FC Volendam
Attack—
Defense risk—
FC Volendam
16th · 32 pts · 33 played
DLWLD
First leg2–2
1–2Full time
Telstar
15th · 34 pts · 33 played
LLWDW
Our take
It was too close to call.
Telstar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (26 vs 15). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Telstar. FC Volendam had 6.9 days of rest, Telstar 6.9 and had to travel 29 km.
Away travel29 kmRest days6.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
FC Volendam33%
Draw25%
Telstar41%
FC Volendam34%
Draw27%
Telstar39%
FC Volendam33%
Draw25%
Telstar41%
FC Volendam27%
Draw24%
Telstar49%
FC Volendam33%
Draw26%
Telstar41%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Volendam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMarc Nagtegaal
- Cards per match 2.6
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 54
Team strength
FC VolendamTelstar
15
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
14
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
14
AttackIn forecast
24
19
DefenceIn forecast
13
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTelstar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC VolendamTelstar
1.03
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.42
1.61
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.64
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
1.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.76
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
64%
Scored inContext
76%
9%
Clean sheetsContext
15%
10.55
ShotsContext
12.45
3.61
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.91
34%
On target shareContext
38%
6.45
Shots in the boxContext
8.10
61%
Box shareContext
63%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
1.65
OffsidesContext
2.22
17.85
Shots allowedContext
15.58
6.06
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.19
5.52
BlocksContext
4.52
4.55
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.47
75%
Save rateContext
72%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
354
PassesContext
357
280
Accurate passesContext
276
79%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.89
9.12
FoulsContext
11.06
11.76
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.52
Yellow cardsContext
1.21
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.06
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
-0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.48
50%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.90
ShotsContext
12.20
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
34%
On target shareContext
48%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
62%
Box shareContext
73%
7%
ConversionContext
16%
1.33
OffsidesContext
1.88
17.40
Shots allowedContext
15.30
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.44
5.50
BlocksContext
4.11
4.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.56
74%
Save rateContext
71%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
346
PassesContext
368
260
Accurate passesContext
287
75%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.96
8.60
FoulsContext
10.90
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
8.80
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Volendam
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km151 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Telstar
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel29 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Volendam |
Telstar |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 10 May | 6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 10 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 29 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 151 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | — | 83.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Volendam
Confirmed XI
16R. Steur(G)
32Y. Leliendal
20N. Verschuren
3M. Amevor
5P. Ugwu
8G. Yah
4J. Bacuna
18N. Bukala
29B. Pauwels
99A. Descotte
77B. Ould-Chikh
Telstar
Confirmed XI
1R. Koeman(G)
6D. Bakker
21D. Koswal
14Nigel Ogidi Nwankwo
2J. Hardeveld
17N. Rossen
4G. Offerhaus
11T. Noslin
27P. Brouwer
30K. Tejan
37Sem van Duijn
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Volendam
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Telstar
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Volendam+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Telstar+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Volendam · Home
1.44points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-5-5
- Scored
- 1.44
- Conceded
- 1.31
Telstar · Away
0.88points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-8
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.63
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | FC Volendam | Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Heerenveen | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A | L 0–3 AL 2–3 H |
| Heracles | W 2–0 AW 3–0 H | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Twente | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Feyenoord | D 0–0 HL 1–3 A | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H | W 4–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | W 4–1 AL 1–3 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 0–3 AL 2–3 H | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Groningen | W 3–2 HL 0–3 A | L 0–2 HL 0–2 A |
| NAC Breda | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | W 2–1 HL 0–3 A | W 3–1 HW 2–0 A |
| PEC Zwolle | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H | L 1–4 AL 0–2 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A | D 1–1 AW 4–2 H |
| Ajax | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H | L 2–3 HL 0–2 A |
| Utrecht | W 2–1 HL 1–3 A | L 1–4 AD 1–1 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H | L 0–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Points | 31 of 96 · 0.97 per game | 33 of 96 · 1.03 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 FC Volendam wins1 draws0 Telstar wins
Goals per game2.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 23 Aug 2025Telstar2–2FC Volendam
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Volendam | Telstar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.03 | 1.42 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.61 | 1.64 | |
| Match goals | 2.64 | 3.06 | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 58% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 39% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 64% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 9% | 15% | |
| Failed to score | 36% | 24% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| FC Volendam | Telstar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 3.50 | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 80% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Volendam | Telstar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.97 | 4.74 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.53 | 6.35 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 11.09 | 10.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 73% 22/30 | 81% 25/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 19/30 | 68% 21/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 15/30 | 58% 18/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.55 | 1.27 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.12 | 3.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 42% 14/33 | 33% 11/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 27% 9/33 | 27% 9/33 | |
| FC Volendam | Telstar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.11 | 6.67 | |
| Match total | 10.33 | 11.00 | 10.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.30 | 3.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marc Nagtegaal Netherlands · 54 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.44league 3.11
Red cards0.11league 0.17
Cards 5+20%league 26%
Fouls19.2league 21.2
Penalties0.20league 0.21
Home wins57%league 45%
FC Volendam5 with this referee
Record1-1-3
Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.4
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L8 Mar 26A · NEC Nijmegen0–30
- W18 Jan 26H · Utrecht2–13
- L1 Nov 25A · Feyenoord1–30
- L20 Sep 25H · Excelsior1–23
- D9 Aug 25A · Heerenveen1–11
Telstar2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W22 Mar 26H · PSV Eindhoven3–11
- W17 May 25A · ADO Den Haag1–04
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Volendam33 games · scored 34 · conceded 53
3
13
0-15
2
6
16-30
7
12
31-45
6
7
46-60
8
5
61-75
8
10
76-90
Telstar33 games · scored 47 · conceded 54
5
6
0-15
4
8
16-30
9
9
31-45
6
4
46-60
11
10
61-75
12
17
76-90
FC Volendam10 games · scored 8 · conceded 15
1
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Telstar10 games · scored 20 · conceded 15
3
1
0-15
3
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
6
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
