FC Volendam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FC Volendam were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Excelsior. FC Volendam had 6.9 days of rest, Excelsior 6.2 and had to travel 75 km.
Away travel75 kmRest days6.9 · 6.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
FC Volendam43%
Draw27%
Excelsior31%
FC Volendam42%
Draw27%
Excelsior31%
FC Volendam42%
Draw27%
Excelsior31%
FC Volendam35%
Draw27%
Excelsior37%
FC Volendam43%
Draw27%
Excelsior30%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Volendam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMarc Nagtegaal
- Cards per match 2.4
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 34
Team strength
FC Volendam
Excelsior
14
L90 StrengthIn forecast
15
14
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
14
AttackIn forecast
21
19
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisExcelsior
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC VolendamExcelsior
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
0.70
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.14
+0.50
Goals minus xGContext
-0.48
80%
Scored inContext
60%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.80
ShotsContext
11.20
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
33%
On target shareContext
36%
5.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
52%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
5%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.00
17.40
Shots allowedContext
18.80
7.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
8.60
4.20
BlocksContext
5.60
5.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.80
77%
Save rateContext
67%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
360
PassesContext
358
284
Accurate passesContext
272
79%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.71
10.20
FoulsContext
14.00
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
0.70
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.14
+0.40
Goals minus xGContext
-0.28
80%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.30
ShotsContext
10.70
3.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
33%
On target shareContext
39%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.56
63%
Box shareContext
63%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
1.83
OffsidesContext
1.33
20.20
Shots allowedContext
16.10
7.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.50
5.20
BlocksContext
4.60
6.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.33
74%
Save rateContext
63%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
338
PassesContext
385
261
Accurate passesContext
291
77%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.76
9.40
FoulsContext
11.00
9.10
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Volendam
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km158 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Excelsior
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel75 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Volendam |
Excelsior |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 13 Sep | 6.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 14 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 75 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 158 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Volendam
Confirmed XI
1K. van Oevelen(G)
32Y. Leliendal
20N. Verschuren
4X. Mbuyamba
2D. Payne
18N. Bukala
5P. Ugwu
17J. Ideho
40R. van Cruijsen
10B. Kuwas
9H. Veerman
Excelsior
Confirmed XI
1S. van Gassel(G)
15Simon Janssen
3R. Meissen
4C. Widell
2Ilias Bronkhorst
6A. Carlén
10N. Naujoks
11G. de Regt
23I. Yegoian
30D. Sanches Fernandes
9S. Włodarczyk
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Volendam
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Excelsior
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Volendam+1.0 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Excelsior-0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Volendam · Home
1.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Excelsior · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 4.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 FC Volendam wins0 draws0 Excelsior wins
Goals per game3.00 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 29 Oct 2023FC Volendam3–1Excelsior
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Volendam | Excelsior | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 2.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| FC Volendam | Excelsior | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 2.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Volendam | Excelsior | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.20 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 9.20 | 9.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 4/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 2.80 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 2/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 1/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| FC Volendam | Excelsior | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 10.90 | 10.30 | 9.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 2.70 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marc Nagtegaal Netherlands · 34 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.35league 3.36
Red cards0.09league 0.20
Cards 5+18%league 36%
Fouls18.9league 22.6
Penalties0.15league 0.16
Home wins56%league 47%
FC Volendam1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D9 Aug 25A · Heerenveen1–11
Excelsior3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.0.3 · 0.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L25 Feb 24H · Vitesse1–20
- L13 Jan 24A · PSV Eindhoven1–30
- D12 Nov 23A · Utrecht2–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Volendam5 games · scored 6 · conceded 9
1
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
76-90
Excelsior5 games · scored 3 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
FC Volendam10 games · scored 11 · conceded 21
5
5
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
Excelsior10 games · scored 8 · conceded 24
2
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
5
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
