FCSB
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Feyenoord were slight favourites.
Feyenoord were the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 32). Absences weigh more on FCSB. FCSB had 14 days of rest, Feyenoord 5 and had to travel 1,789 km.
Away travel1,789 kmRest days14 · 5Matches / 14d1 · 2
FCSB28%
Draw26%
Feyenoord46%
FCSB30%
Draw27%
Feyenoord43%
FCSB30%
Draw26%
Feyenoord44%
FCSB22%
Draw24%
Feyenoord53%
FCSB29%
Draw26%
Feyenoord45%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bucureşti)
No weather data yet
RefereeMykola Balakin
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 52
Team strength
FCSB
Feyenoord
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
55
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
59
36
AttackIn forecast
76
33
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFeyenoord
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FCSBFeyenoord
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
0.74
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.78
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.91
-0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.23
60%
Scored inContext
40%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.80
ShotsContext
12.80
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
41%
On target shareContext
34%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
59%
Box shareContext
55%
5%
ConversionContext
6%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.20
18.20
Shots allowedContext
8.40
7.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
4.80
BlocksContext
2.33
5.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.20
78%
Save rateContext
58%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
359
PassesContext
408
282
Accurate passesContext
344
78%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.76
13.80
FoulsContext
16.00
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.70
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
0.74
xGVia Att/Def
2.02
1.78
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+0.76
Goals minus xGContext
+0.68
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.14
ShotsContext
17.90
4.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.00
44%
On target shareContext
39%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
11.80
59%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
15%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.71
18.00
Shots allowedContext
10.00
6.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
6.17
BlocksContext
2.33
5.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
75%
Save rateContext
66%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
359
PassesContext
444
282
Accurate passesContext
375
78%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.97
12.71
FoulsContext
12.00
13.57
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FCSB
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km884 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Feyenoord
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,789 km122 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FCSB |
Feyenoord |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 27 Nov | 5Eredivisie 2025-2026, 6 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,789 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 884 km | 122 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 42 | 2.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FCSB
Confirmed XI
32Ș. Târnovanu(G)
33R. Radunović
16M. Lixandru
30S. Ngezana
28A. Pantea
8A. Șut
42B. Alhassan
37O. Popescu
10F. Tănase
31Juri Cisotti
93M. Thiam
Feyenoord
Confirmed XI
22T. Wellenreuther(G)
5G. Smal
43J. Plug
21A. Ahmedhodžić
30M. Lotomba
40L. Valente
28O. Targhalline
16L. Sauer
8Q. Timber
23A. Hadj Moussa
17C. Tengstedt
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FCSB
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Feyenoord
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FCSB-1.4 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Feyenoord+1.8 pp
Home / Away this season
FCSB · Home
0.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Feyenoord · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| FCSB | Feyenoord | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 60% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| FCSB | Feyenoord | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 2.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 4.50 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 90% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 5 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FCSB | Feyenoord | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.80 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 11.40 | 7.60 | 8.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 4/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 4/5 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 4/5 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 5.60 | 5.40 | 4.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 4/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 3/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| FCSB | Feyenoord | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.29 | 6.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.86 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 10.15 | 9.20 | 8.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 4/7 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.10 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 3.00 | 4.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mykola Balakin 52 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.04league 4.13
Red cards0.23league 0.19
Cards 5+42%league 42%
Fouls23.2league 24.7
Penalties0.27league 0.36
Home wins29%league 51%
FCSBNo previous matches with this referee.
FeyenoordNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FCSB5 games · scored 3 · conceded 8
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Feyenoord5 games · scored 4 · conceded 9
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
5
76-90
FCSB9 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
2
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Feyenoord10 games · scored 27 · conceded 18
3
1
0-15
5
2
16-30
6
3
31-45
6
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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