FC Volendam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FC Volendam were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on NAC Breda. FC Volendam had 6.9 days of rest, NAC Breda 7 and had to travel 103 km.
Away travel103 kmRest days6.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
FC Volendam42%
Draw26%
NAC Breda32%
FC Volendam41%
Draw27%
NAC Breda32%
FC Volendam41%
Draw27%
NAC Breda33%
FC Volendam35%
Draw27%
NAC Breda39%
FC Volendam42%
Draw27%
NAC Breda31%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Volendam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsRichard Martens
- Cards per match 2.8
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 11
Team strength
FC Volendam
NAC Breda
14
L90 StrengthIn forecast
16
14
Current StrengthIn forecast
14
14
AttackIn forecast
19
19
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNAC Breda
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC VolendamNAC Breda
1.27
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.27
1.73
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.73
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.80
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
82%
Scored inContext
73%
9%
Clean sheetsContext
9%
10.55
ShotsContext
11.82
3.55
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
34%
On target shareContext
35%
6.64
Shots in the boxContext
7.91
62%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
1.44
OffsidesContext
2.11
18.00
Shots allowedContext
13.55
5.55
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.45
5.73
BlocksContext
3.27
4.09
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.73
74%
Save rateContext
68%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
364
PassesContext
383
294
Accurate passesContext
301
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.80
9.27
FoulsContext
12.18
12.45
Fouls sufferedContext
12.64
1.18
Yellow cardsContext
1.73
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
1.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.73
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
80%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.10
ShotsContext
12.30
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
32%
On target shareContext
37%
7.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
65%
Box shareContext
69%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
1.38
OffsidesContext
2.11
18.00
Shots allowedContext
12.90
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
5.70
BlocksContext
2.90
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
73%
Save rateContext
70%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
366
PassesContext
389
296
Accurate passesContext
307
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.81
9.30
FoulsContext
12.10
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Volendam
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km151 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
NAC Breda
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel103 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Volendam |
NAC Breda |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 1 Nov | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 1 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 103 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 151 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 13.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Volendam
Confirmed XI
1K. van Oevelen(G)
32Y. Leliendal
20N. Verschuren
3M. Amevor
2D. Payne
18N. Bukala
8G. Yah
11A. Oehlers
40R. van Cruijsen
10B. Kuwas
9H. Veerman
NAC Breda
Confirmed XI
99D. Bielica(G)
4B. Kemper
20F. Oldrup Jensen
16M. Balard
2B. Lucassen
8C. Leemans
10M. Nassoh
14K. Sowah
90L. Holtby
32J. Talvitie
17S. van Hooijdonk
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Volendam
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
NAC Breda
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Volendam+1.3 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- NAC Breda-1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Volendam · Home
1.60points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-1
- Scored
- 1.80
- Conceded
- 1.20
NAC Breda · Away
0.40points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-3
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 2.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | FC Volendam | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord | L 1–3 A | L 0–2 A |
| Heracles | W 3–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| PEC Zwolle | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | L 0–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Ajax | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | D 2–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Heerenveen | D 1–1 A | D 3–3 A |
| Points | 9 of 24 · 1.13 per game | 11 of 24 · 1.38 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| FC Volendam | NAC Breda | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.27 | 1.27 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.73 | 1.73 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 73% | 73% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 64% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 9% | 9% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 27% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| FC Volendam | NAC Breda | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.10 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 80% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Volendam | NAC Breda | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 4.27 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.10 | 3.73 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 8.00 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 18% 2/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 18% 2/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.18 | 1.91 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.91 | 2.18 | |
| Match total | 3.09 | 4.09 | 3.58 |
| Over 3.5 | 36% 4/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 27% 3/11 | 45% 5/11 | |
| FC Volendam | NAC Breda | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.78 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 9.78 | 8.10 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 4.30 | 3.58 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Richard Martens Netherlands · 11 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.82league 3.36
Red cards0.00league 0.21
Cards 5+9%league 33%
Fouls20.2league 22.2
Penalties0.18league 0.30
Home wins36%league 48%
FC Volendam2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L12 Nov 23H · Sparta Rotterdam1–40
- L3 Sep 23H · Twente0–22
NAC BredaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Volendam11 games · scored 14 · conceded 19
1
5
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
NAC Breda11 games · scored 14 · conceded 19
1
4
0-15
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
5
4
46-60
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
FC Volendam10 games · scored 13 · conceded 18
1
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
NAC Breda10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
1
3
0-15
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
5
3
46-60
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
