Fenerbahce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Süper Lig
Gameweek 6 Sun, Sep 20 · 15:00
Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul
Our take
Fenerbahce were clear favourites.
Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 16). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Fenerbahce. Fenerbahce had 5.9 days of rest, Eyüpspor 8 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days5.9 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Fenerbahce77%
Draw14%
Eyüpspor8%
Fenerbahce75%
Draw16%
Eyüpspor9%
Fenerbahce78%
Draw14%
Eyüpspor8%
Fenerbahce71%
Draw17%
Eyüpspor12%
Fenerbahce77%
Draw15%
Eyüpspor9%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeKadir Saglam
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 20
Team strength
Fenerbahce
Eyüpspor
62
L90 StrengthIn forecast
16
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
75
AttackIn forecast
9
53
DefenceIn forecast
10
49
Form indexContext
10
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEyüpspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FenerbahceEyüpspor
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.40
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
2.27
xGVia Att/Def
0.78
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
-0.67
Goals minus xGContext
-0.38
80%
Scored inContext
20%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
17.75
ShotsContext
11.80
7.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.80
41%
On target shareContext
24%
13.25
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
70%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
3%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.00
11.75
Shots allowedContext
12.60
5.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
2.75
BlocksContext
3.60
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
65%
Save rateContext
68%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
480
PassesContext
381
419
Accurate passesContext
322
87%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.70
14.25
FoulsContext
13.20
12.75
Fouls sufferedContext
16.60
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
2.27
xGVia Att/Def
0.82
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
-0.77
Goals minus xGContext
+0.68
90%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.33
ShotsContext
10.40
6.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
45%
On target shareContext
34%
11.22
Shots in the boxContext
6.33
71%
Box shareContext
55%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.50
12.00
Shots allowedContext
13.60
4.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.78
BlocksContext
4.20
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
74%
Save rateContext
72%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
456
PassesContext
350
391
Accurate passesContext
287
86%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.82
13.56
FoulsContext
12.70
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fenerbahce
WWLDD
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,700 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 49 · 8 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected
Eyüpspor
LLWLL
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,016 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 10 · 3 pts vs 9.2 for an average club · -3.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fenerbahce |
Eyüpspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Süper Lig 2026-2027, 14 Sep | 8Süper Lig 2026-2027, 12 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,700 km | 1,016 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 20.1 | 22.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fenerbahce
Confirmed XI
31Ederson(G)
3A. Brown
15N. Aké
37M. Škriniar
27Nélson Semedo
6M. Guendouzi
91N. Kanté
7M. Aktürkoğlu
17İ. Kahveci
11M. Greenwood
19V. Muriqi
Eyüpspor
Confirmed XI
31H. Moldovan(G)
21S. Giordano
4S. Yaşar
33Z. Jules
7Talha Ülvan
88C. Massanga
77K. Michalak
15Charles-Andre Raux Yao
8David Costa
98B. Boutobba
29A. Abdullahi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fenerbahce
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Eyüpspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fenerbahce-0.4 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Eyüpspor+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Fenerbahce · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Eyüpspor · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Fenerbahce | Eyüpspor |
|---|---|---|
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Besiktas | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Fenerbahce wins2 draws0 Eyüpspor wins
Goals per game2.25 – 1.25
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 17 May 2026Fenerbahce3–3Eyüpspor
- 20 Dec 2025Eyüpspor0–3Fenerbahce
- 18 May 2025Fenerbahce2–1Eyüpspor
- 20 Dec 2024Eyüpspor1–1Fenerbahce
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fenerbahce | Eyüpspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 0.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.00 | 3.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 80% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Fenerbahce | Eyüpspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.80 | 3.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fenerbahce | Eyüpspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.75 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 7.80 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.60 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 2/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Fenerbahce | Eyüpspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.63 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.63 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 9.26 | 9.11 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.40 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Kadir Saglam Türkiye · 20 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.15league 3.80
Red cards0.20league 0.16
Cards 5+60%league 40%
Fouls28.5league 25.6
Penalties0.35league 0.32
Home wins30%league 46%
Fenerbahce1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W17 Mar 26H · Gazişehir Gaziantep4–11
Eyüpspor2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.4.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L5 Apr 26A · Antalyaspor0–37
- D27 Sep 25H · Goztepe0–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fenerbahce5 games · scored 8 · conceded 6
3
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Eyüpspor5 games · scored 2 · conceded 8
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
2
76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 15 · conceded 9
4
1
0-15
4
16-30
2
4
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
76-90
Eyüpspor10 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
3
4
16-30
5
31-45
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
