FC St. Pauli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
RB Leipzig were slight favourites.
RB Leipzig were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 25). FC St. Pauli had 4 days of rest, RB Leipzig 3.2 and had to travel 294 km.
Away travel294 kmRest days4 · 3.2Matches / 14d3 · 3
FC St. Pauli18%
Draw22%
RB Leipzig60%
FC St. Pauli19%
Draw24%
RB Leipzig57%
FC St. Pauli18%
Draw22%
RB Leipzig60%
FC St. Pauli14%
Draw19%
RB Leipzig67%
FC St. Pauli19%
Draw23%
RB Leipzig58%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Hamburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyFlorian Exner
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 21
Team strength
FC St. Pauli
RB Leipzig
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
68
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
20
AttackIn forecast
76
23
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRB Leipzig
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC St. PauliRB Leipzig
0.89
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.72
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
0.73
xGVia Att/Def
1.86
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
56%
Scored inContext
89%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
9.83
ShotsContext
15.67
3.53
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.67
34%
On target shareContext
36%
5.56
Shots in the boxContext
10.78
55%
Box shareContext
68%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
2.46
OffsidesContext
2.18
11.11
Shots allowedContext
12.22
4.94
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.94
3.57
BlocksContext
3.94
3.35
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
66%
Save rateContext
69%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
436
PassesContext
482
345
Accurate passesContext
410
79%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.73
Team ratingContext
7.02
10.33
FoulsContext
9.22
10.06
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.39
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.54
xGVia Att/Def
1.91
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
60%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
8.60
ShotsContext
16.00
2.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.40
30%
On target shareContext
40%
4.90
Shots in the boxContext
11.30
56%
Box shareContext
71%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.80
Shots allowedContext
10.70
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.75
BlocksContext
3.11
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
64%
Save rateContext
69%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
396
PassesContext
504
306
Accurate passesContext
432
77%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.99
9.30
FoulsContext
8.00
8.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC St. Pauli
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km839 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
RB Leipzig
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel294 km671 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC St. Pauli |
RB Leipzig |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Moderate · 23 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4Bundesliga 2025-2026, 23 Jan | 3.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 24 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 294 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 839 km | 671 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 3 | 1 / 3 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.8 | 3.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC St. Pauli
Confirmed XI
22N. Vasilj(G)
3K. Mets
5H. Wahl
15Tomoya Ando
11Arkadiusz Pyrka
8E. Smith
6J. Sands
2E. Saliakas
16J. Fujita
10D. Sinani
26R. Jones
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
1P. Gulácsi(G)
22D. Raum
5E. Bitshiabu
4V. Orbán
17R. Baku
14C. Baumgartner
13N. Seiwald
24X. Schlager
7A. Nusa
40Rômulo
49Y. Diomande
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC St. Pauli
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
RB Leipzig
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC St. Pauli+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- RB Leipzig-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
FC St. Pauli · Home
1.00points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.88
RB Leipzig · Away
1.56points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-3
- Scored
- 1.56
- Conceded
- 1.44
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | FC St. Pauli | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 2–3 AD 3–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–1 H | W 3–0 AW 2–0 H |
| 1.FC Köln | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Bayern München | L 1–3 A | L 1–5 HL 0–6 A |
| Union Berlin | L 0–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| SC Freiburg | L 1–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 0–4 H | D 0–0 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 0–2 A | W 6–0 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 0–3 H | L 1–3 A |
| Werder Bremen | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 1–2 H | L 1–3 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| FC Augsburg | W 2–1 H | W 6–0 A |
| Points | 13 of 54 · 0.72 per game | 35 of 54 · 1.94 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 FC St. Pauli wins1 draws1 RB Leipzig wins
Goals per game0.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets50% · 100%
- 9 Feb 2025RB Leipzig2–0FC St. Pauli
- 22 Sep 2024FC St. Pauli0–0RB Leipzig
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC St. Pauli | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.89 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.72 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.61 | 3.33 | 3.14 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 61% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 44% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 44% | 11% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| FC St. Pauli | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.50 | 3.14 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC St. Pauli | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.06 | 5.81 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.65 | 4.94 | |
| Match total | 9.71 | 10.75 | 9.66 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 12/17 | 75% 12/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 8/17 | 69% 11/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 41% 7/17 | 38% 6/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.56 | 1.39 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.94 | 1.94 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.33 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 8/18 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 28% 5/18 | 17% 3/18 | |
| FC St. Pauli | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.80 | 5.38 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 11.38 | 9.66 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 100% 8/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 2.90 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Florian Exner Germany · 21 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.71league 3.73
Red cards0.24league 0.18
Cards 5+48%league 38%
Fouls22.3league 21.0
Penalties0.29league 0.33
Home wins38%league 45%
FC St. Pauli1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.6.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds2
- L3 May 25H · VfB Stuttgart0–16
RB Leipzig1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W11 Apr 25A · VfL Wolfsburg3–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC St. Pauli18 games · scored 16 · conceded 31
1
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
8
31-45
3
8
46-60
3
4
61-75
4
6
76-90
RB Leipzig18 games · scored 36 · conceded 24
6
0-15
3
4
16-30
8
5
31-45
9
3
46-60
7
5
61-75
3
7
76-90
FC St. Pauli10 games · scored 8 · conceded 17
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 20 · conceded 15
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
6
2
46-60
6
3
61-75
2
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
