FC Volendam
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
FC Volendam
16th · 31 pts · 31 played
LLDLW
First leg1–1
0–2Full time
Heerenveen
8th · 47 pts · 31 played
WDWLW
FC Volendam33.2%fair odds 3.01
Draw24.4%fair odds 4.11
Heerenveen42.4%fair odds 2.36
Expected goals1.50 – 1.71total 3.21
Likeliest score1–110.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Heerenveen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| FC Volendam ↓ · Heerenveen → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.9 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are FC Volendam goals, columns Heerenveen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.9%9.16
- 1–28.9%11.28
- 2–17.7%12.91
- 2–26.6%15.09
- 0–16.4%15.67
- 0–25.9%16.86
- 1–05.5%18.16
- 1–35.1%19.77
- 0–04.6%21.74
- 2–04.5%22.09
Winning margin
6.0%
FC Volendam by 3+
fair 16.67
9.9%
FC Volendam by 2
fair 10.15
17.4%
FC Volendam by 1
fair 5.76
24.4%
Draw
fair 4.11
19.9%
Heerenveen by 1
fair 5.01
12.9%
Heerenveen by 2
fair 7.74
9.6%
Heerenveen by 3+
fair 10.46
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
22%5+
FC Volendam goals
22%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
7%4+
Heerenveen goals
18%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Volendam win | 33.2% | 33.4% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 24.4% | 24.8% | -0.4 pp |
| Heerenveen win | 42.4% | 41.8% | +0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 62.1% | 60.2% | +1.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 64.1% | 62.7% | +1.4 pp |
| Expected goals FC Volendam | 1.50 | 1.46 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals Heerenveen | 1.71 | 1.66 | +0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- FC Volendam win33.2%3.01
- Draw24.4%4.11
- Heerenveen win42.4%2.36
- Double chance FC Volendam or draw57.6%1.74
- Double chance FC Volendam or Heerenveen75.6%1.32
- Double chance Heerenveen or draw66.8%1.50
- Draw no bet FC Volendam43.9%2.28
- Draw no bet Heerenveen56.1%1.78
Goals
- Over 0.595.4%1.05
- Over 1.583.5%1.20
- Over 2.562.1%1.61
- Over 3.539.9%2.51
- Over 4.522.1%4.53
- Under 1.516.5%6.07
- Under 2.537.9%2.64
- Under 3.560.1%1.66
Both teams to score
- Yes64.1%1.56
- No35.9%2.79
- Yes and over 2.553.2%1.88
- FC Volendam win and yes19.8%5.06
- Draw and yes19.8%5.06
- Heerenveen win and yes24.6%4.06
Team goals
- FC Volendam over 0.577.6%1.29
- FC Volendam over 1.544.1%2.27
- FC Volendam over 2.519.0%5.27
- Heerenveen over 0.581.9%1.22
- Heerenveen over 1.551.0%1.96
- Heerenveen over 2.524.6%4.07
- FC Volendam clean sheet18.1%5.54
- Heerenveen clean sheet22.4%4.46
- FC Volendam win to nil13.5%7.43
- Heerenveen win to nil17.8%5.61
Handicap
- FC Volendam −1.515.9%6.31
- FC Volendam −2.56.0%16.67
- Heerenveen +1.584.1%1.19
- Heerenveen +2.594.0%1.06
- Heerenveen −1.522.5%4.45
- FC Volendam +1.577.5%1.29
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored283
Favourite won51.6%
Avg chance given to result41.0%
1X2 Brier0.589
Over 2.5 called right61.5%
BTTS called right61.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 41 | 38.0% | 34.1% |
| 40–50% | 105 | 44.9% | 45.7% |
| 50–60% | 72 | 55.2% | 48.6% |
| 60–70% | 36 | 64.4% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 21 | 74.3% | 85.7% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 84.1% | 87.5% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 234 of 283 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5902 | 0.5841 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.9% | 42.1% |
| Favourite won | 50.9% | 52.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 234 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 283 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.