FC Volendam vs Groningen – 1 Mar 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Mar 1 · 13:30 Kras Stadion, Volendam

FC Volendam 15th · 24 pts · 24 played LDWWL

First leg0–3 3–2Full time

Groningen 11th · 31 pts · 24 played LLLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

FC Volendam were slight favourites.

Groningen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (22 vs 15). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for FC Volendam. FC Volendam had 7.8 days of rest, Groningen 7.1 and had to travel 129 km.

Away travel129 kmRest days7.8 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

FC Volendam41%

Draw27%

Groningen32%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.24

FC Volendam37%

Draw27%

Groningen36%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.33

FC Volendam41%

Draw27%

Groningen32%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.24

FC Volendam34%

Draw27%

Groningen39%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.39

FC Volendam41%

Draw28%

Groningen31%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.20

Over 2.5 50% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Volendam)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsRichard Martens

Cards per match 3.1
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 14

Team strength

FC Volendam

Groningen

15 L90 StrengthIn forecast 22

14 Current StrengthIn forecast 30

14 AttackIn forecast 41

19 DefenceIn forecast 21

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FC Volendam

Attack—

Defense risk—

Groningen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FC Volendam

Groningen

1.08 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29

1.63 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.33

0.95 xGVia Att/Def 1.48

1.64 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.21

+0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.19

67% Scored inContext 75%

4% Clean sheetsContext 29%

10.29 ShotsContext 14.54

3.46 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.74

34% On target shareContext 38%

6.25 Shots in the boxContext 8.35

60% Box shareContext 56%

11% ConversionContext 9%

1.71 OffsidesContext 1.95

18.00 Shots allowedContext 10.75

6.04 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.22

5.42 BlocksContext 2.90

4.58 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.95

76% Save rateContext 66%

44% PossessionIn forecast 51%

358 PassesContext 417

287 Accurate passesContext 337

80% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.81

9.46 FoulsContext 10.63

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.04

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.67

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 24 and 24 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

0.86 xGVia Att/Def 1.51

1.74 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.28

+0.04 Goals minus xGContext -0.31

50% Scored inContext 80%

0% Clean sheetsContext 40%

9.80 ShotsContext 14.30

3.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40

34% On target shareContext 31%

6.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.56

60% Box shareContext 55%

9% ConversionContext 8%

2.22 OffsidesContext 2.00

18.70 Shots allowedContext 10.30

6.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

5.60 BlocksContext 3.33

5.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

79% Save rateContext 71%

43% PossessionIn forecast 53%

336 PassesContext 436

263 Accurate passesContext 357

78% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.81

10.40 FoulsContext 9.70

11.90 Fouls sufferedContext 9.00

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FC Volendam

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km206 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Groningen

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel129 km227 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FC Volendam	Groningen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 21 Feb	7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 22 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	129 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	206 km	227 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 4	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.2	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FC Volendam Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1K. van Oevelen(G)

32Y. Leliendal 20N. Verschuren 3M. Amevor 5P. Ugwu

7O. Kökçü 23D. Kwakman 40R. van Cruijsen

29B. Pauwels 10B. Kuwas 77B. Ould-Chikh

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Groningen Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1E. Vaessen(G)

43M. Peersman 4D. Janse 3T. Blokzijl 16T. Mercera

17D. van der Werff 6S. Resink 18T. Land 10Y. Taha

26T. van Bergen 9B. Willumsson

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FC Volendam Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Groningen Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

FC Volendam-0.2 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Groningen+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

FC Volendam · Home 1.58points per game · 12 home games

W-D-L: 5-4-3
Scored: 1.58
Conceded: 1.25

Groningen · Away 1.33points per game · 12 away games

W-D-L: 5-1-6
Scored: 1.17
Conceded: 1.58

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	FC Volendam	Groningen
NAC Breda	L 0–1 AW 2–1 H	D 0–0 HW 2–1 A
PSV Eindhoven	W 2–1 HL 0–3 A	L 1–2 HL 2–4 A
PEC Zwolle	W 2–1 AW 2–1 H	D 2–2 H
GO Ahead Eagles	D 1–1 HL 0–3 A	D 1–1 A
Ajax	L 0–2 AD 1–1 H	L 0–2 A
Utrecht	W 2–1 HL 1–3 A	L 1–2 HW 1–0 A
AZ Alkmaar	L 0–1 AD 2–2 H	L 1–4 A
Sparta Rotterdam	L 0–1 H	L 0–2 AL 0–2 H
NEC Nijmegen	L 2–3 H	L 0–2 A
Twente	D 1–1 H	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H
Feyenoord	L 1–3 A	L 0–1 H
Heracles	W 3–0 H	W 4–0 H
Fortuna Sittard	L 0–1 A	L 1–2 HW 2–1 A
Excelsior	L 1–2 H	W 2–0 A
Telstar	D 2–2 A	W 2–0 H
Heerenveen	D 1–1 A	W 2–0 AW 2–1 H
Points	24 of 69 · 1.04 per game	28 of 69 · 1.22 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 FC Volendam wins0 draws1 Groningen wins

Goals per game0.00 – 3.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored0% Clean sheets0% · 100%

13 Dec 2025Groningen3–0FC Volendam

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	FC Volendam	Groningen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.08	1.29
Conceded per game	1.63	1.33
Match goals	2.71	2.63	2.67
Over 1.5	83%	88%
Over 2.5	63%	50%	50%
Over 3.5	21%	17%
Both teams scored	63%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	4%	29%
Failed to score	33%	25%
Games	24	24

	FC Volendam	Groningen	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	1.20
Conceded per game	1.50	1.10
Match goals	2.40	2.30	2.67
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	50%
Over 3.5	10%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	0%	40%
Failed to score	50%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FC Volendam	Groningen	League
Corners
Corners won	3.82	5.96
Corners conceded	6.68	4.52
Match total	10.50	10.48	10.30
Over 8.5	73% 16/22	70% 16/23
Over 9.5	59% 13/22	43% 10/23
Over 10.5	50% 11/22	35% 8/23
Cards
Cards	1.54	1.75
Opponent cards	2.04	1.67
Match total	3.58	3.42	3.50
Over 3.5	46% 11/24	46% 11/24
Over 4.5	33% 8/24	25% 6/24

	FC Volendam	Groningen	League
Corners
Corners won	3.56	7.40
Corners conceded	7.89	4.10
Match total	11.45	11.50	10.30
Over 8.5	89% 8/9	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.60
Opponent cards	2.10	1.50
Match total	4.30	3.10	3.50
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Richard Martens Netherlands · 14 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.00league 3.30

Red cards0.14league 0.19

Cards 5+21%league 30%

Fouls20.7league 21.6

Penalties0.21league 0.24

Home wins43%league 44%

FC Volendam3 with this referee

Record1-0-2 Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

W8 Nov 25H · NAC Breda2–12
L12 Nov 23H · Sparta Rotterdam1–40
L3 Sep 23H · Twente0–22

Groningen

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.