Fenerbahce
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Süper Lig
Gameweek 27 Tue, Mar 17 · 17:00
Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul
Fenerbahce
2nd · 57 pts · 26 played
WDDWL
4–1Full time
Gazişehir Gaziantep
9th · 33 pts · 26 played
LLDDW
Fenerbahce57.7%fair odds 1.73
Draw23.6%fair odds 4.23
Gazişehir Gaziantep18.6%fair odds 5.37
Expected goals1.85 – 0.96total 2.81
Likeliest score1–111.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Gazişehir Gaziantep
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Fenerbahce ↓ · Gazişehir Gaziantep → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.3 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Fenerbahce goals, columns Gazişehir Gaziantep goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.3%8.88
- 1–010.6%9.44
- 2–010.3%9.69
- 2–19.9%10.11
- 0–06.6%15.16
- 3–06.4%15.71
- 3–16.1%16.40
- 0–15.2%19.19
- 1–25.1%19.52
- 2–24.7%21.10
Winning margin
15.9%
Fenerbahce by 3+
fair 6.28
17.9%
Fenerbahce by 2
fair 5.57
23.9%
Fenerbahce by 1
fair 4.19
23.6%
Draw
fair 4.23
12.1%
Gazişehir Gaziantep by 1
fair 8.27
4.8%
Gazişehir Gaziantep by 2
fair 20.77
1.7%
Gazişehir Gaziantep by 3+
fair 58.27
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
15%5+
Fenerbahce goals
16%0
29%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+
Gazişehir Gaziantep goals
38%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 57.7% | 56.5% | +1.3 pp |
| Draw | 23.6% | 24.4% | -0.7 pp |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep win | 18.6% | 19.2% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.3% | 51.0% | +2.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.5% | 51.2% | +1.3 pp |
| Expected goals Fenerbahce | 1.85 | 1.78 | +0.07 |
| Expected goals Gazişehir Gaziantep | 0.96 | 0.94 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Fenerbahce win57.7%1.73
- Draw23.6%4.23
- Gazişehir Gaziantep win18.6%5.37
- Double chance Fenerbahce or draw81.4%1.23
- Double chance Fenerbahce or Gazişehir Gaziantep76.4%1.31
- Double chance Gazişehir Gaziantep or draw42.3%2.37
- Draw no bet Fenerbahce75.6%1.32
- Draw no bet Gazişehir Gaziantep24.4%4.10
Goals
- Over 0.593.4%1.07
- Over 1.577.6%1.29
- Over 2.553.3%1.88
- Over 3.531.0%3.23
- Over 4.515.4%6.51
- Under 1.522.4%4.46
- Under 2.546.7%2.14
- Under 3.569.0%1.45
Both teams to score
- Yes52.5%1.90
- No47.5%2.11
- Yes and over 2.541.3%2.42
- Fenerbahce win and yes26.0%3.85
- Draw and yes17.0%5.87
- Gazişehir Gaziantep win and yes9.5%10.53
Team goals
- Fenerbahce over 0.584.3%1.19
- Fenerbahce over 1.555.2%1.81
- Fenerbahce over 2.528.3%3.54
- Gazişehir Gaziantep over 0.561.6%1.62
- Gazişehir Gaziantep over 1.524.9%4.02
- Gazişehir Gaziantep over 2.57.3%13.74
- Fenerbahce clean sheet38.4%2.61
- Gazişehir Gaziantep clean sheet15.7%6.36
- Fenerbahce win to nil31.8%3.15
- Gazişehir Gaziantep win to nil9.1%10.96
Handicap
- Fenerbahce −1.533.9%2.95
- Fenerbahce −2.515.9%6.28
- Gazişehir Gaziantep +1.566.1%1.51
- Gazişehir Gaziantep +2.584.1%1.19
- Gazişehir Gaziantep −1.56.5%15.31
- Fenerbahce +1.593.5%1.07
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored234
Favourite won50.4%
Avg chance given to result40.7%
1X2 Brier0.588
Over 2.5 called right53.0%
BTTS called right53.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 33 | 38.1% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 94 | 44.1% | 39.4% |
| 50–60% | 62 | 54.9% | 56.5% |
| 60–70% | 26 | 65.0% | 73.1% |
| 70–80% | 15 | 76.0% | 80.0% |
| 80%+ | 4 | 82.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 184 of 234 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5930 | 0.5811 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.5% | 41.6% |
| Favourite won | 51.6% | 52.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 184 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 234 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.