FC Volendam
Attack—
Defense risk—
FC Volendam
15th · 21 pts · 22 played
LWLDW
First leg0–3
2–1Full time
PSV Eindhoven
1st · 59 pts · 22 played
WWDWW
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were clear favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 14). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for FC Volendam. FC Volendam had 6.1 days of rest, PSV Eindhoven 5.1 and had to travel 120 km.
Away travel120 kmRest days6.1 · 5.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
FC Volendam11%
Draw18%
PSV Eindhoven72%
FC Volendam9%
Draw16%
PSV Eindhoven75%
FC Volendam10%
Draw17%
PSV Eindhoven73%
FC Volendam7%
Draw14%
PSV Eindhoven78%
FC Volendam11%
Draw19%
PSV Eindhoven70%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Volendam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSander van der Eijk
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 53
Team strength
FC VolendamPSV Eindhoven
14
L90 StrengthIn forecast
80
14
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
14
AttackIn forecast
60
19
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC VolendamPSV Eindhoven
1.09
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
1.68
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.18
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.96
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+1.04
68%
Scored inContext
95%
5%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
10.32
ShotsContext
16.95
3.55
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.00
34%
On target shareContext
41%
6.27
Shots in the boxContext
11.68
60%
Box shareContext
69%
11%
ConversionContext
18%
1.79
OffsidesContext
1.94
18.00
Shots allowedContext
10.73
6.23
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.71
5.55
BlocksContext
3.11
4.68
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.74
75%
Save rateContext
69%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
362
PassesContext
550
292
Accurate passesContext
478
81%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.83
Team ratingContext
7.08
9.36
FoulsContext
11.36
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
8.50
1.45
Yellow cardsContext
1.36
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.94
1.78
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
50%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.90
ShotsContext
14.40
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
34%
On target shareContext
40%
5.80
Shots in the boxContext
9.90
58%
Box shareContext
64%
8%
ConversionContext
16%
2.22
OffsidesContext
1.63
18.60
Shots allowedContext
10.40
7.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
5.60
BlocksContext
2.38
5.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
76%
Save rateContext
62%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
356
PassesContext
522
286
Accurate passesContext
447
80%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.91
9.20
FoulsContext
10.50
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
8.70
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Volendam
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km139 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
PSV Eindhoven
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel120 km422 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Volendam |
PSV Eindhoven |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 7 Feb | 5.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 8 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 120 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 139 km | 422 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Volendam
Confirmed XI
1K. van Oevelen(G)
32Y. Leliendal
20N. Verschuren
3M. Amevor
5P. Ugwu
23D. Kwakman
29B. Pauwels
7O. Kökçü
4J. Bacuna
77B. Ould-Chikh
10B. Kuwas
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
24N. Schiks(G)
17Mauro Júnior
4A. Obispo
6R. Flamingo
8S. Dest
23J. Veerman
22J. Schouten
5I. Perišić
10P. Wanner
19E. Bajraktarević
20G. Til
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Volendam
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
PSV Eindhoven
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Volendam+0.3 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- PSV Eindhoven-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Volendam · Home
1.45points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-3
- Scored
- 1.55
- Conceded
- 1.27
PSV Eindhoven · Away
3.00points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 11-0-0
- Scored
- 2.73
- Conceded
- 0.91
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | FC Volendam | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H | W 4–0 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A | W 2–1 H |
| Ajax | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Utrecht | W 2–1 HL 1–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H | W 5–1 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–1 H | W 6–1 H |
| Groningen | L 0–3 A | W 2–1 AW 4–2 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 2–3 H | W 5–3 A |
| Twente | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| NAC Breda | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Feyenoord | L 1–3 A | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A |
| Heracles | W 3–0 H | W 4–3 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 AW 5–2 H |
| Excelsior | L 1–2 H | W 5–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Telstar | D 2–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Heerenveen | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Points | 21 of 63 · 1.00 per game | 56 of 63 · 2.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 FC Volendam wins0 draws3 PSV Eindhoven wins
Goals per game0.67 – 3.67
Over 2.5100%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 30 Nov 2025PSV Eindhoven3–0FC Volendam
- 11 Feb 2024FC Volendam1–5PSV Eindhoven
- 30 Sep 2023PSV Eindhoven3–1FC Volendam
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Volendam | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.09 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.68 | 1.18 | |
| Match goals | 2.77 | 4.18 | 3.23 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 95% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 82% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 68% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 5% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 32% | 5% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| FC Volendam | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 2.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.50 | 3.23 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Volendam | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.85 | 7.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.65 | 4.23 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 11.37 | 10.26 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 14/20 | 82% 18/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 12/20 | 82% 18/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 10/20 | 55% 12/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.41 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.18 | 1.73 | |
| Match total | 3.68 | 3.14 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 45% 10/22 | 36% 8/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 8/22 | 27% 6/22 | |
| FC Volendam | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.44 | 8.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.33 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 10.77 | 12.30 | 10.26 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 5.20 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sander van der Eijk Netherlands · 53 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.47league 3.36
Red cards0.32league 0.20
Cards 5+34%league 31%
Fouls22.5league 21.7
Penalties0.19league 0.25
Home wins47%league 43%
FC Volendam1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D23 Aug 25A · Telstar2–20
PSV Eindhoven4 with this referee
Record4-0-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W18 Oct 25H · GO Ahead Eagles2–11
- W17 Aug 25A · Twente2–02
- W6 Dec 24H · Twente6–10
- W9 Nov 24A · NAC Breda3–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Volendam22 games · scored 24 · conceded 37
2
10
0-15
2
4
16-30
6
7
31-45
4
6
46-60
5
4
61-75
5
6
76-90
PSV Eindhoven22 games · scored 66 · conceded 26
11
2
0-15
15
2
16-30
10
9
31-45
10
3
46-60
9
7
61-75
11
3
76-90
FC Volendam10 games · scored 8 · conceded 17
1
5
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 23 · conceded 17
5
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
6
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
7
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
