Fenerbahce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Süper Lig
Gameweek 27 Tue, Mar 17 · 17:00
Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul
Fenerbahce
2nd · 57 pts · 26 played
WDDWL
4–1Full time
Gazişehir Gaziantep
9th · 33 pts · 26 played
LLDDW
Our take
Fenerbahce were slight favourites.
Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Gazişehir Gaziantep. Fenerbahce had 4 days of rest, Gazişehir Gaziantep 4 and had to travel 850 km.
Away travel850 kmRest days4 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 2
Fenerbahce58%
Draw24%
Gazişehir Gaziantep19%
Fenerbahce70%
Draw19%
Gazişehir Gaziantep11%
Fenerbahce58%
Draw24%
Gazişehir Gaziantep18%
Fenerbahce50%
Draw26%
Gazişehir Gaziantep24%
Fenerbahce56%
Draw24%
Gazişehir Gaziantep19%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeKadir Saglam
- Cards per match 5.1
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 15
Team strength
FenerbahceGazişehir Gaziantep
62
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
75
AttackIn forecast
15
53
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGazişehir Gaziantep
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FenerbahceGazişehir Gaziantep
2.19
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.35
1.04
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.62
1.74
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
0.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.45
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
88%
Scored inContext
73%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
16.69
ShotsContext
12.73
5.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.52
35%
On target shareContext
34%
9.77
Shots in the boxContext
7.77
58%
Box shareContext
60%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.10
OffsidesContext
1.80
9.65
Shots allowedContext
13.35
3.23
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.88
3.29
BlocksContext
3.35
2.61
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.28
76%
Save rateContext
65%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
473
PassesContext
373
407
Accurate passesContext
307
86%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.81
11.58
FoulsContext
13.15
13.92
Fouls sufferedContext
16.50
2.31
Yellow cardsContext
3.04
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.15
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.56
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
80%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.20
ShotsContext
11.10
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.56
36%
On target shareContext
37%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.30
57%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.14
OffsidesContext
1.60
11.80
Shots allowedContext
12.80
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
2.30
BlocksContext
3.40
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
69%
Save rateContext
61%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
470
PassesContext
332
399
Accurate passesContext
267
85%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.76
9.50
FoulsContext
13.60
14.30
Fouls sufferedContext
17.10
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
3.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fenerbahce
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel850 km1,188 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fenerbahce |
Gazişehir Gaziantep |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4Süper Lig 2025-2026, 13 Mar | 4Süper Lig 2025-2026, 13 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 850 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 1,188 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 6 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 19 | 17.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fenerbahce
Confirmed XI
31Ederson(G)
3A. Brown
24J. Oosterwolde
14Y. Demir
22M. Mercan
17N. Kanté
6M. Guendouzi
20A. Musaba
21Marco Asensio
45D. Nene
26S. Chérif
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Confirmed XI
71M. Bozan(G)
5N. Mujakić
14L. Abena
23T. Sanuç
32Y. Kabadayı
17K. Gassama
6M. Kabasakal
10K. Kozłowski
2Luis Pérez
44A. Maxim
9M. Bayo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fenerbahce
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fenerbahce-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Gazişehir Gaziantep+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Fenerbahce · Home
2.33points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-4-0
- Scored
- 2.25
- Conceded
- 1.00
Gazişehir Gaziantep · Away
1.31points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-4
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 1.54
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Fenerbahce | Gazişehir Gaziantep |
|---|---|---|
| Fatih Karagümrük | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Samsunspor | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Antalyaspor | D 2–2 AW 2–0 H | W 4–1 AW 3–2 H |
| Kasimpasa | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | W 2–1 HW 3–2 A |
| Trabzonspor | W 3–2 AW 1–0 H | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Genclerbirligi | W 3–1 HW 3–1 A | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Kocaelispor | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H |
| Goztepe | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Alanyaspor | W 3–2 AD 2–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Eyüpspor | W 3–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Konyaspor | W 4–0 H | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | D 1–1 A | L 1–5 A |
| Galatasaray | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Rizespor | W 5–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Kayserispor | W 4–2 H | W 3–0 A |
| Besiktas | W 3–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 54 of 75 · 2.16 per game | 33 of 75 · 1.32 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
5 Fenerbahce wins0 draws0 Gazişehir Gaziantep wins
Goals per game2.60 – 0.60
Over 2.580%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets40% · 0%
- 27 Oct 2025Gazişehir Gaziantep0–4Fenerbahce
- 26 Apr 2025Gazişehir Gaziantep1–3Fenerbahce
- 2 Dec 2024Fenerbahce3–1Gazişehir Gaziantep
- 14 Jan 2024Gazişehir Gaziantep0–1Fenerbahce
- 13 Aug 2023Fenerbahce2–1Gazişehir Gaziantep
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fenerbahce | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.19 | 1.35 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.04 | 1.62 | |
| Match goals | 3.23 | 2.96 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 65% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 62% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 12% | 27% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Fenerbahce | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.90 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fenerbahce | Gazişehir Gaziantep | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.48 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.57 | 5.04 | |
| Match total | 11.05 | 10.24 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 74% 17/23 | 56% 14/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 61% 14/23 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 52% 12/23 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.35 | 3.23 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.15 | 3.08 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 6.31 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 77% 20/26 | 88% 23/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 58% 15/26 | 77% 20/26 | |
| Fenerbahce | Gazişehir Gaziantep | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.70 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 5.60 | |
| Match total | 12.10 | 10.10 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 3.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 5.90 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Kadir Saglam Türkiye · 15 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.07league 4.41
Red cards0.07league 0.21
Cards 5+53%league 45%
Fouls28.7league 25.9
Penalties0.20league 0.26
Home wins27%league 38%
FenerbahceNo previous matches with this referee.
Gazişehir Gaziantep2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.5.5 · 3.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D25 Jan 26H · Konyaspor1–16
- D8 Dec 25A · Besiktas2–25
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fenerbahce26 games · scored 57 · conceded 27
7
7
0-15
8
7
16-30
13
3
31-45
6
4
46-60
9
3
61-75
14
3
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep26 games · scored 35 · conceded 42
4
6
0-15
5
10
16-30
8
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
10
6
61-75
5
14
76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 17 · conceded 15
2
3
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep10 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
1
0-15
3
5
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
