande ★↓90’8.0

Substitutes used

  • 11C. Harder↑64’6.5
  • 39B. Henrichs↑90’
  • 6E. Banzuzi↑85’
  • 27Tidiam Gomis↑85’

Unused: M. Vandevoordt, L. Klostermann, K. Nedeljković, M. Finkgräfe, A. Maksimović

Player stats

Top rated
Y. DiomandeRB Leipzig8.0
2nd
V. OrbánRB Leipzig7.6
3rd
E. BitshiabuRB Leipzig7.5

FC St. Pauli

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
N. Vasilj G 90 0 0 5 sv 0 83% 47 0 0 0/0 0/1 7.3
K. Mets D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 87% 62 5 2 1/1 1/0 7.3
H. Wahl D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 88% 49 3 5 0/0 0/0 7.2
Tomoya Ando 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 76% 58 4 1 0/1 0/0 6.9
Arkadiusz Pyrka M 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 76% 34 2 2 0/1 1/1 6.9
E. Smith M 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 83% 47 1 3 0/2 2/0 6.7
J. Sands M 76 0 0 0 (0) 1 74% 38 2 1 0/0 0/2 6.7
E. Saliakas D 88 0 0 0 (0) 0 81% 36 2 2 2/2 0/0 7.0
J. Fujita M 76 0 0 2 (0) 1 63% 30 2 0 1/2 0/0 6.7
D. Sinani M 76 0 0 0 (0) 1 69% 42 3 1 0/1 1/1 6.6
R. Jones F 67 0 0 1 (0) 1 40% 10 1 0 1/1 1/1 6.2
M. Kaars F 23 1 0 1 (1) 0 78% 9 0 0 0/0 0/1 6.7
M. Rasmussen M 14 0 0 0 (0) 0 79% 14 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
J. Irvine M 14 0 0 0 (0) 0 76% 17 0 1 0/1 0/0 6.5
M. Pereira Lage M 14 0 0 0 (0) 0 67% 6 0 0 1/1 0/1 6.7
A. Ceesay F 2 0 0 0 (0) 0 83% 6 0 0 0/0 0/0 —

RB Leipzig

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
P. Gulácsi G 90 0 0 1 sv 0 83% 42 0 0 0/0 0/0 7.3
D. Raum D 90 0 0 1 (0) 0 78% 72 1 2 0/1 1/0 6.2
E. Bitshiabu D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 93% 101 1 1 0/0 1/0 7.5
V. Orbán D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 87% 111 2 2 1/2 0/1 7.6
R. Baku M 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 84% 77 1 0 0/0 1/1 7.3
C. Baumgartner M 85 0 0 0 (0) 2 81% 37 3 0 1/2 2/1 6.3
N. Seiwald M 90 0 0 1 (0) 0 86% 43 0 3 0/0 2/0 6.7
X. Schlager M 90 0 0 1 (0) 2 80% 30 0 0 0/1 0/2 6.9
A. Nusa M 85 0 0 3 (3) 0 75% 24 1 0 4/6 0/0 6.9
Rômulo F 64 0 0 2 (0) 1 71% 14 0 0 0/1 0/1 5.5
Y. Diomande F 90 1 0 1 (1) 4 88% 33 2 2 4/8 0/0 8.0
C. Harder F 26 0 0 0 (0) 0 88% 8 0 0 0/1 0/0 6.5
B. Henrichs D 1 0 0 0 (0) 0 — 0 0 0 0/0 0/0 —
E. Banzuzi M 5 0 0 0 (0) 1 100% 3 0 0 0/0 0/0 —
Tidiam Gomis F 5 0 0 1 (1) 0 100% 2 0 0 1/1 0/0 —

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.