Fenerbahce vs Antalyaspor – 28 Sep 2025

Süper Lig Gameweek 7 Sun, Sep 28 · 18:00 Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul

Fenerbahce 4th · 12 pts · 6 played WWWDD

2–0Full time

Antalyaspor 8th · 10 pts · 6 played WLLWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Fenerbahce were clear favourites.

Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 17). Absences weigh more on Antalyaspor. Fenerbahce had 3.9 days of rest, Antalyaspor 8 and had to travel 481 km.

Away travel481 kmRest days3.9 · 8Matches / 14d3 · 1

Fenerbahce77%

Draw15%

Antalyaspor8%

Expected goals 2.62 – 0.74

Fenerbahce73%

Draw17%

Antalyaspor9%

Expected goals 2.39 – 0.75

Fenerbahce75%

Draw16%

Antalyaspor9%

Expected goals 2.48 – 0.76

Fenerbahce71%

Draw18%

Antalyaspor11%

Expected goals 2.33 – 0.83

Fenerbahce76%

Draw16%

Antalyaspor8%

Expected goals 2.52 – 0.73

Over 2.5 65% Both score 49% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (İstanbul)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeAli Yilmaz

Cards per match 3.0
Penalties per match 0.50
Matches 6

Team strength

Fenerbahce

Antalyaspor

61 L90 StrengthIn forecast 17

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 13

75 AttackIn forecast 11

53 DefenceIn forecast 14

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fenerbahce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Antalyaspor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fenerbahce

Antalyaspor

1.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.17

0.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.97 xGVia Att/Def 0.90

0.63 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.11

-0.30 Goals minus xGContext +0.27

83% Scored inContext 83%

33% Clean sheetsContext 17%

16.83 ShotsContext 9.50

4.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

28% On target shareContext 53%

10.17 Shots in the boxContext 6.83

61% Box shareContext 70%

10% ConversionContext 12%

2.17 OffsidesContext 1.80

8.17 Shots allowedContext 14.33

1.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.67

4.25 BlocksContext 3.33

1.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

75% Save rateContext 73%

63% PossessionIn forecast 47%

506 PassesContext 356

437 Accurate passesContext 282

86% Pass accuracyContext 79%

7.03 Team ratingContext 6.85

12.33 FoulsContext 11.50

14.67 Fouls sufferedContext 13.17

1.83 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.71 xGVia Att/Def 0.78

0.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.23

-0.11 Goals minus xGContext +0.12

70% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.00 ShotsContext 9.20

4.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.10

31% On target shareContext 45%

7.80 Shots in the boxContext 6.22

53% Box shareContext 64%

11% ConversionContext 10%

2.10 OffsidesContext 1.88

10.00 Shots allowedContext 12.20

2.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

4.25 BlocksContext 2.89

2.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

77% Save rateContext 67%

59% PossessionIn forecast 48%

470 PassesContext 375

398 Accurate passesContext 305

85% Pass accuracyContext 81%

7.01 Team ratingContext 6.75

13.60 FoulsContext 11.30

13.80 Fouls sufferedContext 12.90

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fenerbahce

Rest3.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km2,348 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Antalyaspor

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel481 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fenerbahce	Antalyaspor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 20	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 24 Sep	8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 20 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	481 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,348 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 4	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	4	5

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fenerbahce Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

31Ederson(G)

3A. Brown 24J. Oosterwolde 37M. Škriniar 27Nélson Semedo

5İ. Yüksek 21Marco Asensio

9M. Aktürkoğlu 94Talisca 45D. Nene

19Y. En-Nesyri

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Antalyaspor Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Julián(G)

3K. Paal 14G. Dzhikiya 30L. Giannetti 7B. Balcı

20Hasan Yakub İlçin 6S. Dikmen

26N. Storm 8R. Safouri 10A. Ömür

22S. van de Streek

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fenerbahce Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Antalyaspor Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.14 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Fenerbahce+2.6 pp
Draw-1.4 pp
Antalyaspor-1.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Fenerbahce · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.00

Antalyaspor · Away 2.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 2-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Fenerbahce	Antalyaspor
Kasimpasa	D 1–1 A	W 2–1 H
Trabzonspor	W 1–0 H	L 0–1 A
Genclerbirligi	W 3–1 A	W 1–0 A
Points	7 of 9 · 2.33 per game	6 of 9 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

4 Fenerbahce wins0 draws0 Antalyaspor wins

Goals per game2.50 – 0.50 Over 2.550% Both scored25% Clean sheets75% · 0%

2 Mar 2025Fenerbahce3–0Antalyaspor
29 Sep 2024Antalyaspor0–2Fenerbahce
3 Feb 2024Antalyaspor0–2Fenerbahce
17 Sep 2023Fenerbahce3–2Antalyaspor

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Fenerbahce	Antalyaspor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.67	1.17
Conceded per game	0.83	1.00
Match goals	2.50	2.17	3.36
Over 1.5	67%	67%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	65%
Over 3.5	50%	0%
Both teams scored	67%	67%	49%
Clean sheets	33%	17%
Failed to score	17%	17%
Games	6	6

	Fenerbahce	Antalyaspor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.57	1.17
Conceded per game	1.14	1.00
Match goals	2.71	2.17	3.36
Over 1.5	71%	67%
Over 2.5	57%	50%	65%
Over 3.5	57%	0%
Both teams scored	71%	67%	49%
Clean sheets	29%	17%
Failed to score	14%	17%
Games	7	6

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fenerbahce	Antalyaspor	League
Corners
Corners won	5.33	4.83
Corners conceded	3.67	5.00
Match total	9.00	9.83	9.67
Over 8.5	33% 1/3	67% 4/6
Over 9.5	33% 1/3	67% 4/6
Over 10.5	33% 1/3	33% 2/6
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.00
Opponent cards	3.50	2.00
Match total	5.50	4.00	4.75
Over 3.5	67% 4/6	50% 3/6
Over 4.5	67% 4/6	50% 3/6

	Fenerbahce	Antalyaspor	League
Corners
Corners won	4.57	4.30
Corners conceded	4.43	4.60
Match total	9.00	8.90	9.67
Over 8.5	43% 3/7	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	1.50
Opponent cards	3.20	1.80
Match total	5.60	3.30	4.75
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ali Yilmaz Türkiye · 6 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.00league 4.48

Red cards0.00league 0.26

Cards 5+33%league 48%

Fouls24.7league 26.3

Penalties0.50league 0.24

Home wins50%league 36%

Fenerbahce

No previous matches with this referee.

Antalyaspor2 with this referee

Record0-0-2 Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

L24 Aug 25A · Trabzonspor0–12
L30 May 25H · Trabzonspor0–20

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.