Fenerbahce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Süper Lig
Gameweek 9 Sun, Oct 19 · 18:00
Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul
Fenerbahce
5th · 16 pts · 8 played
WDDWD
2–1Full time
Fatih Karagümrük
18th · 3 pts · 8 played
LLLLL
Our take
Fenerbahce were clear favourites.
Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 14). Fenerbahce had 14 days of rest, Fatih Karagümrük 14.1 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days14 · 14.1Matches / 14d1 · 0
Fenerbahce79%
Draw14%
Fatih Karagümrük7%
Fenerbahce77%
Draw15%
Fatih Karagümrük8%
Fenerbahce78%
Draw15%
Fatih Karagümrük7%
Fenerbahce72%
Draw17%
Fatih Karagümrük10%
Fenerbahce77%
Draw15%
Fatih Karagümrük8%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAli Sansalan
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.88
- Matches 8
Team strength
FenerbahceFatih Karagümrük
62
L90 StrengthIn forecast
14
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
75
AttackIn forecast
13
53
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFatih Karagümrük
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FenerbahceFatih Karagümrük
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.88
0.63
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.25
1.85
xGVia Att/Def
0.85
0.69
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.63
-0.35
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
75%
Scored inContext
38%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
15.75
ShotsContext
10.75
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
32%
On target shareContext
28%
8.88
Shots in the boxContext
5.63
56%
Box shareContext
53%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.17
8.25
Shots allowedContext
14.38
2.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.88
3.17
BlocksContext
3.43
2.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.14
87%
Save rateContext
63%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
501
PassesContext
374
437
Accurate passesContext
295
87%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.50
13.13
FoulsContext
13.25
14.25
Fouls sufferedContext
14.75
2.25
Yellow cardsContext
1.63
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.62
xGVia Att/Def
0.85
0.86
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.63
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
80%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.20
ShotsContext
10.60
5.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
32%
On target shareContext
31%
7.30
Shots in the boxContext
5.90
48%
Box shareContext
55%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.29
9.00
Shots allowedContext
13.90
2.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
3.13
BlocksContext
3.33
2.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
79%
Save rateContext
62%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
501
PassesContext
372
432
Accurate passesContext
293
86%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.56
13.30
FoulsContext
12.60
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.90
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fenerbahce
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,238 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fatih Karagümrük
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fenerbahce |
Fatih Karagümrük |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Süper Lig 2025-2026, 5 Oct | 14.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 5 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,238 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 5 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fenerbahce
Confirmed XI
13T. Çetin(G)
22M. Mercan
24J. Oosterwolde
4Ç. Söyüncü
27Nélson Semedo
5İ. Yüksek
11E. Álvarez
21Marco Asensio
9M. Aktürkoğlu
94Talisca
45D. Nene
Fatih Karagümrük
Confirmed XI
13I. Grbić(G)
29J. Balkovec
94Anıl Yiğit Çınar
3E. Roco
6A. Çankaya
5M. Kranevitter
11D. Johnson
21T. Çukur
23S. Larsson
70Serginho
19D. Fofana
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fenerbahce
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fatih Karagümrük
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fenerbahce+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Fatih Karagümrük-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Fenerbahce · Home
2.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.75
Fatih Karagümrük · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Fenerbahce | Fatih Karagümrük |
|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor | D 0–0 A | L 2–3 A |
| Antalyaspor | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Kasimpasa | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Trabzonspor | W 1–0 H | L 3–4 H |
| Goztepe | D 0–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 9 of 15 · 1.80 per game | 3 of 15 · 0.60 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Fenerbahce wins0 draws0 Fatih Karagümrük wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 14 Apr 2024Fatih Karagümrük1–2Fenerbahce
- 26 Nov 2023Fenerbahce2–1Fatih Karagümrük
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fenerbahce | Fatih Karagümrük | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.63 | 2.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.13 | 3.13 | 3.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 50% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 38% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 63% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Fenerbahce | Fatih Karagümrük | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 2.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 3.13 | 3.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 38% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 63% | |
| Games | 10 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fenerbahce | Fatih Karagümrük | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.25 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.38 | 1.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.38 | 1.88 | |
| Match total | 5.76 | 3.63 | 5.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 5/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 63% 5/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Fenerbahce | Fatih Karagümrük | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.29 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.29 | 5.70 | |
| Match total | 8.58 | 10.10 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.90 | 5.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ali Sansalan Türkiye · 8 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.88league 4.86
Red cards0.13league 0.26
Cards 5+75%league 56%
Fouls26.0league 26.6
Penalties0.88league 0.29
Home wins63%league 36%
FenerbahceNo previous matches with this referee.
Fatih KaragümrükNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fenerbahce8 games · scored 12 · conceded 5
3
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük8 games · scored 7 · conceded 18
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
46-60
5
61-75
4
3
76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 15 · conceded 10
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük10 games · scored 11 · conceded 22
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
5
46-60
1
5
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
