Fenerbahce
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Europa League
Matchday 5 Thu, Nov 27 · 17:45
Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul
Our take
Fenerbahce were slight favourites.
Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 45). Absences weigh more on Fenerbahce. Fenerbahce had 4 days of rest, Ferencvarosi TC 20.9 and had to travel 1,067 km.
Away travel1,067 kmRest days4 · 20.9Matches / 14d1 · 0
Fenerbahce58%
Draw23%
Ferencvarosi TC19%
Fenerbahce58%
Draw24%
Ferencvarosi TC19%
Fenerbahce59%
Draw23%
Ferencvarosi TC18%
Fenerbahce50%
Draw25%
Ferencvarosi TC25%
Fenerbahce57%
Draw24%
Ferencvarosi TC20%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainRicardo De Burgos Bengoetxea
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 37
Team strength
Fenerbahce
Ferencvarosi TC
68
L90 StrengthIn forecast
45
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
57
75
AttackIn forecast
61
53
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFerencvarosi TC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FenerbahceFerencvarosi TC
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.68
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.88
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
75%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
12.75
ShotsContext
12.50
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.25
35%
On target shareContext
42%
6.25
Shots in the boxContext
9.25
44%
Box shareContext
75%
8%
ConversionContext
16%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.25
Shots allowedContext
12.75
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.25
BlocksContext
4.25
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
91%
Save rateContext
67%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
429
PassesContext
388
350
Accurate passesContext
314
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.94
9.50
FoulsContext
15.25
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
4.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.68
0.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.88
+0.37
Goals minus xGContext
+0.42
80%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
18.60
ShotsContext
13.60
8.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
43%
On target shareContext
37%
10.40
Shots in the boxContext
9.90
55%
Box shareContext
73%
12%
ConversionContext
15%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.50
9.70
Shots allowedContext
11.30
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.56
2.78
BlocksContext
3.25
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
83%
Save rateContext
67%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
439
PassesContext
372
376
Accurate passesContext
298
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.96
12.00
FoulsContext
15.50
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
3.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fenerbahce
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,940 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Ferencvarosi TC
Rest20.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel1,067 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fenerbahce |
Ferencvarosi TC |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4Süper Lig 2025-2026, 23 Nov | 20.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 6 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,067 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,940 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fenerbahce
Confirmed XI
31Ederson(G)
3A. Brown
14Y. Demir
37M. Škriniar
27Nélson Semedo
11E. Álvarez
9M. Aktürkoğlu
21Marco Asensio
94Talisca
70O. Aydın
19Y. En-Nesyri
Ferencvarosi TC
Confirmed XI
90D. Dibusz(G)
22G. Szalai
28T. Raemaekers
27I. Cissé
20Cadu
36G. Kanichowsky
5N. Keïta
16K. Zachariassen
25Č. Makreckis
11B. Yusuf
19B. Varga
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fenerbahce
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Ferencvarosi TC
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fenerbahce-1.1 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Ferencvarosi TC+0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Fenerbahce · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Ferencvarosi TC · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Fenerbahce | Ferencvarosi TC |
|---|---|---|
| Plzen | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Fenerbahce | Ferencvarosi TC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.00 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Fenerbahce | Ferencvarosi TC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.00 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fenerbahce | Ferencvarosi TC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.75 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.75 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 7.75 | 9.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 3/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 75% 3/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 4.00 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 1.25 | |
| Match total | 6.25 | 4.25 | 4.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 4/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Fenerbahce | Ferencvarosi TC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 7.20 | 9.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.20 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 6.20 | 4.60 | 4.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea Spain · 37 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.57league 4.04
Red cards0.22league 0.17
Cards 5+32%league 43%
Fouls22.1league 24.8
Penalties0.22league 0.39
Home wins51%league 49%
FenerbahceNo previous matches with this referee.
Ferencvarosi TC1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W22 Jul 25A · FC Noah2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fenerbahce4 games · scored 4 · conceded 4
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Ferencvarosi TC4 games · scored 8 · conceded 4
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
4
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 23 · conceded 8
2
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
6
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
6
76-90
Ferencvarosi TC10 games · scored 21 · conceded 13
3
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
7
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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