FC Volendam
Attack—
Defense risk—
FC Volendam
16th · 31 pts · 31 played
LLDLW
First leg1–1
0–2Full time
Heerenveen
8th · 47 pts · 31 played
WDWLW
Our take
Heerenveen were slight favourites.
Heerenveen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (31 vs 15). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for FC Volendam. FC Volendam had 6.9 days of rest, Heerenveen 7.7 and had to travel 77 km.
Away travel77 kmRest days6.9 · 7.7Matches / 14d1 · 1
FC Volendam33%
Draw24%
Heerenveen42%
FC Volendam31%
Draw27%
Heerenveen42%
FC Volendam33%
Draw24%
Heerenveen42%
FC Volendam26%
Draw23%
Heerenveen51%
FC Volendam33%
Draw25%
Heerenveen42%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 64%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Volendam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSerdar Gozubuyuk
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 102
Team strength
FC VolendamHeerenveen
15
L90 StrengthIn forecast
31
14
Current StrengthIn forecast
31
14
AttackIn forecast
36
19
DefenceIn forecast
40
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHeerenveen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC VolendamHeerenveen
1.06
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.77
1.61
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.65
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.63
1.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
65%
Scored inContext
81%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.52
ShotsContext
14.48
3.65
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
35%
On target shareContext
37%
6.48
Shots in the boxContext
9.63
61%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
1.68
OffsidesContext
1.76
18.39
Shots allowedContext
12.61
6.26
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.13
5.58
BlocksContext
3.20
4.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.48
75%
Save rateContext
68%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
359
PassesContext
433
285
Accurate passesContext
348
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.83
9.23
FoulsContext
10.68
11.77
Fouls sufferedContext
9.45
1.42
Yellow cardsContext
1.42
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.68
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.64
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.62
60%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.40
ShotsContext
13.50
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
37%
On target shareContext
44%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
9.60
64%
Box shareContext
72%
10%
ConversionContext
17%
1.71
OffsidesContext
1.14
18.80
Shots allowedContext
16.40
6.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.20
5.50
BlocksContext
4.11
4.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.70
75%
Save rateContext
76%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
347
PassesContext
423
264
Accurate passesContext
341
76%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.92
9.00
FoulsContext
9.40
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
7.10
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Volendam
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km218 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Heerenveen
Rest7.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel77 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Volendam |
Heerenveen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 26 Apr | 7.7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 25 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 77 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 218 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Volendam
Confirmed XI
1K. van Oevelen(G)
32Y. Leliendal
20N. Verschuren
3M. Amevor
5P. Ugwu
18N. Bukala
4J. Bacuna
99A. Descotte
7O. Kökçü
77B. Ould-Chikh
9H. Veerman
Heerenveen
Confirmed XI
22B. Klaverboer(G)
19V. Zagaritis
3M. Willemsen
4S. Kersten
45O. Braude
6J. van Overeem
16M. Linday
11L. Oyen
10R. Meerveld
20J. Trenskow
9D. Vente
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Volendam
Absences are shown before kick-off
Heerenveen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Volendam+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Heerenveen+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Volendam · Home
1.53points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-5-4
- Scored
- 1.53
- Conceded
- 1.27
Heerenveen · Away
1.20points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-7
- Scored
- 1.47
- Conceded
- 1.80
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | FC Volendam | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| Heracles | W 2–0 AW 3–0 H | W 4–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Twente | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | L 0–5 AL 1–2 H |
| Feyenoord | D 0–0 HL 1–3 A | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H | W 2–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 0–3 AL 2–3 H | D 2–2 AW 3–2 H |
| Groningen | W 3–2 HL 0–3 A | L 0–2 HL 1–2 A |
| NAC Breda | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H | D 3–3 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | W 2–1 HL 0–3 A | L 1–3 AL 0–2 H |
| PEC Zwolle | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H | W 4–2 HL 1–2 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A | W 3–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Ajax | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Utrecht | W 2–1 HL 1–3 A | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H | L 0–3 AW 3–1 H |
| Excelsior | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Telstar | D 2–2 A | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A |
| Points | 30 of 90 · 1.00 per game | 46 of 90 · 1.53 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 FC Volendam wins1 draws0 Heerenveen wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 9 Aug 2025Heerenveen1–1FC Volendam
- 16 Dec 2023Heerenveen1–2FC Volendam
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Volendam | Heerenveen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.06 | 1.77 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.61 | 1.65 | |
| Match goals | 2.68 | 3.42 | 3.21 |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 97% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 77% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 42% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 71% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 35% | 19% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| FC Volendam | Heerenveen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.80 | 3.21 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 100% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Volendam | Heerenveen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.86 | 5.52 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.59 | 4.83 | |
| Match total | 10.45 | 10.35 | 10.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 72% 21/29 | 76% 22/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 62% 18/29 | 55% 16/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 48% 14/29 | 48% 14/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.45 | 1.48 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.87 | 1.39 | |
| Match total | 3.32 | 2.87 | 3.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 39% 12/31 | 32% 10/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 26% 8/31 | 16% 5/31 | |
| FC Volendam | Heerenveen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.40 | 5.44 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 10.11 | 10.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 2.20 | 3.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk Netherlands · 102 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.98league 3.12
Red cards0.11league 0.17
Cards 5+42%league 25%
Fouls23.0league 21.2
Penalties0.28league 0.22
Home wins49%league 45%
FC Volendam2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L13 Sep 25A · GO Ahead Eagles0–31
- W6 Oct 23H · Utrecht1–03
Heerenveen3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L6 Dec 25H · PSV Eindhoven0–21
- W10 Nov 24H · GO Ahead Eagles1–02
- L17 Sep 24A · Twente0–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Volendam31 games · scored 33 · conceded 50
2
12
0-15
2
6
16-30
7
11
31-45
6
7
46-60
8
5
61-75
8
9
76-90
Heerenveen31 games · scored 55 · conceded 51
2
7
0-15
8
11
16-30
14
6
31-45
10
9
46-60
10
7
61-75
11
11
76-90
FC Volendam10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
3
0-15
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Heerenveen10 games · scored 23 · conceded 15
4
0-15
4
3
16-30
6
1
31-45
5
3
46-60
5
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
