Fenerbahce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Süper Lig
Gameweek 23 Mon, Feb 23 · 17:00
Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul
Our take
Fenerbahce were clear favourites.
Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Kasimpasa. Fenerbahce had 4 days of rest, Kasimpasa 7 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days4 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 2
Fenerbahce70%
Draw19%
Kasimpasa11%
Fenerbahce76%
Draw16%
Kasimpasa8%
Fenerbahce69%
Draw19%
Kasimpasa12%
Fenerbahce63%
Draw22%
Kasimpasa16%
Fenerbahce68%
Draw20%
Kasimpasa12%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
RefereeYasin Kol
- Cards per match 5.6
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 32
Team strength
Fenerbahce
Kasimpasa
66
L90 StrengthIn forecast
17
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
75
AttackIn forecast
21
53
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKasimpasa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FenerbahceKasimpasa
2.32
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.86
0.91
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.41
1.87
xGVia Att/Def
0.81
0.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
+0.45
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
91%
Scored inContext
59%
36%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
16.91
ShotsContext
9.95
6.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
36%
On target shareContext
26%
10.05
Shots in the boxContext
6.14
59%
Box shareContext
59%
14%
ConversionContext
9%
2.18
OffsidesContext
1.94
9.91
Shots allowedContext
11.32
3.14
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.86
3.65
BlocksContext
3.25
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
78%
Save rateContext
70%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
466
PassesContext
335
401
Accurate passesContext
264
86%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.73
12.05
FoulsContext
15.32
13.41
Fouls sufferedContext
12.82
2.36
Yellow cardsContext
2.23
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.05
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.54
xGVia Att/Def
0.81
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.92
+0.46
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
80%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.00
ShotsContext
8.40
5.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.25
41%
On target shareContext
31%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
5.89
58%
Box shareContext
64%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
2.71
OffsidesContext
2.22
13.10
Shots allowedContext
10.70
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.88
BlocksContext
3.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
71%
Save rateContext
67%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
483
PassesContext
336
418
Accurate passesContext
265
87%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.70
10.50
FoulsContext
16.20
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fenerbahce
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,807 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Kasimpasa
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,700 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fenerbahce |
Kasimpasa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 20 | Low · 5 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout play-offs, 19 Feb | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 16 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,807 km | 1,700 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.1 | 4.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fenerbahce
Confirmed XI
31Ederson(G)
22M. Mercan
24J. Oosterwolde
4Ç. Söyüncü
27Nélson Semedo
5İ. Yüksek
6M. Guendouzi
20A. Musaba
21Marco Asensio
45D. Nene
94Talisca
Kasimpasa
Confirmed XI
1A. Gianniotis(G)
21G. Frimpong
4Adem Arous
20N. Opoku
22K. Çörekçi
71İ. Kahveci
16A. Baldursson
19A. Benedyczak
12A. Ben Ouanes
34F. Diabaté
23C. Tosun
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fenerbahce
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Kasimpasa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fenerbahce+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Kasimpasa-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Fenerbahce · Home
2.40points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-0
- Scored
- 2.30
- Conceded
- 0.90
Kasimpasa · Away
1.00points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-6
- Scored
- 0.91
- Conceded
- 1.45
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Fenerbahce | Kasimpasa |
|---|---|---|
| Trabzonspor | W 3–2 AW 1–0 H | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Genclerbirligi | W 3–1 HW 3–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Kocaelispor | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Goztepe | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Alanyaspor | W 3–2 AD 2–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Eyüpspor | W 3–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| Konyaspor | W 4–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | D 1–1 A | L 1–3 H |
| Galatasaray | D 1–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| Rizespor | W 5–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Kayserispor | W 4–2 H | L 2–3 A |
| Besiktas | W 3–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 4–0 A | L 1–2 AL 2–3 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 2–1 H | W 3–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Samsunspor | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Antalyaspor | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Points | 51 of 63 · 2.43 per game | 18 of 63 · 0.86 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
4 Fenerbahce wins1 draws0 Kasimpasa wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.60
Over 2.540%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets40% · 0%
- 21 Sep 2025Kasimpasa1–1Fenerbahce
- 16 Feb 2025Fenerbahce3–1Kasimpasa
- 15 Sep 2024Kasimpasa0–2Fenerbahce
- 24 Feb 2024Fenerbahce2–1Kasimpasa
- 8 Oct 2023Kasimpasa0–2Fenerbahce
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fenerbahce | Kasimpasa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.32 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.91 | 1.41 | |
| Match goals | 3.23 | 2.27 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 68% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 45% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 55% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 36% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 9% | 41% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Fenerbahce | Kasimpasa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.20 | 3.07 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fenerbahce | Kasimpasa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.74 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 4.45 | |
| Match total | 10.63 | 9.25 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 68% 13/19 | 50% 10/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 58% 11/19 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 47% 9/19 | 25% 5/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.41 | 2.36 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.09 | 2.18 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 4.54 | 4.70 |
| Over 3.5 | 77% 17/22 | 73% 16/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 59% 13/22 | 36% 8/22 | |
| Fenerbahce | Kasimpasa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.10 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 11.10 | 8.80 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 4.70 | 4.70 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Yasin Kol 32 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.16league 4.46
Red cards0.41league 0.22
Cards 5+63%league 47%
Fouls26.9league 26.0
Penalties0.31league 0.26
Home wins34%league 38%
Fenerbahce4 with this referee
Record1-2-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.3
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- D1 Dec 25H · Galatasaray1–13
- D16 Aug 25A · Goztepe0–04
- L4 May 25H · Besiktas0–13
- W13 Apr 25A · Sivasspor3–12
Kasimpasa2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.5
Pens for · against2 · 1
- W2 Feb 25A · Adana Demirspor5–32
- W24 Sep 23H · Adana Demirspor2–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fenerbahce22 games · scored 51 · conceded 20
6
5
0-15
8
6
16-30
13
1
31-45
6
3
46-60
7
3
61-75
11
2
76-90
Kasimpasa22 games · scored 19 · conceded 31
6
0-15
3
5
16-30
4
5
31-45
2
4
46-60
7
2
61-75
3
9
76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 20 · conceded 11
2
2
0-15
7
4
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
76-90
Kasimpasa10 games · scored 8 · conceded 14
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
61-75
1
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
