FC Volendam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
PEC Zwolle were the stronger side on L90 Strength (23 vs 13). FC Volendam had 7.1 days of rest, PEC Zwolle 2.9 and had to travel 69 km.
Away travel69 kmRest days7.1 · 2.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
FC Volendam34%
Draw27%
PEC Zwolle39%
FC Volendam33%
Draw27%
PEC Zwolle39%
FC Volendam34%
Draw27%
PEC Zwolle39%
FC Volendam28%
Draw26%
PEC Zwolle46%
FC Volendam34%
Draw27%
PEC Zwolle39%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Volendam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsRobin Hensgens
- Cards per match 2.7
- Penalties per match 0.11
- Matches 18
Team strength
FC Volendam
PEC Zwolle
13
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
14
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
14
AttackIn forecast
17
19
DefenceIn forecast
14
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPEC Zwolle
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC VolendamPEC Zwolle
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.83
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
83%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
11.33
ShotsContext
7.83
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.50
35%
On target shareContext
32%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.00
56%
Box shareContext
64%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
1.60
OffsidesContext
2.20
16.67
Shots allowedContext
16.83
6.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.83
3.83
BlocksContext
3.33
5.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.17
78%
Save rateContext
76%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
362
PassesContext
350
288
Accurate passesContext
271
80%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.94
10.33
FoulsContext
10.00
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
80%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.70
ShotsContext
10.70
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
36%
On target shareContext
34%
6.56
Shots in the boxContext
6.90
65%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.67
19.90
Shots allowedContext
15.10
7.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
5.10
BlocksContext
3.78
5.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
73%
Save rateContext
76%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
340
PassesContext
399
263
Accurate passesContext
322
77%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.76
Team ratingContext
7.05
9.60
FoulsContext
10.60
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Volendam
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km158 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
PEC Zwolle
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel69 km184 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Volendam |
PEC Zwolle |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 20 Sep | 2.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 24 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 69 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 158 km | 184 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 2 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Volendam
Confirmed XI
1K. van Oevelen(G)
32Y. Leliendal
20N. Verschuren
3M. Amevor
5P. Ugwu
18N. Bukala
6A. Plat
17J. Ideho
40R. van Cruijsen
10B. Kuwas
9H. Veerman
PEC Zwolle
Confirmed XI
16T. de Graaff(G)
2S. Floranus
4A. MacNulty
28S. Graves
3O. Aertssen
25T. Oosting
30R. Thomas
22K. de Rooij
7S. Shoretire
19J. Faberski
10Koen Kostons
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Volendam
Absences are shown before kick-off
PEC Zwolle
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Volendam+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- PEC Zwolle-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Volendam · Home
0.67points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.67
PEC Zwolle · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | FC Volendam | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| GO Ahead Eagles | L 0–3 A | L 0–2 H |
| Ajax | D 1–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Telstar | D 2–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | D 2–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 3 of 12 · 0.75 per game | 4 of 12 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 FC Volendam wins0 draws1 PEC Zwolle wins
Goals per game0.00 – 5.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 2 Dec 2023FC Volendam0–5PEC Zwolle
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Volendam | PEC Zwolle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.83 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.50 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 33% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| FC Volendam | PEC Zwolle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.83 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.50 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 33% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Volendam | PEC Zwolle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.17 | 2.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 5.80 | |
| Match total | 9.84 | 7.80 | 10.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.17 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.00 | 3.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| FC Volendam | PEC Zwolle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 3.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.40 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 7.55 | 10.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.70 | 3.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robin Hensgens Netherlands · 18 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.44league 3.50
Red cards0.28league 0.21
Cards 5+17%league 38%
Fouls20.9league 22.6
Penalties0.11league 0.21
Home wins50%league 48%
FC VolendamNo previous matches with this referee.
PEC Zwolle1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D27 Oct 23A · Vitesse1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Volendam6 games · scored 7 · conceded 11
1
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
PEC Zwolle5 games · scored 6 · conceded 7
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
FC Volendam10 games · scored 11 · conceded 22
4
6
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
5
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
PEC Zwolle9 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
