Süper Lig Gameweek 9 Sun, Oct 19 · 18:00 Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul
Fenerbahce 5th · 16 pts · 8 played
2–1Full time
Fatih Karagümrük 18th · 3 pts · 8 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Fenerbahce78.6%fair odds 1.27
Draw14.1%fair odds 7.09
Fatih Karagümrük7.3%fair odds 13.72
Expected goals2.73 – 0.74total 3.47
Likeliest score2–011.6%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Fenerbahce

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Fatih Karagümrük

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Fenerbahce ↓ · Fatih Karagümrük →0123456+
03.42.00.90.20.00.00.0
18.16.62.30.60.10.00.0
211.68.63.20.80.10.00.0
310.57.82.90.70.10.00.0
47.25.32.00.50.10.00.0
53.92.91.10.30.00.00.0
6+2.82.10.80.20.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Fenerbahce goals, columns Fatih Karagümrük goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 2–011.6%8.65
  • 3–010.5%9.51
  • 2–18.6%11.63
  • 1–08.1%12.29
  • 3–17.8%12.79
  • 4–07.2%13.95
  • 1–16.6%15.07
  • 4–15.3%18.75
  • 5–03.9%25.57
  • 0–03.4%29.07

Winning margin

36.8% Fenerbahce by 3+ fair 2.72
21.7% Fenerbahce by 2 fair 4.62
20.2% Fenerbahce by 1 fair 4.95
14.1% Draw fair 7.09
5.3% Fatih Karagümrük by 1 fair 19.00
1.6% Fatih Karagümrük by 2 fair 62.11
0.4% Fatih Karagümrük by 3+ fair 241.63

Goal distribution

Total goals

3%0
10%1
19%2
22%3
19%4
27%5+

Fenerbahce goals

7%0
18%1
24%2
22%3
29%4+

Fatih Karagümrük goals

48%0
35%1
13%2
3%3
1%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
Fenerbahce win 78.6% 77.4% +1.2 pp
Draw 14.1% 14.9% -0.8 pp
Fatih Karagümrük win 7.3% 7.6% -0.4 pp
Over 2.5 67.4% 64.8% +2.6 pp
Both teams score 49.4% 48.1% +1.3 pp
Expected goals Fenerbahce 2.73 2.61 +0.12
Expected goals Fatih Karagümrük 0.74 0.72 +0.02

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • Fenerbahce win78.6%1.27
  • Draw14.1%7.09
  • Fatih Karagümrük win7.3%13.72
  • Double chance Fenerbahce or draw92.7%1.08
  • Double chance Fenerbahce or Fatih Karagümrük85.9%1.16
  • Double chance Fatih Karagümrük or draw21.4%4.68
  • Draw no bet Fenerbahce91.5%1.09
  • Draw no bet Fatih Karagümrük8.5%11.79

Goals

  • Over 0.596.6%1.04
  • Over 1.586.4%1.16
  • Over 2.567.4%1.48
  • Over 3.545.7%2.19
  • Over 4.526.9%3.72
  • Under 1.513.6%7.38
  • Under 2.532.6%3.07
  • Under 3.554.3%1.84

Both teams to score

  • Yes49.4%2.03
  • No50.6%1.98
  • Yes and over 2.542.7%2.34
  • Fenerbahce win and yes34.5%2.90
  • Draw and yes10.7%9.38
  • Fatih Karagümrük win and yes4.2%23.86

Team goals

  • Fenerbahce over 0.593.5%1.07
  • Fenerbahce over 1.575.6%1.32
  • Fenerbahce over 2.551.3%1.95
  • Fatih Karagümrük over 0.552.5%1.91
  • Fatih Karagümrük over 1.517.1%5.84
  • Fatih Karagümrük over 2.54.0%25.19
  • Fenerbahce clean sheet47.5%2.10
  • Fatih Karagümrük clean sheet6.5%15.30
  • Fenerbahce win to nil44.1%2.27
  • Fatih Karagümrük win to nil3.1%32.30

Handicap

  • Fenerbahce −1.558.4%1.71
  • Fenerbahce −2.536.8%2.72
  • Fatih Karagümrük +1.541.6%2.41
  • Fatih Karagümrük +2.563.2%1.58
  • Fatih Karagümrük −1.52.0%49.41
  • Fenerbahce +1.598.0%1.02

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored77 Favourite won45.5% Avg chance given to result40.3% 1X2 Brier0.592 Over 2.5 called right58.4% BTTS called right51.9%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%1038.1%10.0%
40–50%3744.2%32.4%
50–60%1555.2%66.7%
60–70%1065.8%80.0%
70–80%475.6%75.0%
80%+180.2%100.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 53 of 77 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.60860.5861
Avg chance given to result39.2%41.1%
Favourite won47.2%50.9%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 53 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 77 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.